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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Ohio Valley and Mid-South vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MS Valley will become absorbed within a larger-scale trough shifting east across the Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper level southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley/Mid-South vicinity through much of the period. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across the Ohio and the Mid/Lower MS Valley area. A seasonally moist airmass characterized by 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the front. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely from MO through the Ohio Valley early in the period, resulting in forecast uncertainty. Nevertheless, enhanced midlevel flow overspreading a moist airmass ahead of a cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms where greater destabilization occurs. Locally damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most likely concerns with the strongest convection Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Ohio Valley and Mid-South vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MS Valley will become absorbed within a larger-scale trough shifting east across the Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper level southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley/Mid-South vicinity through much of the period. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across the Ohio and the Mid/Lower MS Valley area. A seasonally moist airmass characterized by 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the front. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely from MO through the Ohio Valley early in the period, resulting in forecast uncertainty. Nevertheless, enhanced midlevel flow overspreading a moist airmass ahead of a cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms where greater destabilization occurs. Locally damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most likely concerns with the strongest convection Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Ohio Valley and Mid-South vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MS Valley will become absorbed within a larger-scale trough shifting east across the Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper level southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley/Mid-South vicinity through much of the period. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across the Ohio and the Mid/Lower MS Valley area. A seasonally moist airmass characterized by 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the front. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are likely from MO through the Ohio Valley early in the period, resulting in forecast uncertainty. Nevertheless, enhanced midlevel flow overspreading a moist airmass ahead of a cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms where greater destabilization occurs. Locally damaging gusts and hail appear to be the most likely concerns with the strongest convection Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas to central/southern Missouri. ...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended somewhat southward with severe potential on Sunday, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been adjusted to reflect latest model trends. An upper shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies Sunday morning will eject east to the mid-MS Valley by Monday morning. This will bring a belt of 40-50 kt mid/upper southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast from near Lake Michigan to northwest Texas at midday to the Ohio Valley and central Texas by 12z Monday. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F forecast. Some uncertainty remains in where the corridor of greater strong/severe storm potential will develop, mainly driven by ongoing convection across parts of the region Sunday morning. Nevertheless, where pockets of greater heating occur, favorable vertical shear and increasing forcing from both the surface front and the ejecting midlevel wave, will support organized storm development. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm clusters and line segments. However, vertical shear may be suitable for a few supercells, especially across west Texas. Isolated large hail will be possible with any more discrete cells that develop and can be maintained ahead of the front. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas to central/southern Missouri. ...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended somewhat southward with severe potential on Sunday, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been adjusted to reflect latest model trends. An upper shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies Sunday morning will eject east to the mid-MS Valley by Monday morning. This will bring a belt of 40-50 kt mid/upper southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast from near Lake Michigan to northwest Texas at midday to the Ohio Valley and central Texas by 12z Monday. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F forecast. Some uncertainty remains in where the corridor of greater strong/severe storm potential will develop, mainly driven by ongoing convection across parts of the region Sunday morning. Nevertheless, where pockets of greater heating occur, favorable vertical shear and increasing forcing from both the surface front and the ejecting midlevel wave, will support organized storm development. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm clusters and line segments. However, vertical shear may be suitable for a few supercells, especially across west Texas. Isolated large hail will be possible with any more discrete cells that develop and can be maintained ahead of the front. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas to central/southern Missouri. ...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended somewhat southward with severe potential on Sunday, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been adjusted to reflect latest model trends. An upper shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies Sunday morning will eject east to the mid-MS Valley by Monday morning. This will bring a belt of 40-50 kt mid/upper southwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast from near Lake Michigan to northwest Texas at midday to the Ohio Valley and central Texas by 12z Monday. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F forecast. Some uncertainty remains in where the corridor of greater strong/severe storm potential will develop, mainly driven by ongoing convection across parts of the region Sunday morning. Nevertheless, where pockets of greater heating occur, favorable vertical shear and increasing forcing from both the surface front and the ejecting midlevel wave, will support organized storm development. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with thunderstorm clusters and line segments. However, vertical shear may be suitable for a few supercells, especially across west Texas. Isolated large hail will be possible with any more discrete cells that develop and can be maintained ahead of the front. ..Leitman.