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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW BHK TO 25 NE MLS TO 30 NNW SDY. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 493 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01/07Z. ..KERR..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-025-079-083-087-109-010700- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FALLON PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROSEBUD WIBAUX NDC007-033-053-010700- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 493 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 010245Z - 010700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana Western North Dakota * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 845 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to intensify and pose a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) and large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter). This thunderstorm activity will probably grow upscale into a linear cluster as it moves east-northeast across the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Sidney MT to 35 miles south southwest of Miles City MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress eastward into the northern and central Plains today. The upper-level ridge within the southern Plains will weaken in response and shift gradually eastward as well. At the surface, the anticyclone within the East will broaden, pushing a surface boundary farther into Southeast. Within the broader lee trough, a surface low is forecast to deepen near the CO/KS/NE border region and shift eastward through the afternoon. The combination of the surface high to the east and the deepening surface cyclone in the central Plains will advect rich low-level moisture northward through the day into south-central and southeast Nebraska and perhaps somewhat farther northwestward. Southerly flow within the northern Plains will also move low 60s F dewpoints currently in Kansas into the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Based on surface observations Sunday evening, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints appear probable to reach portions of Nebraska (potentially as far west as the Panhandle). Though some form of convection currently in eastern Colorado/western Nebraska may be ongoing early in the day Monday, this activity is forecast to weaken and move east by early afternoon. Thereafter, very strong heating is expected west of a dryline feature. Modest height falls should aid in thunderstorm development near the surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Initial development should be supercellular given large buoyancy (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45-55 kts of effective shear. Low-level shear enhancement near the warm front will promote some risk of tornadoes so long as convection remains discrete. Large hail and severe winds will also be possible. 2+ inch hail could occur, but probability appears low due to warm temperatures within the hail growth zone and high freezing levels. Weaker shear near the anvil levels as well as somewhat high temperature-dewpoint spreads should lead to quick upscale growth. This transition to linear mode will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind threat, some potentially 75+ mph. There is potential for storm development along the remnant surface front/outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. Should a storm form, it would likely be severe. With limited background ascent this far south, confidence in storm initiation is quite low. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid-level ascent in combination with a north-south oriented boundary will promote scattered storms across the region. Surface heating will be less on account of cloud cover, but sufficient low-level moisture will bring around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though 40-45 kts of shear will be across the boundary, forcing should promote decidedly more linear storm modes than farther south. Large hail and severe winds will the be primary threats. A tornado or two could occur given the ambient vorticity along the boundary. ...North Florida into Georgia and coastal South Carolina... Ongoing convection Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris present into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds. MLCAPE of perhaps near 3000 J/kg appears possible by the afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, as will effective shear (around 20-25 kts), but a few damaging gusts are possible especially with any clusters that may form. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 Read more