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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0242 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Iowa...northern Illinois...southern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191433Z - 191630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching the Greater Milwaukee and Chicago metropolitan areas may continue to pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail before weakening by midday into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Observational data indicate some recent intensification of thunderstorm activity in an arcing northeastward advancing band spreading into/across parts of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Based on forecast soundings, this convection is rooted within elevated moisture return and destabilization based near the 700 mb level, beneath an initial surge of cooling further aloft. Most unstable CAPE may be as high as 750+ J/kg along this corridor, with shear within the elevated convective layer strong, which may continue to support sub-severe to marginally severe hail in stronger cells another few hours. Into midday day, as activity spreads towards/into the Greater Milwaukee and Chicago vicinities, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this convection will probably tend to weaken as storm inflow trends less unstable. ..Kerr/Leitman.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42819067 43178997 42848824 41578784 40938846 41208911 41958954 42819067 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more