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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S. trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast. At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas. At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one or two of the stronger storms. Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S. trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast. At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas. At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one or two of the stronger storms. Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S. trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast. At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas. At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one or two of the stronger storms. Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S. trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast. At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas. At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one or two of the stronger storms. Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S. trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast. At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas. At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one or two of the stronger storms. Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S. trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast. At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas. At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one or two of the stronger storms. Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S. trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast. At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas. At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one or two of the stronger storms. Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more