SPC Feb 24, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 24, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

5 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more