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible from the mid Missouri Valley to the Upper Midwest, and also from western Pennsylvania into northern/central Virginia. ...Southern High Plains... Notable upper trough has advanced into the lower CO River Valley early this morning. Strong 500mb speed max will soon round the base of the trough and eject across southern AZ into southern NM by late afternoon. This feature will greatly influence convective development/intensity across the southern High Plains by peak heating. Northern-stream short-wave trough will shift east today which will allow a sharp surface cold front to surge south across the High Plains into eastern CO by early afternoon, likely arcing across the northern TX Panhandle into northeast NM by 22/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected across southern NM with more modest warming forecast within southeasterly upslope flow from the TX/NM border into the Sangre de Cristo range, just southwest of the cold front. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached fairly early, aided in part by frontal/orographic influences. Scattered convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave, and this activity will be strongly sheared as the speed max approaches. Supercells are expected to evolve within this environment as 0-6km shear will be on the order of 50kt, along with veering winds with height. Large hail should develop with this activity along with some risk for a few tornadoes. ...Upper Midwest to Mid MO Valley... Northern-stream short-wave trough is progressing across SK/eastern MT into the northern Plains, in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to suppress the height field immediately downstream across eastern ND into northern MN, though the strongest falls will remain north of the international border. Even so, notable surface front will advance into MN-western IA-southern NE by 18z, then steadily surge east into the early evening hours. This boundary will serve as the focus for potential convective development during the late afternoon, though surface heating is not expected to be particularly strong ahead of the wind shift. With the strongest forcing expected to spread across northwest ON, convection may be more isolated along the front trailing across the Upper Midwest. Even so, some hail/wind threat will exist with this activity which should peak in intensity during the early evening. ...Western PA into western VA... Weak short-wave trough will dig southeast across the upper OH Valley later this afternoon with modest mid-level northwesterly flow expected to extend across western PA/VA. This feature will encourage scattered convection later this afternoon along a frontal zone that will be draped across the Delmarva-western PA into western NY. Convection that evolves near this wind shift will move southeast with an attendant risk for gusty winds and some hail. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible from the mid Missouri Valley to the Upper Midwest, and also from western Pennsylvania into northern/central Virginia. ...Southern High Plains... Notable upper trough has advanced into the lower CO River Valley early this morning. Strong 500mb speed max will soon round the base of the trough and eject across southern AZ into southern NM by late afternoon. This feature will greatly influence convective development/intensity across the southern High Plains by peak heating. Northern-stream short-wave trough will shift east today which will allow a sharp surface cold front to surge south across the High Plains into eastern CO by early afternoon, likely arcing across the northern TX Panhandle into northeast NM by 22/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected across southern NM with more modest warming forecast within southeasterly upslope flow from the TX/NM border into the Sangre de Cristo range, just southwest of the cold front. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached fairly early, aided in part by frontal/orographic influences. Scattered convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave, and this activity will be strongly sheared as the speed max approaches. Supercells are expected to evolve within this environment as 0-6km shear will be on the order of 50kt, along with veering winds with height. Large hail should develop with this activity along with some risk for a few tornadoes. ...Upper Midwest to Mid MO Valley... Northern-stream short-wave trough is progressing across SK/eastern MT into the northern Plains, in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to suppress the height field immediately downstream across eastern ND into northern MN, though the strongest falls will remain north of the international border. Even so, notable surface front will advance into MN-western IA-southern NE by 18z, then steadily surge east into the early evening hours. This boundary will serve as the focus for potential convective development during the late afternoon, though surface heating is not expected to be particularly strong ahead of the wind shift. With the strongest forcing expected to spread across northwest ON, convection may be more isolated along the front trailing across the Upper Midwest. Even so, some hail/wind threat will exist with this activity which should peak in intensity during the early evening. ...Western PA into western VA... Weak short-wave trough will dig southeast across the upper OH Valley later this afternoon with modest mid-level northwesterly flow expected to extend across western PA/VA. This feature will encourage scattered convection later this afternoon along a frontal zone that will be draped across the Delmarva-western PA into western NY. Convection that evolves near this wind shift will move southeast with an attendant risk for gusty winds and some hail. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible from the mid Missouri Valley to the Upper Midwest, and also from western Pennsylvania into northern/central Virginia. ...Southern High Plains... Notable upper trough has advanced into the lower CO River Valley early this morning. Strong 500mb speed max will soon round the base of the trough and eject across southern AZ into southern NM by late afternoon. This feature will greatly influence convective development/intensity across the southern High Plains by peak heating. Northern-stream short-wave trough will shift east today which will allow a sharp surface cold front to surge south across the High Plains into eastern CO by early afternoon, likely arcing across the northern TX Panhandle into northeast NM by 22/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected across southern NM with more modest warming forecast within southeasterly upslope flow from the TX/NM border into the Sangre de Cristo range, just southwest of the cold front. