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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible today across parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota southward in the mid Missouri Valley. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of the central and southern Plains. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move northeastward through the northern High Plains today, as an associated mid-level speed max translates northeastward through the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will move through northeastern Montana, with a trough extending southward across the High Plains. To the east of the trough in the mid Missouri Valley and northern Plains, surface dewpoints will generally be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm today, moderate instability will develop within a narrow corridor from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the surface trough near the instability axis during the afternoon. These storms will move northeastward across the eastern portion of the central and northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Thu near the instability axis at Sioux Falls, South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. Some speed shear is evident in lowest 3 km, and low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, peaking in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support supercell development during the late afternoon and early evening. Supercells will likely be capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Further south into the southern and central Plains, low-levels are forecast to be drier near the surface trough, with dewpoints expected to be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. For this reason, instability is expected to remain relative weak today. This, combined with limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat isolated and marginal. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible today across parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota southward in the mid Missouri Valley. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of the central and southern Plains. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move northeastward through the northern High Plains today, as an associated mid-level speed max translates northeastward through the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will move through northeastern Montana, with a trough extending southward across the High Plains. To the east of the trough in the mid Missouri Valley and northern Plains, surface dewpoints will generally be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm today, moderate instability will develop within a narrow corridor from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the surface trough near the instability axis during the afternoon. These storms will move northeastward across the eastern portion of the central and northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Thu near the instability axis at Sioux Falls, South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. Some speed shear is evident in lowest 3 km, and low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, peaking in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support supercell development during the late afternoon and early evening. Supercells will likely be capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Further south into the southern and central Plains, low-levels are forecast to be drier near the surface trough, with dewpoints expected to be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. For this reason, instability is expected to remain relative weak today. This, combined with limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat isolated and marginal. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible today across parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota southward in the mid Missouri Valley. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of the central and southern Plains. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move northeastward through the northern High Plains today, as an associated mid-level speed max translates northeastward through the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will move through northeastern Montana, with a trough extending southward across the High Plains. To the east of the trough in the mid Missouri Valley and northern Plains, surface dewpoints will generally be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm today, moderate instability will develop within a narrow corridor from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the surface trough near the instability axis during the afternoon. These storms will move northeastward across the eastern portion of the central and northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Thu near the instability axis at Sioux Falls, South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. Some speed shear is evident in lowest 3 km, and low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, peaking in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support supercell development during the late afternoon and early evening. Supercells will likely be capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Further south into the southern and central Plains, low-levels are forecast to be drier near the surface trough, with dewpoints expected to be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. For this reason, instability is expected to remain relative weak today. This, combined with limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat isolated and marginal. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible today across parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota southward in the mid Missouri Valley. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of the central and southern Plains. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move northeastward through the northern High Plains today, as an associated mid-level speed max translates northeastward through the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will move through northeastern Montana, with a trough extending southward across the High Plains. To the east of the trough in the mid Missouri Valley and northern Plains, surface dewpoints will generally be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm today, moderate instability will develop within a narrow corridor from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the surface trough near the instability axis during the afternoon. These storms will move northeastward across the eastern portion of the central and northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Thu near the instability axis at Sioux Falls, South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. Some speed shear is evident in lowest 3 km, and low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, peaking in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support supercell development during the late afternoon and early evening. Supercells will likely be capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Further south into the southern and central Plains, low-levels are forecast to be drier near the surface trough, with dewpoints expected to be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. For this reason, instability is expected to remain relative weak today. This, combined with limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat isolated and marginal. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible today across parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota southward in the mid Missouri Valley. A marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of the central and southern Plains. ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move northeastward through the northern High Plains today, as an associated mid-level speed max translates northeastward through the northern Plains. At the surface, a low will move through northeastern Montana, with a trough extending southward across the High Plains. To the east of the trough in the mid Missouri Valley and northern Plains, surface dewpoints will generally be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm today, moderate instability will develop within a narrow corridor from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to the east of the surface trough near the instability axis during the afternoon. These storms will move northeastward across the eastern portion of the central and northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z/Thu near the instability axis at Sioux Falls, South Dakota have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. Some speed shear is evident in lowest 3 km, and low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep, peaking in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support supercell development during the late afternoon and early evening. Supercells will likely be capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Further south into the southern and central Plains, low-levels are forecast to be drier near the surface trough, with dewpoints expected to be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. For this reason, instability is expected to remain relative weak today. This, combined with limited large-scale ascent will likely keep any severe threat isolated and marginal. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 09/18/2024 Read more

