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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Thursday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of northern California. ...Discussion... An amplifying mid-level trough will continue to sweep eastward across the eastern U.S. on Thursday. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the system may support sufficient instability to permit isolated convective development -- and possibly a few lightning flashes. Greater potential for convection -- and associated lightning chances -- will remain offshore over the Gulf Stream. Meanwhile, a mid-/upper-level low will move eastward into northern and central California overnight. Cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates may be sufficient to support sporadic lightning, from within the broader area of convective precipitation. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Thursday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of northern California. ...Discussion... An amplifying mid-level trough will continue to sweep eastward across the eastern U.S. on Thursday. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the system may support sufficient instability to permit isolated convective development -- and possibly a few lightning flashes. Greater potential for convection -- and associated lightning chances -- will remain offshore over the Gulf Stream. Meanwhile, a mid-/upper-level low will move eastward into northern and central California overnight. Cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates may be sufficient to support sporadic lightning, from within the broader area of convective precipitation. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

All outdoor burning has been banned in Charlotte County due to the current drought conditions and the elevated fire risk. The use and discharge of fireworks and sparklers was also prohibited. Other counties with burn bans included Collier, Sarasota, Glades, Hendry and Highlands. WGCU 90.1 FM Fort Myers (Fla.), Feb 25, 2025

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest region. ...Discussion... As a short-wave mid-level trough shifts eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area with time, associated cold mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft will spread across this region. This will result in weak instability -- sufficient for sustenance of showers and possibly occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The Elevated area has been expanded slightly for today to include portions of northeastern CO, most of the NE Panhandle, and more of central NE. Latest hi-res guidance, and consensus forecast soundings in and around the area of interest, indicate substantial mixing and downslope flow will occur later today as cloud cover diminishes/shifts eastward. Unidirectional westerly flow through the boundary layer near 30-55 mph later this afternoon suggests some locations may experience gusts up to or exceeding 50 mph, especially across the NE Panhandle. This downslope, and pre-frontal warming, should yield RH in the low teens. Recent fire activity has also been noted across NE, and a Critical area was considered, but overall fuel states preclude the need for an upgrade at this time. For additional details, please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The Elevated area has been expanded slightly for today to include portions of northeastern CO, most of the NE Panhandle, and more of central NE. Latest hi-res guidance, and consensus forecast soundings in and around the area of interest, indicate substantial mixing and downslope flow will occur later today as cloud cover diminishes/shifts eastward. Unidirectional westerly flow through the boundary layer near 30-55 mph later this afternoon suggests some locations may experience gusts up to or exceeding 50 mph, especially across the NE Panhandle. This downslope, and pre-frontal warming, should yield RH in the low teens. Recent fire activity has also been noted across NE, and a Critical area was considered, but overall fuel states preclude the need for an upgrade at this time. For additional details, please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The Elevated area has been expanded slightly for today to include portions of northeastern CO, most of the NE Panhandle, and more of central NE. Latest hi-res guidance, and consensus forecast soundings in and around the area of interest, indicate substantial mixing and downslope flow will occur later today as cloud cover diminishes/shifts eastward. Unidirectional westerly flow through the boundary layer near 30-55 mph later this afternoon suggests some locations may experience gusts up to or exceeding 50 mph, especially across the NE Panhandle. This downslope, and pre-frontal warming, should yield RH in the low teens. Recent fire activity has also been noted across NE, and a Critical area was considered, but overall fuel states preclude the need for an upgrade at this time. For additional details, please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The Elevated area has been expanded slightly for today to include portions of northeastern CO, most of the NE Panhandle, and more of central NE. Latest hi-res guidance, and consensus forecast soundings in and around the area of interest, indicate substantial mixing and downslope flow will occur later today as cloud cover diminishes/shifts eastward. Unidirectional westerly flow through the boundary layer near 30-55 mph later this afternoon suggests some locations may experience gusts up to or exceeding 50 mph, especially across the NE Panhandle. This downslope, and pre-frontal warming, should yield RH in the low teens. Recent fire activity has also been noted across NE, and a Critical area was considered, but overall fuel states preclude the need for an upgrade at this time. For additional details, please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The Elevated area has been expanded slightly for today to include portions of northeastern CO, most of the NE Panhandle, and more of central NE. Latest hi-res guidance, and consensus forecast soundings in and around the area of interest, indicate substantial mixing and downslope flow will occur later today as cloud cover diminishes/shifts eastward. Unidirectional westerly flow through the boundary layer near 30-55 mph later this afternoon suggests some locations may experience gusts up to or exceeding 50 mph, especially across the NE Panhandle. This downslope, and pre-frontal warming, should yield RH in the low teens. Recent fire activity has also been noted across NE, and a Critical area was considered, but overall fuel states preclude the need for an upgrade at this time. For additional details, please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 02/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska today, in addition to passage of a surface cold front. Surface winds are expected to increase, with potential for sustained winds around 20-25 mph. Some areas of north-central Nebraska/southern South Dakota may see overlap of stronger surface winds with relative humidity reductions to 20-25 percent. ERCs appear near normal for time of year, but there is concern over potential for fire spread within freeze cured fine fuels. Coordination with local partners on status of fuels has shown that lack of recent snow melt in combination with previously windy/dry conditions has led to increased fire activity. An Elevated delineation was added to support this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. ..Hart.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. ..Hart.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. ..Hart.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. ..Hart.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. ..Hart.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1014 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern/central Plains and western Colorado this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Northern and Central Plains... Clusters of high-based showers will affect much of the northern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Relatively dry low-level conditions will limit instability, with CAPE values near-zero. However, forecast soundings show cold temperature aloft, and sufficiently deep layers of steep lapse rates to maintain some risk of a few lightning flashes. It is unclear whether any areas will see sufficient coverage of thunderstorms to warrant 10% coverage, but will maintain TSTM areas where 12z model guidance is most confident. ..Hart.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the northern and central Plains today into the Mid Mississippi Valley overnight. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Colorado as well. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Early morning satellite imagery reveals an active northern stream, with one shortwave trough progressing through the Upper Great Lakes/OH Valley and another moving into the northern Rockies, downstream of a cyclone moving into southern British Columbia. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, moving off the Northeast coast this evening. The second wave is also forecast to continue eastward (perhaps slightly east-southeastward), moving through the northern Plains this evening and into the Upper Midwest by early tomorrow morning. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly behind this second wave, progressing southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and UT. At the surface, a low will move across the northern/central Plains just ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. Strong forcing for ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures will support the potential for a few thunderstorms near this surface low as it moves over the Dakotas this afternoon and evening. A similar scenario is anticipated farther south, where some isolated thunderstorms are possible this in the vicinity of a weak secondary surface low over central KS. Continued mid-level moistening within a steep lapse rate environment ahead of this wave will contribute to a persisting potential for isolated thunderstorms from the Mid MO Valley into southern WI/northern IL late tonight/early tomorrow. Some isolated thunderstorms could also occur across western CO where modest buoyancy could develop amid strong boundary-layer mixing and cooling mid-level temperatures. Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent within this environment could support a few thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/25/2025 Read more