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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains early this evening. Trailing influence of this feature contributed in part to convection along the trailing cold front across southeast ID/northern UT/southern WY. However, buoyancy is decreasing along this boundary, and further boundary-layer cooling will not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of attaining levels necessary for lightning. While scattered convection may be noted near the frontal zone as it surges into the central Rockies, the probability for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk overnight. ..Darrow.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains early this evening. Trailing influence of this feature contributed in part to convection along the trailing cold front across southeast ID/northern UT/southern WY. However, buoyancy is decreasing along this boundary, and further boundary-layer cooling will not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of attaining levels necessary for lightning. While scattered convection may be noted near the frontal zone as it surges into the central Rockies, the probability for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk overnight. ..Darrow.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains early this evening. Trailing influence of this feature contributed in part to convection along the trailing cold front across southeast ID/northern UT/southern WY. However, buoyancy is decreasing along this boundary, and further boundary-layer cooling will not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of attaining levels necessary for lightning. While scattered convection may be noted near the frontal zone as it surges into the central Rockies, the probability for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk overnight. ..Darrow.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains early this evening. Trailing influence of this feature contributed in part to convection along the trailing cold front across southeast ID/northern UT/southern WY. However, buoyancy is decreasing along this boundary, and further boundary-layer cooling will not prove beneficial for deep convection capable of attaining levels necessary for lightning. While scattered convection may be noted near the frontal zone as it surges into the central Rockies, the probability for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a categorical risk overnight. ..Darrow.. 02/08/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 7 23:17:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0074 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN ND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Areas affected...southern ND vicinity Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 072314Z - 080315Z SUMMARY...Narrow, transient bands of heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour should persist through the mid-evening hours across the southern North Dakota vicinity, potentially impacting areas along and south of the I-94 corridor. DISCUSSION...Per recent reports from WFO BIS/FGF and observational imagery, a thin band of heavy snow has been ongoing across a portion of southern ND, which the bulk of daytime guidance was underdone with. This snow band appears to be associated with an arc of maximized low-level isentropic ascent amid a rather cold thermodynamic profile supporting high snow-to-liquid ratios. Forcing for ascent above the dendritic growth zone will overspread some of this same corridor into mid evening as a mid-level shortwave impulse over southeast MT shifts east. This should maintain favorable large-scale lift and may aid in producing additional narrow bands towards the SD border area. This scenario is supported by a relative increase in heavy snow potential from 12Z HREF and 15Z SREF winter guidance. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 46480233 46740075 46799757 46439645 46109649 45809715 45720016 45520178 45590262 46480233 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 7 22:23:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs, widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period. Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist. ...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots. Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels, Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent. Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread. Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more