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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will be present east of the Divide. A surface high within the Plains will shift southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will push a cold front to near the Gulf Coast. With generally stable conditions expected, thunderstorm potential appears to be minimal. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will be present east of the Divide. A surface high within the Plains will shift southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will push a cold front to near the Gulf Coast. With generally stable conditions expected, thunderstorm potential appears to be minimal. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will be present east of the Divide. A surface high within the Plains will shift southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will push a cold front to near the Gulf Coast. With generally stable conditions expected, thunderstorm potential appears to be minimal. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will be present east of the Divide. A surface high within the Plains will shift southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will push a cold front to near the Gulf Coast. With generally stable conditions expected, thunderstorm potential appears to be minimal. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow aloft will be present east of the Divide. A surface high within the Plains will shift southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will push a cold front to near the Gulf Coast. With generally stable conditions expected, thunderstorm potential appears to be minimal. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by 09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the approaching short wave. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by 09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the approaching short wave. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by 09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the approaching short wave. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by 09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the approaching short wave. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... An area of modest mid-level height falls will spread across the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Ohio valley later today. This is in response to a fast-moving short-wave trough that will advance from the Upper MS Valley early in the period, into the Northeast by 09/12z. Strengthening 500mb speed max will translate across IL into PA, and this should aid large-scale ascent/mid-level moistening such that profiles begin to yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE as lapse rates steepen. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted between 1-2km AGL will become adequately buoyant for deep updrafts capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning. This elevated activity should remain scattered and weak, though strong low-level warm advection will be noted as a focused LLJ responds to the approaching short wave. ..Darrow/Jirak.. 02/08/2025 Read more

MD 0074 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN ND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Areas affected...southern ND vicinity Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 072314Z - 080315Z SUMMARY...Narrow, transient bands of heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour should persist through the mid-evening hours across the southern North Dakota vicinity, potentially impacting areas along and south of the I-94 corridor. DISCUSSION...Per recent reports from WFO BIS/FGF and observational imagery, a thin band of heavy snow has been ongoing across a portion of southern ND, which the bulk of daytime guidance was underdone with. This snow band appears to be associated with an arc of maximized low-level isentropic ascent amid a rather cold thermodynamic profile supporting high snow-to-liquid ratios. Forcing for ascent above the dendritic growth zone will overspread some of this same corridor into mid evening as a mid-level shortwave impulse over southeast MT shifts east. This should maintain favorable large-scale lift and may aid in producing additional narrow bands towards the SD border area. This scenario is supported by a relative increase in heavy snow potential from 12Z HREF and 15Z SREF winter guidance. ..Grams.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 46480233 46740075 46799757 46439645 46109649 45809715 45720016 45520178 45590262 46480233 Read more