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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates a powerful and negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the southern High Plains. An intense mid-level jet (with winds of 100-115+ kt at 500 mb) will continue to round the base of the trough, and quickly eject northeastward across OK and eastern KS this afternoon. This mid-level jet will move over parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest this evening and tonight in tandem with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. Strong ascent aloft associated with both of these features will overspread portions of the central CONUS as a deep surface cyclone develops northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. In the low levels, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern/central Plains through the day, eventually arcing from the low southeastward into the Ozarks. A large area of significant severe potential remains evident across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South... Ample diurnal heating is expected through this afternoon ahead of the cyclone, with elevated convection already occurring across parts of eastern OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. More robust, surface-based thunderstorms will likely develop by early/mid afternoon (18-21z) along/east of the dryline from parts of eastern NE southward into eastern KS/western MO, as a southerly low-level jet attempts to bring shallow boundary-layer moisture northward into the mid MS Valley and vicinity. The northern portion of this convection will be oriented more orthogonal to the ejecting mid-level jet, and current expectations are for quick upscale growth into a fast northeastward-moving band, posing a risk for widespread severe/damaging winds as this activity moves into IA and towards the MO/IA/IL border region. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow and presence of steep lapse rates aloft, along with a well-mixed boundary layer, intense thunderstorm straight-line gusts peaking locally in the 80-100 mph range are possible with the stronger cores/inflections in the band as it matures and moves across parts of the mid MS Valley, and eventually into the southwestern Great Lakes this evening through tonight. Additional, potentially more discrete, severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon farther southeast along the wind shift into central/eastern MO, generally on the northern periphery of somewhat better low-level moisture from southeast MO southward into the Mid-South. Stronger high-level flow and ample deep-layer shear over these will likely promote at least semi-discrete supercells. Latest model guidance, including various convection-allowing HREF members, suggest scattered supercells developing late this afternoon and evening as far south as the MS/AR/TN border region. Have nudged severe probabilities and the corresponding SLGT/ENH/MDT westward a little in western/central MO to account for a slightly earlier initiation. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings strongly favor intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter), and potentially multiple strong to intense tornadoes this evening as effective SRH rapidly increases in tandem with a southerly low-level jet strengthening to 50-65+ kt. This substantial severe threat is expected to continue eastward overnight into parts of the lower OH Valley/Midwest, before convection eventually outpaces the low-level moisture return and weakens. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale forcing for ascent appears a bit more nebulous/weak farther south into the lower MS Valley. Still, the 12Z suite of guidance shows some potential for surface-based thunderstorms developing by late this afternoon across the ArkLaMiss region. While the stronger low/mid-level flow and forcing are expected to remain to the north of this region, greater low-level moisture and related instability will be present. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will support supercells, with associated threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some of tornadoes could be strong this evening with any sustained supercells, especially across central MS and vicinity. Have expanded the ENH to account for this potential, and consideration was given to expanding the MDT southward into central MS as well. But, there is still some uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates a powerful and negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the southern High Plains. An intense mid-level jet (with winds of 100-115+ kt at 500 mb) will continue to round the base of the trough, and quickly eject northeastward across OK and eastern KS this afternoon. This mid-level jet will move over parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest this evening and tonight in tandem with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. Strong ascent aloft associated with both of these features will overspread portions of the central CONUS as a deep surface cyclone develops northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. In the low levels, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern/central Plains through the day, eventually arcing from the low southeastward into the Ozarks. A large area of significant severe potential remains evident across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South... Ample diurnal heating is expected through this afternoon ahead of the cyclone, with elevated convection already occurring across parts of eastern OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. More robust, surface-based thunderstorms will likely develop by early/mid afternoon (18-21z) along/east of the dryline from parts of eastern NE southward into eastern KS/western MO, as a southerly low-level jet attempts to bring shallow boundary-layer moisture northward into the mid MS Valley and vicinity. The northern portion of this convection will be oriented more orthogonal to the ejecting mid-level jet, and current expectations are for quick upscale growth into a fast northeastward-moving band, posing a risk for widespread severe/damaging winds as this activity moves into IA and towards the MO/IA/IL border region. