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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the central and southern California coastline and adjacent interior areas. No severe threat is expected. ...Discussion... Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper-level low will continue to support some instability across California. The best instability and thunderstorm potential will be along the coast in central and Southern California where relatively warm ocean waters and greater moisture will lead to somewhat greater instability than farther inland. However, the weak instability will limit any severe weather potential. A persistent low-level jet (~30 knots) will be present across southeast Texas across much of the Gulf Coast states on Sunday and Sunday night with weak isentropic ascent through the period. This will likely result in showers and thunderstorms for much of the period. Despite strong shear (45 to 55 knots), storm organization is expected to be somewhat lacking due to the relatively weak instability. The best chance for an isolated large hail report will be across portions of East Texas where ~500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. However, even in this area, large hail potential remains too low to introduce a Marginal risk. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the central and southern California coastline and adjacent interior areas. No severe threat is expected. ...Discussion... Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper-level low will continue to support some instability across California. The best instability and thunderstorm potential will be along the coast in central and Southern California where relatively warm ocean waters and greater moisture will lead to somewhat greater instability than farther inland. However, the weak instability will limit any severe weather potential. A persistent low-level jet (~30 knots) will be present across southeast Texas across much of the Gulf Coast states on Sunday and Sunday night with weak isentropic ascent through the period. This will likely result in showers and thunderstorms for much of the period. Despite strong shear (45 to 55 knots), storm organization is expected to be somewhat lacking due to the relatively weak instability. The best chance for an isolated large hail report will be across portions of East Texas where ~500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. However, even in this area, large hail potential remains too low to introduce a Marginal risk. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the central and southern California coastline and adjacent interior areas. No severe threat is expected. ...Discussion... Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper-level low will continue to support some instability across California. The best instability and thunderstorm potential will be along the coast in central and Southern California where relatively warm ocean waters and greater moisture will lead to somewhat greater instability than farther inland. However, the weak instability will limit any severe weather potential. A persistent low-level jet (~30 knots) will be present across southeast Texas across much of the Gulf Coast states on Sunday and Sunday night with weak isentropic ascent through the period. This will likely result in showers and thunderstorms for much of the period. Despite strong shear (45 to 55 knots), storm organization is expected to be somewhat lacking due to the relatively weak instability. The best chance for an isolated large hail report will be across portions of East Texas where ~500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. However, even in this area, large hail potential remains too low to introduce a Marginal risk. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the central and southern California coastline and adjacent interior areas. No severe threat is expected. ...Discussion... Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper-level low will continue to support some instability across California. The best instability and thunderstorm potential will be along the coast in central and Southern California where relatively warm ocean waters and greater moisture will lead to somewhat greater instability than farther inland. However, the weak instability will limit any severe weather potential. A persistent low-level jet (~30 knots) will be present across southeast Texas across much of the Gulf Coast states on Sunday and Sunday night with weak isentropic ascent through the period. This will likely result in showers and thunderstorms for much of the period. Despite strong shear (45 to 55 knots), storm organization is expected to be somewhat lacking due to the relatively weak instability. The best chance for an isolated large hail report will be across portions of East Texas where ~500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. However, even in this area, large hail potential remains too low to introduce a Marginal risk. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the central and southern California coastline and adjacent interior areas. No severe threat is expected. ...Discussion... Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper-level low will continue to support some instability across California. The best instability and thunderstorm potential will be along the coast in central and Southern California where relatively warm ocean waters and greater moisture will lead to somewhat greater instability than farther inland. However, the weak instability will limit any severe weather potential. A persistent low-level jet (~30 knots) will be present across southeast Texas across much of the Gulf Coast states on Sunday and Sunday night with weak isentropic ascent through the period. This will likely result in showers and thunderstorms for much of the period. Despite strong shear (45 to 55 knots), storm organization is expected to be somewhat lacking due to the relatively weak instability. The best chance for an isolated large hail report will be across portions of East Texas where ~500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. However, even in this area, large hail potential remains too low to introduce a Marginal risk. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...01Z Update... Occasional lightning flashes have occurred this afternoon/evening across central California. A few lightning flashes could persist this evening as the upper low continues to shift south across the state. 00Z RAOBS from LCH and SHV indicate strong capping remains in place across east Texas into western Louisiana. Expect this capping inversion to remain through much of the overnight period. However, as low-level warm air advection and moistening continues, sufficient elevated instability for a few thunderstorms may develop close to 12Z from east/southeast Texas into northern Louisiana and perhaps southern Arkansas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...01Z Update... Occasional lightning flashes have occurred this afternoon/evening across central California. A few lightning flashes could persist this evening as the upper low continues to shift south across the state. 00Z RAOBS from LCH and SHV indicate strong capping remains in place across east Texas into western Louisiana. Expect this capping inversion to remain through much of the overnight period. However, as low-level warm air advection and moistening continues, sufficient elevated instability for a few thunderstorms may develop close to 12Z from east/southeast Texas into northern Louisiana and perhaps southern Arkansas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...01Z Update... Occasional lightning flashes have occurred this afternoon/evening across central California. A few lightning flashes could persist this evening as the upper low continues to shift south across the state. 00Z RAOBS from LCH and SHV indicate strong capping remains in place across east Texas into western Louisiana. Expect this capping inversion to remain through much of the overnight period. However, as low-level warm air advection and moistening continues, sufficient elevated instability for a few thunderstorms may develop close to 12Z from east/southeast Texas into northern Louisiana and perhaps southern Arkansas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley.. 01/26/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 25 22:12:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 25 22:12:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US D3/Monday through D6/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. A few lingering areas of locally Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across far southeastern Arizona on D3/Monday. Across the northern Plains, dry and breezy conditions will be possible D3/Monday and D4/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Late in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the central Valley of CA. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE~ 100-200 J/kg) may support a few lightning flashes with low-topped storms beneath the advancing cold core upper low. Additional, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorms are possible over parts of the ArkLaTex late this evening and overnight. Increasing warm/moist advection ahead of a subtle southern stream perturbation may lead to widely scattered elevated convection into early Sunday. While some lightning is possible, the relatively limited ascent and buoyancy suggest coverage should remain fairly low, peaking around 10-20%. Severe storms are not expected given the relatively weak buoyancy and poor overlap with strong vertical shear. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. Read more