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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 19 16:40:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more