Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more