Aggregator

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 65 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/26/25 ATTN...WFO...PQR...SEW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 65 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC003-005-009-027-043-047-051-053-067-071-270040- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLACKAMAS COLUMBIA HOOD RIVER LINN MARION MULTNOMAH POLK WASHINGTON YAMHILL WAC011-015-033-041-053-059-067-270040- WA . WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COWLITZ KING LEWIS PIERCE SKAMANIA THURSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CHA TO 35 WSW TYS TO 5 WNW TYS TO 30 E TYS. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-011-065-105-107-115-121-123-139-153-311040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT BRADLEY HAMILTON LOUDON MCMINN MARION MEIGS MONROE POLK SEQUATCHIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CHA TO 35 WSW TYS TO 5 WNW TYS TO 30 E TYS. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-011-065-105-107-115-121-123-139-153-311040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT BRADLEY HAMILTON LOUDON MCMINN MARION MEIGS MONROE POLK SEQUATCHIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CHA TO 35 WSW TYS TO 5 WNW TYS TO 30 E TYS. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-011-065-105-107-115-121-123-139-153-311040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT BRADLEY HAMILTON LOUDON MCMINN MARION MEIGS MONROE POLK SEQUATCHIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CHA TO 35 WSW TYS TO 5 WNW TYS TO 30 E TYS. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-011-065-105-107-115-121-123-139-153-311040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT BRADLEY HAMILTON LOUDON MCMINN MARION MEIGS MONROE POLK SEQUATCHIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CHA TO 35 WSW TYS TO 5 WNW TYS TO 30 E TYS. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-011-065-105-107-115-121-123-139-153-311040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT BRADLEY HAMILTON LOUDON MCMINN MARION MEIGS MONROE POLK SEQUATCHIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CHA TO 35 WSW TYS TO 5 WNW TYS TO 30 E TYS. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-011-065-105-107-115-121-123-139-153-311040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT BRADLEY HAMILTON LOUDON MCMINN MARION MEIGS MONROE POLK SEQUATCHIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 82 TORNADO TN 310540Z - 311200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 82 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Monday morning from 140 AM until 800 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will spread eastward through the early morning hours across eastern Tennessee. A couple of tornadoes and scattered damaging winds should be the main threats. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Knoxville TN to 10 miles west southwest of Chattanooga TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 77...WW 78...WW 79...WW 80...WW 81... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0083 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S LFK TO 10 NNE ESF TO 35 SE MLU TO 30 SW GLH. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC017-311040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC003-009-011-025-029-035-039-041-059-065-079-097-107-115-123- 311040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN LA SALLE MADISON RAPIDES ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WEST CARROLL MSC001-007-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-043-049-051- 053-055-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-091- 097-099-101-103-105-121-123-125-127-129-133-149-151-155-159-163- 311040- Read more

MD 0321 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 78...81...82... FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee...northeast Mississippi...northern and central Alabama...and northwest Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 78...81...82... Valid 310721Z - 310915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 78, 81, 82 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will continue eastward over the next few hours. Downstream watch issuance will likely be needed for parts of the region. DISCUSSION...The line of severe storms over Middle Tennessee is expected to move into Tornado Watch 82 by/near 08z, allowing Tornado Watch 78 to expire on time. Tracking ongoing convection over northeast MS/northwest AL, this activity also should be close to the edge of Tornado Watch 81 near its expiration time of 10z. A new watch will likely be needed to cover portions of northeast MS into northern AL/northwest GA as additional storm development across northern MS/AL is expected, and as ongoing storms shift east the remainder of the night. Sufficient instability and strong deep-layer flow will sustain strong to severe convection through the overnight hours. Special 06z RAOB from JAN indicates some mild inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and supercell wind profiles suggest some continued risk is possible into early morning. Tornado potential may be limited by stronger low-level inhibition and more modest 0-1 km shear. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours to replace portions of Tornado Watch 81, and to include points downstream across northern and central AL into northwest GA. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 36048534 36148448 35818396 35128401 34508448 33618560 33108652 32938733 33078818 33768846 34188863 34518867 34718863 35028838 36048534 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more