Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are forecast over the continental U.S. on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level ridge is forecast over the southern Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves southward across the Desert Southwest. Mid-level flow will become more southwesterly over western parts of the southern Plains, as low-level moisture advection occurs across the southern part of Texas. Although showers could develop late in the period near the northern edge of the stronger flow over northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma, instability should be too weak to support thunderstorm development. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response, southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph, which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in the lower Mississippi Valley and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the start of the period along or near the front. Further west, a mid-level low will move southward along the coast of southern California. Isolated lightning strikes could occur near the low. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ..Moore.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as portions of the central and southern California coastline and adjacent interior areas. No severe threat is expected. ...Discussion... Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper-level low will continue to support some instability across California. The best instability and thunderstorm potential will be along the coast in central and Southern California where relatively warm ocean waters and greater moisture will lead to somewhat greater instability than farther inland. However, the weak instability will limit any severe weather potential. A persistent low-level jet (~30 knots) will be present across southeast Texas across much of the Gulf Coast states on Sunday and Sunday night with weak isentropic ascent through the period. This will likely result in showers and thunderstorms for much of the period. Despite strong shear (45 to 55 knots), storm organization is expected to be somewhat lacking due to the relatively weak instability. The best chance for an isolated large hail report will be across portions of East Texas where ~500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast with mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. However, even in this area, large hail potential remains too low to introduce a Marginal risk. ..Bentley/Moore.. 01/26/2025 Read more