Aggregator

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 25 SEVERE TSTM FL GA SC CW 050815Z - 051500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 25 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Florida Southern into Southeast Georgia Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning from 315 AM until 1000 AM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move eastward across the Watch area overnight into the morning. Damaging gusts ranging 55-70 mph are possible with the stronger inflections and bowing segments within the convective line. A brief tornado is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Vidalia GA to 55 miles south of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0146 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...much of central South and North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051222Z - 051445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The environment is beginning to rapidly change, and a ramp up in severe storm potential is likely. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes may develop through midday. DISCUSSION...A strongly forced line of convection continues to push east across the western Carolinas and southeast GA this morning, with strong gusts on the order of 40 kt common with this wind shift. Although bulk CAPE values are currently low, this will likely change over the next few hours, as low-level moisture streams in from the south. Local radar indeed shows showers now evident in a north-south streamer off the ocean. As the front interacts with the moistening air mass, conditions will continually become more favorable for rotation within the line, with brief tornadoes and damaging winds expected. Shear is extremely strong with 0-1 SRH over 500 m2/s2 over the entire region. Further, as pockets of heating develop, additional more discrete supercells may develop, most likely during the afternoon and perhaps to the east of this early day regime. ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 32927939 32628000 32578028 32578076 32648110 32868143 33028151 33388149 34528122 34998106 35258089 35708042 35927965 35917891 35767846 35297828 33917836 33837847 33757865 33437903 33137912 32927939 Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY TO 30 E VLD TO 20 NNE AYS TO 35 ESE VDI TO 40 NNW SAV TO 20 SW OGB. ..JEWELL..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-047-067-089-121-051440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON LAFAYETTE NASSAU SUWANNEE GAC025-029-039-049-051-101-103-127-179-183-191-229-267-299-305- 051440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM ECHOLS EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE TATTNALL WARE WAYNE SCC005-013-049-053-051440- Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more