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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0026 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0026 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0026 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE TLH TO 10 WSW VLD TO 35 W AYS TO 25 SSW VDI TO 35 NNE VDI TO 15 SSE AGS. WW 25 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 051500Z. ..JEWELL..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-047-067-079-089-121-123-051500- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON LAFAYETTE MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-039-043-049-051-065-101-103-109-127- 165-173-179-183-185-191-229-251-267-279-299-305-051500- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH CAMDEN CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EVANS GLYNN JENKINS LANIER LIBERTY Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE TLH TO 10 WSW VLD TO 35 W AYS TO 25 SSW VDI TO 35 NNE VDI TO 15 SSE AGS. WW 25 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 051500Z. ..JEWELL..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-047-067-079-089-121-123-051500- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON LAFAYETTE MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-039-043-049-051-065-101-103-109-127- 165-173-179-183-185-191-229-251-267-279-299-305-051500- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH CAMDEN CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EVANS GLYNN JENKINS LANIER LIBERTY Read more

MD 0145 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 24... FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...Florida Panhandle into parts of central to southern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 24... Valid 050735Z - 051100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 24 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic gusts near severe levels will remain possible along the cold front as it progresses into central and southern Georgia, and sweeps across the Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...A high-reflectivity line of thunderstorms persists along the cold front, with the bulk of the lightning activity extending from southwest GA southward. While surface-based CAPE is very low in most areas of GA, extreme shear coupled with brief heavy precipitation within the line may augment surface gusts. Meanwhile, slightly better moisture with low 60s F dewpoints are now into southern GA, with mid 60s along the northern Gulf Coast. Robust supercells are indicated well offshore, and should largely remain over the water for much of the night. Otherwise, the primary area of concern will be the frontal segment now over the FL Panhandle and extending into southwest GA. Here, pressure falls are currently maximized, and gusts over 44 kt have been measured recently. As such, the primary risk over the next few hours should remain largely within tornado watch 24, but portions of the squall line just north and moving into central GA will need to be monitored for watch potential given such strong shear and readily gusty wind environment. ..Jewell.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29768613 30378578 31618501 32298468 32928445 33458444 33658446 33868443 34278451 34498433 34468393 34148365 33408356 32818353 32108340 31088338 30448363 29948423 29518498 29498567 29638613 29768613 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights appears likely to linger across much of eastern Canada and the U.S. Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast into this weekend, as broad ridging builds in the subtropical and southern mid-latitudes. This latter development is forecast to occur downstream of a significant short wave trough emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with an embedded closed low forming across the Southwest into southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Medium-range guidance indicates that this perturbation will remain progressive, as a significant upstream short wave trough rapidly progresses across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, toward the southern California coast over the weekend. It still appears that the lead short wave will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. The ECENS/ECMWF-based output and GEFS/GFS-based output remain varied concerning how fast and the extent to which this occurs, with the latter guidance still indicating a bit more notable surface wave development along a frontal zone across the Gulf coast region. There does appear a consensus that Gulf boundary-layer modification may support a notable plume of returning low-level moisture ahead of the mid-level wave, across Gulf coastal areas into and along the frontal zone. Beneath initially steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, guidance indicates that this will support modest potential instability in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. This could lead to a corridor of vigorous thunderstorm development on Saturday, with stronger convection possibly becoming supportive of severe hail and perhaps locally strong surface gusts. It remains unclear whether this will setup near immediate upper Texas through north central Gulf coastal areas, or as far north as the Ark-La-Tex through central/northern Mississippi and Alabama. Stronger frontal wave development would probably support more substantive and further inland severe weather potential, which could spread across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Sunday. Due to the low predictability at this time, and the somewhat marginal nature of the severe threat, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Into early next week and beyond, as the lower heights shift out of the Northeast, a series of amplified, but progressive waves within the westerlies emanating from the Pacific may contribute to periodic, potentially significant cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies, However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited. Read more