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow and presence of steep lapse rates aloft, along with a well-mixed boundary layer, intense thunderstorm straight-line gusts peaking locally in the 80-100 mph range are possible with the stronger cores/inflections in the band as it matures and moves across parts of the mid MS Valley, and eventually into the southwestern Great Lakes this evening through tonight. Additional, potentially more discrete, severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon farther southeast along the wind shift into central/eastern MO, generally on the northern periphery of somewhat better low-level moisture from southeast MO southward into the Mid-South. Stronger high-level flow and ample deep-layer shear over these will likely promote at least semi-discrete supercells. Latest model guidance, including various convection-allowing HREF members, suggest scattered supercells developing late this afternoon and evening as far south as the MS/AR/TN border region. Have nudged severe probabilities and the corresponding SLGT/ENH/MDT westward a little in western/central MO to account for a slightly earlier initiation. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings strongly favor intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter), and potentially multiple strong to intense tornadoes this evening as effective SRH rapidly increases in tandem with a southerly low-level jet strengthening to 50-65+ kt. This substantial severe threat is expected to continue eastward overnight into parts of the lower OH Valley/Midwest, before convection eventually outpaces the low-level moisture return and weakens. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale forcing for ascent appears a bit more nebulous/weak farther south into the lower MS Valley. Still, the 12Z suite of guidance shows some potential for surface-based thunderstorms developing by late this afternoon across the ArkLaMiss region. While the stronger low/mid-level flow and forcing are expected to remain to the north of this region, greater low-level moisture and related instability will be present. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will support supercells, with associated threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some of tornadoes could be strong this evening with any sustained supercells, especially across central MS and vicinity. Have expanded the ENH to account for this potential, and consideration was given to expanding the MDT southward into central MS as well. But, there is still some uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates a powerful and negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the southern High Plains. An intense mid-level jet (with winds of 100-115+ kt at 500 mb) will continue to round the base of the trough, and quickly eject northeastward across OK and eastern KS this afternoon. This mid-level jet will move over parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest this evening and tonight in tandem with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. Strong ascent aloft associated with both of these features will overspread portions of the central CONUS as a deep surface cyclone develops northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. In the low levels, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern/central Plains through the day, eventually arcing from the low southeastward into the Ozarks. A large area of significant severe potential remains evident across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South... Ample diurnal heating is expected through this afternoon ahead of the cyclone, with elevated convection already occurring across parts of eastern OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. More robust, surface-based thunderstorms will likely develop by early/mid afternoon (18-21z) along/east of the dryline from parts of eastern NE southward into eastern KS/western MO, as a southerly low-level jet attempts to bring shallow boundary-layer moisture northward into the mid MS Valley and vicinity. The northern portion of this convection will be oriented more orthogonal to the ejecting mid-level jet, and current expectations are for quick upscale growth into a fast northeastward-moving band, posing a risk for widespread severe/damaging winds as this activity moves into IA and towards the MO/IA/IL border region. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow and presence of steep lapse rates aloft, along with a well-mixed boundary layer, intense thunderstorm straight-line gusts peaking locally in the 80-100 mph range are possible with the stronger cores/inflections in the band as it matures and moves across parts of the mid MS Valley, and eventually into the southwestern Great Lakes this evening through tonight. Additional, potentially more discrete, severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon farther southeast along the wind shift into central/eastern MO, generally on the northern periphery of somewhat better low-level moisture from southeast MO southward into the Mid-South. Stronger high-level flow and ample deep-layer shear over these will likely promote at least semi-discrete supercells. Latest model guidance, including various convection-allowing HREF members, suggest scattered supercells developing late this afternoon and evening as far south as the MS/AR/TN border region. Have nudged severe probabilities and the corresponding SLGT/ENH/MDT westward a little in western/central MO to account for a slightly earlier initiation. