Aggregator

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW HUM TO 35 WNW CBM TO 30 NW MSL. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC095-103-105-117-152240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC017-023-025-031-035-045-047-057-059-061-065-067-069-073-075- 081-087-091-095-099-101-103-105-109-117-129-141-147-159- 152240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICKASAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST HANCOCK HARRISON ITAWAMBA JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LEE LOWNDES MARION MONROE NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER PRENTISS SMITH TISHOMINGO Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-023-029-031-035-037-045-049-055-063-065-067-071- 075-083-089-093-101-105-111-115-121-123-129-135-137-141-145-147- 149-302140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE LOGAN MARION MISSISSIPPI NEWTON PERRY POINSETT POPE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL ILC003-005-027-047-051-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-121-127-135- 145-151-153-157-165-181-185-189-191-193-199-302140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 70 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE SPI TO 20 E LAF. ..THORNTON..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 70 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-025-029-033-035-045-049-079-101-159-173-302140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND SHELBY INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-035-045-055-057-059-063-065-067- 081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-135-139-145-153- 157-159-165-167-302140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CARROLL CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DELAWARE FOUNTAIN GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN Read more

WW 0071 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 71 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S DNV TO 10 NE LAF TO 30 SSE VPZ TO 45 SSE RAC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305 ..THORNTON..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103- 113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-302140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WABASH WELLS WHITE WHITLEY MIC021-023-027-149-302140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN BRANCH CASS Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/14/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-021-033-035-037-041-043-059-063-065-067-081-089-093-109- 131-141-143-147-149-167-189-191-193-195-142340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BUENA VISTA CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CHICKASAW CLAY CLAYTON DICKINSON EMMET FAYETTE FLOYD HANCOCK HOWARD IDA KOSSUTH MITCHELL O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH SIOUX WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WOODBURY WORTH MNC013-039-043-045-047-055-063-091-099-109-147-161-165-169- 142340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN HOUSTON JACKSON MARTIN MOWER Read more

MD 0301 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 70...71... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0301 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Illinois into central/northern Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan Concerning...Tornado Watch 70...71... Valid 301905Z - 302100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 70, 71 continues. SUMMARY...There is an increasing risk for severe wind gusts in central/northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan. DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms continues to move northeast in parts of eastern Illinois. Several measured and estimated severe gusts occurred in the Champaign, IL vicinity recently. KILX radar shows strong outbound winds within this line. With continued surface heating of mostly clear/partly cloudy skies in Indiana and forcing from the shortwave trough, the potential for severe wind gusts should continue through the afternoon. Low-level shear is not overly strong per downstream VAD data, but QLCS tornadoes remain possible. The greatest potential for a tornado (and large hail) would likely exist on the southern flank of the line where storms may remain more discrete. ..Wendt.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39098853 39998830 40708824 41268793 41628702 42008624 42138594 42098569 41668548 40968535 40408537 40138538 39098853 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0300 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northern Arkansas...southern Missouri...western Tennessee...western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301841Z - 302045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for storms in portions of the Mid-South, including the potential for discrete supercells. Tornadoes (some strong), very large hail, and severe gusts are all possible. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...With the cold front beginning to move southeastward in Missouri, storm development along it can be expected as it encounters greater low-level moisture. Some of the activity in southeastern Missouri may be discrete at least for some period of time. Of greater concern will be storms that develop in western/central Arkansas. There, the surge of the cold front through Oklahoma has allowed a slightly more favorable boundary/shear vector orientation. Recent short-term model guidance has continued to show a signal for storm development in these areas. These storms would have greater potential to be discrete and remain so for a longer duration. With the stronger low-level flow lifting north, the tornado threat may initially be lower. However, discrete storms that persist into the evening will have increasing tornado potential (including strong tornadoes) as the low-level jet increases in the Mid-South. The 18Z observed Little Rock, AR sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates, 45 kts of effective shear, and a remaining capping inversion. Aside from the tornado threat, very large hail and severe gusts would be possible. Though cumulus continues to steadily deepen in the region, it may take another hour or two for storms to initiate. Subtle mid-level ascent in Oklahoma will pivot into the region and should assist in this process. A tornado watch is likely later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 34959359 34959389 35309378 36449303 36759281 37059233 37119212 37298974 37148906 36998863 36478854 35908887 35219177 35079275 34959359 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more