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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...TX Coast to Lower MS Valley... A surface cold front is forecast to be located near the Texas Coast Sunday morning. This front will shift east over the western Gulf vicinity, becoming oriented from southwest AL into the western-central Gulf by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, modest moisture will return northward across southern LA/MS/AL, with low 60s F dewpoints remaining confined to the immediate coast. Weak elevated instability will be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates, though surface-based instability will be mitigated by poor lapse rates/cool boundary-layer temperatures. Modest ascent associated with the front and a weak shortwave impulse aloft may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the TX coast to the Lower MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...TX Coast to Lower MS Valley... A surface cold front is forecast to be located near the Texas Coast Sunday morning. This front will shift east over the western Gulf vicinity, becoming oriented from southwest AL into the western-central Gulf by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, modest moisture will return northward across southern LA/MS/AL, with low 60s F dewpoints remaining confined to the immediate coast. Weak elevated instability will be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates, though surface-based instability will be mitigated by poor lapse rates/cool boundary-layer temperatures. Modest ascent associated with the front and a weak shortwave impulse aloft may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the TX coast to the Lower MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...TX Coast to Lower MS Valley... A surface cold front is forecast to be located near the Texas Coast Sunday morning. This front will shift east over the western Gulf vicinity, becoming oriented from southwest AL into the western-central Gulf by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, modest moisture will return northward across southern LA/MS/AL, with low 60s F dewpoints remaining confined to the immediate coast. Weak elevated instability will be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates, though surface-based instability will be mitigated by poor lapse rates/cool boundary-layer temperatures. Modest ascent associated with the front and a weak shortwave impulse aloft may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the TX coast to the Lower MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...TX Coast to Lower MS Valley... A surface cold front is forecast to be located near the Texas Coast Sunday morning. This front will shift east over the western Gulf vicinity, becoming oriented from southwest AL into the western-central Gulf by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, modest moisture will return northward across southern LA/MS/AL, with low 60s F dewpoints remaining confined to the immediate coast. Weak elevated instability will be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates, though surface-based instability will be mitigated by poor lapse rates/cool boundary-layer temperatures. Modest ascent associated with the front and a weak shortwave impulse aloft may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the TX coast to the Lower MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...TX Coast to Lower MS Valley... A surface cold front is forecast to be located near the Texas Coast Sunday morning. This front will shift east over the western Gulf vicinity, becoming oriented from southwest AL into the western-central Gulf by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, modest moisture will return northward across southern LA/MS/AL, with low 60s F dewpoints remaining confined to the immediate coast. Weak elevated instability will be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates, though surface-based instability will be mitigated by poor lapse rates/cool boundary-layer temperatures. Modest ascent associated with the front and a weak shortwave impulse aloft may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the TX coast to the Lower MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana, Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Saturday. Overnight, a south/southwest low-level jet will increase across parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity. Southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of the TX coast and Sabine Valley. Dewpoints near 60 F will remain confined to the immediate coastal vicinity with upper 40s to low 50s F dewpoints further north across east TX and central/northern LA. Increasing ascent in association with the aforementioned low-level jet may be sufficient for the development of isolated thunderstorm within weak elevated instability late Saturday night into early Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana, Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Saturday. Overnight, a south/southwest low-level jet will increase across parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity. Southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of the TX coast and Sabine Valley. Dewpoints near 60 F will remain confined to the immediate coastal vicinity with upper 40s to low 50s F dewpoints further north across east TX and central/northern LA. Increasing ascent in association with the aforementioned low-level jet may be sufficient for the development of isolated thunderstorm within weak elevated instability late Saturday night into early Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana, Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Saturday. Overnight, a south/southwest low-level jet will increase across parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity. Southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of the TX coast and Sabine Valley. Dewpoints near 60 F will remain confined to the immediate coastal vicinity with upper 40s to low 50s F dewpoints further north across east TX and central/northern LA. Increasing ascent in association with the aforementioned low-level jet may be sufficient for the development of isolated thunderstorm within weak elevated instability late Saturday night into early Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana, Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Saturday. Overnight, a south/southwest low-level jet will increase across parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity. Southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of the TX coast and Sabine Valley. Dewpoints near 60 F will remain confined to the immediate coastal vicinity with upper 40s to low 50s F dewpoints further north across east TX and central/northern LA. Increasing ascent in association with the aforementioned low-level jet may be sufficient for the development of isolated thunderstorm within weak elevated instability late Saturday night into early Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana, Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Saturday. Overnight, a south/southwest low-level jet will increase across parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity. Southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of the TX coast and Sabine Valley. Dewpoints near 60 F will remain confined to the immediate coastal vicinity with upper 40s to low 50s F dewpoints further north across east TX and central/northern LA. Increasing ascent in association with the aforementioned low-level jet may be sufficient for the development of isolated thunderstorm within weak elevated instability late Saturday night into early Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas, into northwest Louisiana, Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Saturday. Overnight, a south/southwest low-level jet will increase across parts of TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity. Southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf will transport moisture northward across portions of the TX coast and Sabine Valley. Dewpoints near 60 F will remain confined to the immediate coastal vicinity with upper 40s to low 50s F dewpoints further north across east TX and central/northern LA. Increasing ascent in association with the aforementioned low-level jet may be sufficient for the development of isolated thunderstorm within weak elevated instability late Saturday night into early Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. A few observational sites across Southern California continue to show Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. Pressure gradients have peaked for the day and are expected to decrease through the rest of the afternoon, resulting in lighter winds. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. A few observational sites across Southern California continue to show Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. Pressure gradients have peaked for the day and are expected to decrease through the rest of the afternoon, resulting in lighter winds. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. A few observational sites across Southern California continue to show Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions. Pressure gradients have peaked for the day and are expected to decrease through the rest of the afternoon, resulting in lighter winds. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more