SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531

1 year ago
WW 531 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 140700Z - 141300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 531 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Iowa Southwestern Minnesota Northeastern Nebraska East-central and southeastern South Dakota * Effective this Sunday morning from 200 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 90 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized, bowing thunderstorm complex, with a history of numerous, measured, significant severe gusts (65+ kt) in western and central SD, should continue to pose a threat for severe wind as it moves through much of the watch area through dawn. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Mitchell SD to 25 miles north northeast of Spencer IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 527...WW 528...WW 529...WW 530... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29050. ...Edwards Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

1 year ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141113
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this
system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portion of the basin during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NHC Webmaster

SPC MD 1611

1 year ago
MD 1611 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531... FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1611 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...Far Northeast Nebraska...Far Northwest Iowa...Far Southwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531... Valid 140858Z - 141100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe gusts may persist in parts of eastern South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska over the next couple of hours. The threat could also impact far northwest Iowa and far southwest Minnesota, but is expected to become more isolated with time. DISCUSSION...According to mosaic radar imagery, a decaying MCS is ongoing across central and eastern South Dakota. Severe gusts are still occurring, in association with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. As the stronger cells within the complex move east-southeastward into a pocket of moderate to strong instability, severe gusts will be possible over the next one to two hours. However, the MCS is expected to continue weakening, and any potential for severe gusts is expected to become increasingly isolated. ..Broyles.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 44979631 45069759 44849862 44009902 43139905 42449873 42209759 42279623 42879560 43729539 44609561 44979631 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LNR TO 20 NW VOK TO 35 SW CWA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC081-141040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LNR TO 20 NW VOK TO 35 SW CWA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC081-141040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LNR TO 20 NW VOK TO 35 SW CWA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC081-141040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LNR TO 20 NW VOK TO 35 SW CWA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC081-141040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-141040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC023-033-063-073-081-083-101-105-117-127-133-173-141040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD ROCK YELLOW MEDICINE NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-141040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-141040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC023-033-063-073-081-083-101-105-117-127-133-173-141040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD ROCK YELLOW MEDICINE NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-141040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC MD 1610

1 year ago
MD 1610 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 528...530... FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND FAR NORTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...far western Wisconsin...and far northeast Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528...530... Valid 140750Z - 140945Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528, 530 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail is expected to persist for at least the next 1-2 hours before gradually diminishing after roughly 10 UTC. DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery over the past 30 minutes continues to show strong updraft pulses embedded within a broader, loosely organized MCS that is slowly pushing south along the MS River. Reflectivity and velocity data from KARX show new convection developing along/just behind a consolidating outflow boundary, suggesting that portions of the MCS may become better organized in the short term. Additionally, weak convection on the western flank of the outflow has shown some signs of modest intensification, possibly due to an ingesting of higher theta-e air to the west of outflow from prior convection. Given these trends, a severe hail and wind risk should persist for the next 1-2 hours. However, the longevity of this complex remains unclear as it moves into an air mass that has already seen some degree of convective overturning (mainly across northeast IA into southwest WI). Mean deep-level flow parallel to the MCS should limit the potential for bowing segments if a balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone can be established, and storm motions along the boundary should limit individual storm longevity (and any attendant severe hail threat). As such, confidence in the severe potential after roughly 10 UTC is low and downstream watch issuance is not currently anticipated. Trends will be monitored for intensification on the western flank of the MCS that may favor a propagation along the aforementioned low-level theta-e gradient, which could prolong the severe threat. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 43459326 43769343 44039332 44169303 44299232 44239185 43979117 43769031 43479025 43209041 43099106 43119166 43179220 43269272 43459326 Read more

SPC Jul 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place across much of western North America on D4/Wednesday, with this ridging expected to persist through the weekend. Upper troughing will likely extend from northern Quebec through Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Mid MS Valley early D4/Wednesday. Primary portion of this upper trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the remainder of Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Wednesday and the Northeast on D5/Thursday, but modest upper troughing is expected to remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS into the weekend. At the same time, a cold front will gradually push southward/southeastward across the central Plains, OH Valley, and Northeast on D4/Wednesday and northern part of the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley on D5/Thursday. Some limited severe potential may exist across the Northeast on D4/Wednesday before the front clears the region. After D4/Wednesday, progression of the front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much of the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend. The only exception is across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. Read more

SPC Jul 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place across much of western North America on D4/Wednesday, with this ridging expected to persist through the weekend. Upper troughing will likely extend from northern Quebec through Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Mid MS Valley early D4/Wednesday. Primary portion of this upper trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the remainder of Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Wednesday and the Northeast on D5/Thursday, but modest upper troughing is expected to remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS into the weekend. At the same time, a cold front will gradually push southward/southeastward across the central Plains, OH Valley, and Northeast on D4/Wednesday and northern part of the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley on D5/Thursday. Some limited severe potential may exist across the Northeast on D4/Wednesday before the front clears the region. After D4/Wednesday, progression of the front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much of the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend. The only exception is across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. Read more