102
ABPZ20 KNHC 180509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

The number of Indiana counties with burn bans rose to 46, up from 26 the previous day. WWBL-FM (Washington, Ind.), Sept 18, 2024 Twenty-six of Indiana’s 92 counties have burn bans due to the drought status and fire danger. Many of the counties with the bans were in the southern part of the state. WWBL-FM (Washington, Ind.), Sept 17, 2024 There is a burn ban in Dubois County, Indiana including open burning except for campfires that are continuously attended. Campfires must be smaller than 48" in diameter and enclosed by a noncombustible barrier. Dubois County Herald (Vincennes, IN), Sept. 4, 2024.

Conditions in South Texas remained favorable due to recent rains, leading to an improvement in overall rangeland and pasture conditions. Most of the district reported rainfall of 0.5–3 inches, while other areas reported no rain. Pastures and rangeland continued to improve in areas that received rain and decline in drier areas. Livestock were in good condition, but some producers with overgrazed pastures were supplementing with hay, cubes and tubs, as well as molasses, protein and mineral. Cattle prices declined due to heavier harvest weights and a large supply. Feed prices remained high at local feed stores. Local ranchers began planning for fall sales of their weaned calves as they prepared for deer season. Irrigated forage was making good quality hay, and producers were optimistic about a possible second or third cutting if they received rain. Hay producers were baling hay, with some applying fertilizer after the previous week’s rain. Pastures looked good with adequate rainfall. Most row crop farmers were busy doing fieldwork. Cotton defoliation started, and early planted cotton was harvested. Peanut crops continued to mature under irrigation and digging was expected to begin in the coming weeks. Bermuda grass hay fields were cut and baled. Sesame harvest started but most fields were still too wet. A few vegetable producers planted cool-season crops, and citrus trees were sprayed. With the cooler temperatures, wildlife became more active and remained in good quantity and decent quality, with strong populations of whitetail deer, quail, and other game for the upcoming hunting seasons. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 17, 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms were reported along with cooler or average temperatures. A large part of the district received between 0.5-4.5 inches of rain. Live Oak County received rainfall totals ranging from 0.3-4 inches, however McMullen, Duval and Hidalgo counties did not receive significant rainfall. Prior to the rain, conditions were extremely hot, with temperatures exceeding 105 degrees, and varying degrees of dryness and humidity. The rainfall improved conditions for pastures and crops. Sesame harvest was about 85% complete with above-average yields reported, while cotton harvest was approximately 90% complete. Cotton stalk destruction was underway, with the stalk destruction deadline of Sept. 15. Most cotton acres in other counties were harvested, with varying yields and quality; any remaining cotton likely dropped in quality and some was expected to be shredded. Citrus and vegetables continued to be irrigated. Peanut producers reduced irrigation as harvest neared. Producers were preparing fields for fall and winter crops. Fall corn was thriving with the recent rains. Forage production was up, and hay fields looked good. Hay producers were baling across the counties, and a surplus of hay was noted. Livestock were in good condition, though some producers remained concerned about stock tank levels and continued to supplement feed with hay and cubes. Cattle prices remained steady to lower while sale volumes were steady to higher at most markets. Livestock and wildlife conditions improved due to the rainfall and cooler temperatures. Ranchers and deer producers were supplementing livestock and wildlife, and dove populations were abundant in many areas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 5, 2024

The Maumee River through Toledo was very dry with immense sand bars in the river. Under the Conant Street bridge, the foundation and water stain were showing. WTOL 11 (Toledo, Ohio), Sept 17, 2024

Livestock producers in eastern Ohio were struggling to care for their animals amid the drought. Hay was in short supply, and water sources were running dry. Many farmers began hauling water in mid-July. WTOV 9 FOX (Steubenville, Ohio), Sept 17, 2024

