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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. A few observational sites across Southern California continue to show Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. Pressure gradients have peaked for the day and are expected to decrease through the rest of the afternoon, resulting in lighter winds. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. A few observational sites across Southern California continue to show Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. Pressure gradients have peaked for the day and are expected to decrease through the rest of the afternoon, resulting in lighter winds. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. A few observational sites across Southern California continue to show Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. Pressure gradients have peaked for the day and are expected to decrease through the rest of the afternoon, resulting in lighter winds. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop in the afternoon and evening across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The potential for convective development is expected to continue into Thursday/Day 7 and Thursday night as the mid-level system approaches and moves into the southern Plains. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability, lift and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat in parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma, from Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, there is still substantial variance among solutions concerning this system, and confidence is low concerning magnitude and spacing. At this time, it appears the overall severe threat will remain marginal. On Friday/Day 8, the potential for convection is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Southeast, where little instability is forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop in the afternoon and evening across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The potential for convective development is expected to continue into Thursday/Day 7 and Thursday night as the mid-level system approaches and moves into the southern Plains. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability, lift and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat in parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma, from Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, there is still substantial variance among solutions concerning this system, and confidence is low concerning magnitude and spacing. At this time, it appears the overall severe threat will remain marginal. On Friday/Day 8, the potential for convection is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Southeast, where little instability is forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop in the afternoon and evening across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The potential for convective development is expected to continue into Thursday/Day 7 and Thursday night as the mid-level system approaches and moves into the southern Plains. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability, lift and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat in parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma, from Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, there is still substantial variance among solutions concerning this system, and confidence is low concerning magnitude and spacing. At this time, it appears the overall severe threat will remain marginal. On Friday/Day 8, the potential for convection is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Southeast, where little instability is forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop in the afternoon and evening across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The potential for convective development is expected to continue into Thursday/Day 7 and Thursday night as the mid-level system approaches and moves into the southern Plains. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability, lift and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat in parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma, from Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, there is still substantial variance among solutions concerning this system, and confidence is low concerning magnitude and spacing. At this time, it appears the overall severe threat will remain marginal. On Friday/Day 8, the potential for convection is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Southeast, where little instability is forecast. Read more