SPC Jul 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place across much of western North America on D4/Wednesday, with this ridging expected to persist through the weekend. Upper troughing will likely extend from northern Quebec through Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Mid MS Valley early D4/Wednesday. Primary portion of this upper trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the remainder of Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Wednesday and the Northeast on D5/Thursday, but modest upper troughing is expected to remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS into the weekend. At the same time, a cold front will gradually push southward/southeastward across the central Plains, OH Valley, and Northeast on D4/Wednesday and northern part of the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley on D5/Thursday. Some limited severe potential may exist across the Northeast on D4/Wednesday before the front clears the region. After D4/Wednesday, progression of the front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much of the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend. The only exception is across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. Read more

SPC Jul 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place across much of western North America on D4/Wednesday, with this ridging expected to persist through the weekend. Upper troughing will likely extend from northern Quebec through Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Mid MS Valley early D4/Wednesday. Primary portion of this upper trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the remainder of Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Wednesday and the Northeast on D5/Thursday, but modest upper troughing is expected to remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS into the weekend. At the same time, a cold front will gradually push southward/southeastward across the central Plains, OH Valley, and Northeast on D4/Wednesday and northern part of the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley on D5/Thursday. Some limited severe potential may exist across the Northeast on D4/Wednesday before the front clears the region. After D4/Wednesday, progression of the front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much of the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend. The only exception is across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. Read more

SPC Jul 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place across much of western North America on D4/Wednesday, with this ridging expected to persist through the weekend. Upper troughing will likely extend from northern Quebec through Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Mid MS Valley early D4/Wednesday. Primary portion of this upper trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the remainder of Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Wednesday and the Northeast on D5/Thursday, but modest upper troughing is expected to remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS into the weekend. At the same time, a cold front will gradually push southward/southeastward across the central Plains, OH Valley, and Northeast on D4/Wednesday and northern part of the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley on D5/Thursday. Some limited severe potential may exist across the Northeast on D4/Wednesday before the front clears the region. After D4/Wednesday, progression of the front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much of the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend. The only exception is across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. Read more

SPC Jul 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place across much of western North America on D4/Wednesday, with this ridging expected to persist through the weekend. Upper troughing will likely extend from northern Quebec through Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Mid MS Valley early D4/Wednesday. Primary portion of this upper trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the remainder of Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Wednesday and the Northeast on D5/Thursday, but modest upper troughing is expected to remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS into the weekend. At the same time, a cold front will gradually push southward/southeastward across the central Plains, OH Valley, and Northeast on D4/Wednesday and northern part of the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley on D5/Thursday. Some limited severe potential may exist across the Northeast on D4/Wednesday before the front clears the region. After D4/Wednesday, progression of the front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much of the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend. The only exception is across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. Read more

SPC Jul 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place across much of western North America on D4/Wednesday, with this ridging expected to persist through the weekend. Upper troughing will likely extend from northern Quebec through Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Mid MS Valley early D4/Wednesday. Primary portion of this upper trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the remainder of Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Wednesday and the Northeast on D5/Thursday, but modest upper troughing is expected to remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS into the weekend. At the same time, a cold front will gradually push southward/southeastward across the central Plains, OH Valley, and Northeast on D4/Wednesday and northern part of the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley on D5/Thursday. Some limited severe potential may exist across the Northeast on D4/Wednesday before the front clears the region. After D4/Wednesday, progression of the front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much of the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend. The only exception is across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. Read more

SPC Jul 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place across much of western North America on D4/Wednesday, with this ridging expected to persist through the weekend. Upper troughing will likely extend from northern Quebec through Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Mid MS Valley early D4/Wednesday. Primary portion of this upper trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the remainder of Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Wednesday and the Northeast on D5/Thursday, but modest upper troughing is expected to remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS into the weekend. At the same time, a cold front will gradually push southward/southeastward across the central Plains, OH Valley, and Northeast on D4/Wednesday and northern part of the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley on D5/Thursday. Some limited severe potential may exist across the Northeast on D4/Wednesday before the front clears the region. After D4/Wednesday, progression of the front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much of the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend. The only exception is across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. Read more

SPC Jul 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place across much of western North America on D4/Wednesday, with this ridging expected to persist through the weekend. Upper troughing will likely extend from northern Quebec through Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Mid MS Valley early D4/Wednesday. Primary portion of this upper trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the remainder of Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Wednesday and the Northeast on D5/Thursday, but modest upper troughing is expected to remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS into the weekend. At the same time, a cold front will gradually push southward/southeastward across the central Plains, OH Valley, and Northeast on D4/Wednesday and northern part of the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley on D5/Thursday. Some limited severe potential may exist across the Northeast on D4/Wednesday before the front clears the region. After D4/Wednesday, progression of the front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much of the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend. The only exception is across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. Read more

SPC Jul 14, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 year ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place across much of western North America on D4/Wednesday, with this ridging expected to persist through the weekend. Upper troughing will likely extend from northern Quebec through Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Mid MS Valley early D4/Wednesday. Primary portion of this upper trough is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the remainder of Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Wednesday and the Northeast on D5/Thursday, but modest upper troughing is expected to remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS into the weekend. At the same time, a cold front will gradually push southward/southeastward across the central Plains, OH Valley, and Northeast on D4/Wednesday and northern part of the southern Plains, Mid-South, and TN Valley on D5/Thursday. Some limited severe potential may exist across the Northeast on D4/Wednesday before the front clears the region. After D4/Wednesday, progression of the front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much of the central and eastern CONUS through the weekend. The only exception is across the High Plains, where modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles could support a few strong to severe storms each afternoon. Read more