WW 0676 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 676 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE GUY TO 55 SSE GLD. ..SPC..09/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 676 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC055-067-081-093-171-175-189-180240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY GRANT HASKELL KEARNY SCOTT SEWARD STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0676 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 676 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE GUY TO 55 SSE GLD. ..SPC..09/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 676 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC055-067-081-093-171-175-189-180240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY GRANT HASKELL KEARNY SCOTT SEWARD STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 676 SEVERE TSTM KS 180005Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 676 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Kansas * Effective this Tuesday evening from 705 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of high-based thunderstorms will spread into southwest Kansas through the evening, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Garden City KS to 20 miles west southwest of Liberal KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 674...WW 675... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 2081 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA...WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Montana...western North Dakota...and northwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172325Z - 180200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and large hail should gradually increase over the next few hours. The area is being monitored for a possible watch, though timing is still uncertain. DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe storms have developed along a north/south-oriented confluence zone across eastern MT. These storms are evolving in an environment characterized by around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per regional VWP) and moderate surface-based instability -- supportive of organized clusters and supercell structures. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts could accompany this activity. During the next few hours, large-scale ascent preceding an approaching midlevel trough may encourage an uptick in convection from northeastern MT into western ND and northwestern SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear/mostly straight hodographs and steep deep-layer lapse rates should favor organized clusters and supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail. The overall timing and coverage of the severe threat still remains somewhat uncertain, and convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 44600402 46000472 46820548 47140652 47420795 47610861 48260896 48790884 49020819 49010575 48900484 48720435 48260376 46750285 45540234 44960227 44600266 44430348 44600402 Read more

MD 2082 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674...675... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674...675... Valid 172341Z - 180145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674, 675 continues. SUMMARY...Strong winds are the primary risk along the leading edge of a squall line as it propagates across the central High Plains. DISCUSSION...Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests mid-level short-wave trough is located over southeast CO, ejecting northeast into the central High Plains. Organized convection has evolved ahead of this feature, primarily expressed as a squall line which extends from southwest Yuma County CO-Baca County CO. Strong winds are likely associated with this squall line, and this is the primary risk as the squall line advances into western KS/southwest NE over the next 1-2 hours. ..Darrow.. 09/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37460250 39190230 40240282 40790133 39720082 37380154 37460250 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph). ...Southern and Central High Plains... A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6 km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening. ...Northern High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho, with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana. Additional storms have developed further south near the South Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow, Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near 40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will exist with the stronger storms. ..Broyles.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph). ...Southern and Central High Plains... A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6 km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening. ...Northern High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho, with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana. Additional storms have developed further south near the South Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow, Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near 40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will exist with the stronger storms. ..Broyles.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph). ...Southern and Central High Plains... A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6 km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening. ...Northern High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho, with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana. Additional storms have developed further south near the South Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow, Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near 40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will exist with the stronger storms. ..Broyles.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph). ...Southern and Central High Plains... A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6 km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening. ...Northern High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho, with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana. Additional storms have developed further south near the South Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow, Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near 40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will exist with the stronger storms. ..Broyles.. 09/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered to numerous severe wind gusts and hail will continue to develop across the High Plains this evening. Some of the wind gusts may be significant (75+ mph). ...Southern and Central High Plains... A mid-level low is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with cyclonic southwesterly flow located from the Four Corners into the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, a band of strong large-scale ascent appears to be spreading into the central High Plains, where a large plume of mid-level moisture is located. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this band of ascent, and are moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Concerning the shear environment, regional WSR-88D VWPs in east-central Colorado have 0-6 km shear from 40 to 50 knots, with some directional shear in the lowest 3 km. In addition, the RAP has a strengthening low-level jet analyzed from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into southeastern South Dakota. As the low-level jet continues to strengthen, the lift, shear and instability will continue to support severe thunderstorm development over the southern and central High Plains this evening. In response, an organized line segment will continue to move eastward across western Nebraska, western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, where scattered severe wind gusts are expected. Wind gusts above 70 knots will be possible along the more organized parts of the line. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening. ...Northern High Plains... Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over eastern Idaho, with divergent mid-level from the south and south-southeast across much of the northern High Plains. An axis moderate instability is analyzed from central North Dakota into northeastern Montana, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis in northeastern Montana. Additional storms have developed further south near the South Dakota-Wyoming state line. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Glasgow, Montana has easterly flow at the surface, with a sharply veering wind profile in the low-levels. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near 40 knots. This environment, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates should continue to support a severe threat for several more hours. A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will exist with the stronger storms. ..Broyles.. 09/18/2024 Read more