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached fairly early, aided in part by frontal/orographic influences. Scattered convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave, and this activity will be strongly sheared as the speed max approaches. Supercells are expected to evolve within this environment as 0-6km shear will be on the order of 50kt, along with veering winds with height. Large hail should develop with this activity along with some risk for a few tornadoes. ...Upper Midwest to Mid MO Valley... Northern-stream short-wave trough is progressing across SK/eastern MT into the northern Plains, in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to suppress the height field immediately downstream across eastern ND into northern MN, though the strongest falls will remain north of the international border. Even so, notable surface front will advance into MN-western IA-southern NE by 18z, then steadily surge east into the early evening hours. This boundary will serve as the focus for potential convective development during the late afternoon, though surface heating is not expected to be particularly strong ahead of the wind shift. With the strongest forcing expected to spread across northwest ON, convection may be more isolated along the front trailing across the Upper Midwest. Even so, some hail/wind threat will exist with this activity which should peak in intensity during the early evening. ...Western PA into western VA... Weak short-wave trough will dig southeast across the upper OH Valley later this afternoon with modest mid-level northwesterly flow expected to extend across western PA/VA. This feature will encourage scattered convection later this afternoon along a frontal zone that will be draped across the Delmarva-western PA into western NY. Convection that evolves near this wind shift will move southeast with an attendant risk for gusty winds and some hail. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/21/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few
days while it slowly moves generally north to northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the central Plains region and the northern High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a stubborn upper anticyclone positioned over TX. There is some indication a weak disturbance is flattening the height field a bit over KS, per an elongated cluster of robust convection that extends from west of CNK-SLN-west of ICT. 00z sounding from TOP exhibits seasonally low PW value (1.12 in), but ample 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts (40kt). Lower-tropospheric RH is fairly low which may be contributing to strong wind gusts that have been reported with this activity. Until the boundary layer cools later this evening there may be a propensity for locally severe winds with the broken squall line. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly strong, some strengthening in the LLJ is expected over the next few hours across eastern KS and this may allow convection to maintain some intensity through the mid-evening hours. A few strong gusts may also be noted with convection as it spreads east-southeast across northeast MT over the next few hours. 00z sounding from GGW is strongly sheared and lapse rates are steep. While the most robust updrafts are lagging the main wind shift, left exit region of 70kt 500mb jet will translate across this region. Large-scale should contribute to some longevity with this activity as it propagates toward northwest ND. ..Darrow.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the central Plains region and the northern High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a stubborn upper anticyclone positioned over TX. There is some indication a weak disturbance is flattening the height field a bit over KS, per an elongated cluster of robust convection that extends from west of CNK-SLN-west of ICT. 00z sounding from TOP exhibits seasonally low PW value (1.12 in), but ample 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts (40kt). Lower-tropospheric RH is fairly low which may be contributing to strong wind gusts that have been reported with this activity. Until the boundary layer cools later this evening there may be a propensity for locally severe winds with the broken squall line. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly strong, some strengthening in the LLJ is expected over the next few hours across eastern KS and this may allow convection to maintain some intensity through the mid-evening hours. A few strong gusts may also be noted with convection as it spreads east-southeast across northeast MT over the next few hours. 00z sounding from GGW is strongly sheared and lapse rates are steep. While the most robust updrafts are lagging the main wind shift, left exit region of 70kt 500mb jet will translate across this region. Large-scale should contribute to some longevity with this activity as it propagates toward northwest ND. ..Darrow.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the central Plains region and the northern High Plains. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a stubborn upper anticyclone positioned over TX. There is some indication a weak disturbance is flattening the height field a bit over KS, per an elongated cluster of robust convection that extends from west of CNK-SLN-west of ICT. 00z sounding from TOP exhibits seasonally low PW value (1.12 in), but ample 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts (40kt). Lower-tropospheric RH is fairly low which may be contributing to strong wind gusts that have been reported with this activity. Until the boundary layer cools later this evening there may be a propensity for locally severe winds with the broken squall line. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly strong, some strengthening in the LLJ is expected over the next few hours across eastern KS and this may allow convection to maintain some intensity through the mid-evening hours. A few strong gusts may also be noted with convection as it spreads east-southeast across northeast MT over the next few hours. 00z sounding from GGW is strongly sheared and lapse rates are steep. While the most robust updrafts are lagging the main wind shift, left exit region of 70kt 500mb jet will translate across this region. Large-scale should contribute to some longevity with this activity as it propagates toward northwest ND. ..Darrow.. 09/21/2024 Read more

MD 2093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Areas affected...from south-central into northeast Kansas...and small parts of northwest Missouri and far southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202220Z - 210045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms over south-central Kansas may persist into the evening in some form and affects locations such as Wichita, Topeka and eventually Kansas City. Strong wind gusts appear to be the primary concern. DISCUSSION...High-based storms have moved from the Panhandles into south-central KS, with some strengthening noted as better moisture is encountered. These storms are on the nose of a hot/low-level lapse rates plume, and close to a warm front draped northwest to southeast across KS. Visible imagery shows other areas of towering CU just east of the ongoing cluster as well, near the KS/OK border, with additional CU fields into north-central KS in the warm advection zone. As the low-level jet increases this evening, the warm front is forecast to shift northward across KS and western MO. This will result in destabilization across areas that are currently stable, and, provide continued support for ascent via warm advection and with outflow boundary interactions. Given the size of the ongoing area of convection, trends will need to be monitored for further strengthening or expansion of wind threat through the evening. ..Jewell/Hart.. 09/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38839829 39429704 39619638 39509575 39369541 39149525 38959518 38519507 38139522 37699601 37239723 37229814 37339869 38009887 38579869 38839829 Read more

