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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/24/2025 Read more

More than 160 citations have been issued for water restriction violations in the past three months since the city entered a critical stage of drought as Corpus Christi’s water supply levels dropped. Fines have totaled tens of thousands of dollars. Caller Times (Corpus Christi, Texas), March 23, 2025

MD 0260 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 64... FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 64... Valid 241256Z - 241430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 64 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue through the morning across southeast Louisiana. DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to move east across southeast Louisiana this morning with a recent 68 knot wind gust at KBTR at 1228 UTC near the apex of this bow. The 12Z LIX RAOB showed around 1250 J/kg MLCAPE with a weak near-surface stable layer and 48 knots of 0-6 km shear. Extensive cloudcover should limit much heating this morning, but continued low-level moistening ahead of the squall line should maintain some surface based instability and a damaging wind threat through the morning. The northern extent of this severe weather threat is likely delineated by a southward moving line of storms/outflow boundary (currently near the MS/LA border). An additional watch is not currently anticipated east of watch 64 as any residual surface based instability will likely be limited to the immediate coastline by later this morning. ..Bentley/Halbert.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30979151 31119082 31058948 30908855 30818792 30568731 30248756 30158823 30108867 29608909 29138897 28988922 29009019 29129120 29339165 29739174 30979151 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE LFT TO 35 E LFT TO 40 ENE LFT TO 40 NE LFT. ..BENTLEY..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093- 095-103-105-109-117-121-125-241340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC045-047-109-241340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-241340- Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE LFT TO 35 E LFT TO 40 ENE LFT TO 40 NE LFT. ..BENTLEY..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093- 095-103-105-109-117-121-125-241340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC045-047-109-241340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-241340- Read more

WW 64 SEVERE TSTM LA MS CW 241125Z - 241600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 64 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 625 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Louisiana Far Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning from 625 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized bowing line of storms will continue steadily east-northeastward this morning with wind damage as the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles northwest of Houma LA to 35 miles east southeast of Slidell LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25045. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN TO 30 N ORF. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC053-055-095-139-177-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRITUCK DARE HYDE PASQUOTANK TYRRELL VAC710-810-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE NORFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231-ANZ632-633-634-656-658- 052340- Read more

MD 0259 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Areas affected...southern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241003Z - 241200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms capable of damaging wind gusts will move along the Gulf Coast this morning. DISCUSSION...Storms which moved across southeast Texas, and produced a 53 knot wind gust at 0815 UTC at KHOU, have now congealed into a bowing line of storms. Several taller cells are apparent within this line and some additional storms have started to develop ahead of it, indicating a mesoscale region of enhanced lift. This lift, combined with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE across southern Louisiana where 40 knots of deep-layer shear are present (per LCH VWP), should support some damaging wind threat over the next few hours as this bowing line of storms moves east. Current expectation is that this line of storms may produce sporadic damaging wind gusts, but should not be widespread enough to support a watch. However, this bowing segment was not forecast by CAM guidance including the 08Z HRRR and the mesoscale environment supports at least some potential for this bowing segment to continue and perhaps strengthen. Therefore, if this bow continues to strengthen, a severe thunderstorm watch is possible. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29599384 30019382 30439377 30769336 30999257 31009166 30949083 30729046 29959026 29109053 29009072 29039104 29339154 29519231 29679323 29679348 29599384 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more