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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be noted with lagging convection early this evening, severe threat appears too meager to maintain severe probabilities. Upstream, an intense 500mb jet max is digging southeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will translate along the international border into southern NM by the end of the period, increasing in strength to near 115kt by sunrise. Cool, steep lapse rates north of this jet favors weak convection that will spread across the southwestern U.S. into the southern Rockies late tonight. Gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, but storm-driven severe gusts are not anticipated. ..Darrow.. 03/14/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 13 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 13 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0168 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0420 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Areas affected...Northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132120Z - 132315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A robust supercell moving across northwest/north-central AL will pose a large hail and severe wind threat for the next 1-3 hours. While very large hail is possible, this threat is expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour or so, a robust supercell has emerged from a cluster of relatively transient convection associated with weak low-level warm advection and ascent in proximity to a mid-level vorticity maximum. This cell is expected to continue propagating southeastward over the next 1-3 hours along a diffuse baroclinic zone near 925 mb. As this cell migrates southeast, it will be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level winds, which will likely help maintain storm longevity/organization. As such, a downstream corridor of locally higher severe hail/wind threat is becoming apparent. While 1-inch hail stones have already been reported from this storm, MRMS MESH suggest hail stones upwards of 1.5 to 2.0 inches will be possible. Although the regional severe threat will likely be focused with this cell, additional cells may sufficiently intensify to pose a large hail threat. ..Moore/Guyer.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 34358814 34638805 34848778 34938738 34928705 34198563 33988553 33718562 33468614 33408663 33468708 33528746 33748779 34148805 34358814 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more