913
ABPZ20 KNHC 202330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few
days while it slowly moves generally north to northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 2093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Areas affected...from south-central into northeast Kansas...and small parts of northwest Missouri and far southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202220Z - 210045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms over south-central Kansas may persist into the evening in some form and affects locations such as Wichita, Topeka and eventually Kansas City. Strong wind gusts appear to be the primary concern. DISCUSSION...High-based storms have moved from the Panhandles into south-central KS, with some strengthening noted as better moisture is encountered. These storms are on the nose of a hot/low-level lapse rates plume, and close to a warm front draped northwest to southeast across KS. Visible imagery shows other areas of towering CU just east of the ongoing cluster as well, near the KS/OK border, with additional CU fields into north-central KS in the warm advection zone. As the low-level jet increases this evening, the warm front is forecast to shift northward across KS and western MO. This will result in destabilization across areas that are currently stable, and, provide continued support for ascent via warm advection and with outflow boundary interactions. Given the size of the ongoing area of convection, trends will need to be monitored for further strengthening or expansion of wind threat through the evening. ..Jewell/Hart.. 09/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38839829 39429704 39619638 39509575 39369541 39149525 38959518 38519507 38139522 37699601 37239723 37229814 37339869 38009887 38579869 38839829 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 20 22:31:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2091 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...TEXAS...COLORADO AND KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Oklahoma...Texas...Colorado and Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202025Z - 202230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger storms. DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, regional radar imagery showed high-based showers and thunderstorms ongoing over parts of southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Likely associated with ascent from a weak shortwave trough and front, these storms have persisted in a drier and weakly buoyant air mass through the early afternoon. However, convection should gradually expand northeastward toward a more moist and buoyant air mass (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) through the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. Continued heating and weak ascent will also support additional destabilization and storm development. Area VADs are supportive of some storm organization with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. A few stronger/more persistent mutlicells or even marginal supercell structures are possible. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat given fairly steep low-level lapse rates and recent reported gusts to 44 kt at KHQG. Increasing buoyancy with eastward extent, and some potential for supercell structures may also support a risk for marginally severe hail with the deeper storms. While storm coverage has so far remained isolated, additional storm development is expected through the afternoon/evening. Still, the limited overlap with buoyancy/deep-layer shear and lack of broader forcing for ascent should keep storm organization and coverage fairly limited. A WW appears unlikely at this time. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 09/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37080254 37130256 37960175 38520036 39209777 38889640 38259602 37309664 36619858 36300178 36450206 37080254 Read more

MD 2092 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2092 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern Montana and North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202042Z - 202215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts are possible with convection near an upper low this afternoon/evening. Storm coverage and the lack of broader organization should keep the threat limited. DISCUSSION...As of 2040 UTC, regional observations showed low-topped showers and thunderstorms ongoing beneath an upper low over parts of northern MT. Cold temperatures aloft (H5 temps ~ -20C) with the upper low are supporting steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Despite poor surface moisture, (dewpoints in the 30s and 40s F) weak buoyancy (~500 J/Kg MUCAPE) should be sufficient to support isolated convection this afternoon and into the early evening hours. The steep lapse rates, and momentum transfer from strong flow aloft will support a risk for strong to severe damaging wind gusts with any storms able to persist. Storm coverage may gradually expand eastward with the upper low as it spreads into northwestern ND. Moisture there is slightly deeper, but buoyancy remains weak. A few strong to severe gusts are possible through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early part of this evening. Given the lack of deeper surface moisture and instability, a WW appears unlikely. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 09/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48611213 49141268 49341059 49200676 49140335 48760310 48030422 47780567 47750777 48131048 48611213 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... By late this weekend through early next week, mid to upper-level troughing is generally expected from the central to eastern CONUS, while ridging impacts the Southwest and Great Basin. This pattern will promote cooler air masses and precipitation chances from the Plains into the Midwest, with warmer and drier conditions west of the Rockies. The latter will likely lead to more receptive fuels developing across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. However, a lack of stronger flow aloft and significant low pressure areas developing will keep the overall fire weather wind threat very low across much of these regions. By mid to late next week, north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave troughs traversing the western Canadian provinces will result in increasing southwesterly flow through the troposphere over the Pacific Northwest. Confidence in at least elevated fire weather conditions impacting any specific region, however, appears far too low to introduce 40 percent probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more