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings strongly favor intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter), and potentially multiple strong to intense tornadoes this evening as effective SRH rapidly increases in tandem with a southerly low-level jet strengthening to 50-65+ kt. This substantial severe threat is expected to continue eastward overnight into parts of the lower OH Valley/Midwest, before convection eventually outpaces the low-level moisture return and weakens. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale forcing for ascent appears a bit more nebulous/weak farther south into the lower MS Valley. Still, the 12Z suite of guidance shows some potential for surface-based thunderstorms developing by late this afternoon across the ArkLaMiss region. While the stronger low/mid-level flow and forcing are expected to remain to the north of this region, greater low-level moisture and related instability will be present. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will support supercells, with associated threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some of tornadoes could be strong this evening with any sustained supercells, especially across central MS and vicinity. Have expanded the ENH to account for this potential, and consideration was given to expanding the MDT southward into central MS as well. But, there is still some uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates a powerful and negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the southern High Plains. An intense mid-level jet (with winds of 100-115+ kt at 500 mb) will continue to round the base of the trough, and quickly eject northeastward across OK and eastern KS this afternoon. This mid-level jet will move over parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest this evening and tonight in tandem with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. Strong ascent aloft associated with both of these features will overspread portions of the central CONUS as a deep surface cyclone develops northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. In the low levels, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern/central Plains through the day, eventually arcing from the low southeastward into the Ozarks. A large area of significant severe potential remains evident across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South... Ample diurnal heating is expected through this afternoon ahead of the cyclone, with elevated convection already occurring across parts of eastern OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. More robust, surface-based thunderstorms will likely develop by early/mid afternoon (18-21z) along/east of the dryline from parts of eastern NE southward into eastern KS/western MO, as a southerly low-level jet attempts to bring shallow boundary-layer moisture northward into the mid MS Valley and vicinity. The northern portion of this convection will be oriented more orthogonal to the ejecting mid-level jet, and current expectations are for quick upscale growth into a fast northeastward-moving band, posing a risk for widespread severe/damaging winds as this activity moves into IA and towards the MO/IA/IL border region. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow and presence of steep lapse rates aloft, along with a well-mixed boundary layer, intense thunderstorm straight-line gusts peaking locally in the 80-100 mph range are possible with the stronger cores/inflections in the band as it matures and moves across parts of the mid MS Valley, and eventually into the southwestern Great Lakes this evening through tonight. Additional, potentially more discrete, severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon farther southeast along the wind shift into central/eastern MO, generally on the northern periphery of somewhat better low-level moisture from southeast MO southward into the Mid-South. Stronger high-level flow and ample deep-layer shear over these will likely promote at least semi-discrete supercells. Latest model guidance, including various convection-allowing HREF members, suggest scattered supercells developing late this afternoon and evening as far south as the MS/AR/TN border region. Have nudged severe probabilities and the corresponding SLGT/ENH/MDT westward a little in western/central MO to account for a slightly earlier initiation. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings strongly favor intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter), and potentially multiple strong to intense tornadoes this evening as effective SRH rapidly increases in tandem with a southerly low-level jet strengthening to 50-65+ kt. This substantial severe threat is expected to continue eastward overnight into parts of the lower OH Valley/Midwest, before convection eventually outpaces the low-level moisture return and weakens. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale forcing for ascent appears a bit more nebulous/weak farther south into the lower MS Valley. Still, the 12Z suite of guidance shows some potential for surface-based thunderstorms developing by late this afternoon across the ArkLaMiss region. While the stronger low/mid-level flow and forcing are expected to remain to the north of this region, greater low-level moisture and related instability will be present. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will support supercells, with associated threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some of tornadoes could be strong this evening with any sustained supercells, especially across central MS and vicinity. Have expanded the ENH to account for this potential, and consideration was given to expanding the MDT southward into central MS as well. But, there is still some uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/14/2025 Read more