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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE FSM TO 20 SW UNO TO 20 N POF TO 35 E SLO. ..BROYLES..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-021-023-029-031-035-037-045-049-055-063-065-067-075-083- 093-105-111-115-121-123-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-310040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLAY CLEBURNE CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LOGAN MISSISSIPPI PERRY POINSETT POPE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL ILC003-055-059-065-069-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-193-199- 310040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN Read more

WW 0088 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PFN TO 10 W PFN TO 15 WSW MAI TO 5 N MAI TO 25 ENE DHN TO 35 SSE CSG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327 ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-073-077-129-311940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA GAC007-037-071-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-243-253-273-275-277- 287-321-311940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN COLQUITT DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY LEE MILLER MITCHELL RANDOLPH SEMINOLE TERRELL THOMAS TIFT TURNER WORTH Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW ABY TO 40 ESE CSG TO 20 SW MCN TO 25 N MCN TO 15 SW AHN TO 25 N AHN TO 45 NW AND TO 35 SW HSS. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-023-033-059-073-081-091-093-105-107-119-125-133-141- 147-153-163-167-169-175-181-189-193-195-209-211-219-221-225-235- 237-245-257-261-265-271-279-283-289-301-303-307-309-315-317-319- 311940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY BURKE CLARKE COLUMBIA CRISP DODGE DOOLY ELBERT EMANUEL FRANKLIN GLASCOCK GREENE HANCOCK HART HOUSTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES LAURENS LINCOLN MCDUFFIE MACON MADISON MONTGOMERY MORGAN OCONEE OGLETHORPE PEACH PULASKI PUTNAM RICHMOND STEPHENS SUMTER TALIAFERRO TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN TWIGGS WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER WHEELER WILCOX WILKES WILKINSON Read more

MD 0326 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87... FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Central/northern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87... Valid 311655Z - 311830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds and a brief QLCS tornado remain possible as an organized line continues east through parts of central/northern Georgia. DISCUSSION...The portion of the convective line moving through central/northern Georgia has shown greater acceleration over the past hour or so. KFFC VAD data showed low level winds increasing to 50-65 kts as the outflow/gust front passed the radar. With buoyancy increasing ahead of the line, severe/damaging wind gusts should become more probable into the afternoon. Furthermore, low-level shear vectors are somewhat favorably oriented with the line and a brief QLCS tornado remain a possibility. A few line-embedded circulations have been noted on KFFC velocity data over the last 30 minutes. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 33598494 34098471 34288365 34398315 33938243 33118247 31978308 31768332 31698376 31838475 32218507 32868507 33598494 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the central and southern Plains. The greater coverage of storms is expected across parts of central and eastern Kansas, but significant severe storms will be possible farther south into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible, including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the western/central CONUS on Tuesday, as a powerful jet (80-100 kt at 500 mb) begins to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains later in the period. In response to this trough and jet, a surface cyclone will intensify through the day across the central High Plains, before moving northeastward toward the lower MO Valley Tuesday night. Rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will stream rapidly northward through the day and evening in response to the deepening cyclone and a strong low-level jet. The magnitude and timing of richer moisture returns remain somewhat uncertain, and will be crucial for the potential of storm initiation along/east of the dryline through early evening. Initial high-based storms are expected to develop during the afternoon across parts of central NE, where low-level moisture will remain limited but stronger early-day ascent will spread across the region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest this far north, but increasing low-level and deep-layer flow/shear could support a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and hail as this convection spreads east-northeastward into the early evening. Farther south, the environment along/east of the dryline into parts of western/central KS/OK and northwest TX will become increasingly favorable for organized severe storms, as upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints (greater with south extent) spread northward and deep-layer flow fields become rather intense. However, lingering CINH will tend to inhibit initiation through much of the afternoon, and the late arrival of richer boundary-layer moisture results in uncertainty regarding potential for storm development through early evening. Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area. There is greater confidence in storm coverage during the evening into late Tuesday night across parts of eastern KS and western MO. A strong (60+ kt) low-level jet will become focused into this region, as the surface low begins to move east-northeastward across KS. Convection may remain slightly elevated across this area, but moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support a threat of large/very-large hail and severe gusts. Surface-based supercells could persist near the southern periphery of this cluster, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 supporting a tornado threat, including the conditional threat of a strong tornado. An Enhanced Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in storm coverage within an increasingly favorable environment. Overnight, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front into parts of OK/TX, within a very favorable conditional environment for organized storms. Given the timing and a tendency for deep-layer flow to become parallel to the front, questions remain regarding the mode of overnight storms and whether they will be surface-based, but some all-hazards severe threat could persist through the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the central and southern Plains. The greater coverage of storms is expected across parts of central and eastern Kansas, but significant severe storms will be possible farther south into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible, including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the western/central CONUS on Tuesday, as a powerful jet (80-100 kt at 500 mb) begins to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains later in the period. In response to this trough and jet, a surface cyclone will intensify through the day across the central High Plains, before moving northeastward toward the lower MO Valley Tuesday night. Rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will stream rapidly northward through the day and evening in response to the deepening cyclone and a strong low-level jet. The magnitude and timing of richer moisture returns remain somewhat uncertain, and will be crucial for the potential of storm initiation along/east of the dryline through early evening. Initial high-based storms are expected to develop during the afternoon across parts of central NE, where low-level moisture will remain limited but stronger early-day ascent will spread across the region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest this far north, but increasing low-level and deep-layer flow/shear could support a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and hail as this convection spreads east-northeastward into the early evening. Farther south, the environment along/east of the dryline into parts of western/central KS/OK and northwest TX will become increasingly favorable for organized severe storms, as upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints (greater with south extent) spread northward and deep-layer flow fields become rather intense. However, lingering CINH will tend to inhibit initiation through much of the afternoon, and the late arrival of richer boundary-layer moisture results in uncertainty regarding potential for storm development through early evening. Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area. There is greater confidence in storm coverage during the evening into late Tuesday night across parts of eastern KS and western MO. A strong (60+ kt) low-level jet will become focused into this region, as the surface low begins to move east-northeastward across KS. Convection may remain slightly elevated across this area, but moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support a threat of large/very-large hail and severe gusts. Surface-based supercells could persist near the southern periphery of this cluster, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 supporting a tornado threat, including the conditional threat of a strong tornado. An Enhanced Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in storm coverage within an increasingly favorable environment. Overnight, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front into parts of OK/TX, within a very favorable conditional environment for organized storms. Given the timing and a tendency for deep-layer flow to become parallel to the front, questions remain regarding the mode of overnight storms and whether they will be surface-based, but some all-hazards severe threat could persist through the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the central and southern Plains. The greater coverage of storms is expected across parts of central and eastern Kansas, but significant severe storms will be possible farther south into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible, including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the western/central CONUS on Tuesday, as a powerful jet (80-100 kt at 500 mb) begins to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains later in the period. In response to this trough and jet, a surface cyclone will intensify through the day across the central High Plains, before moving northeastward toward the lower MO Valley Tuesday night. Rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will stream rapidly northward through the day and evening in response to the deepening cyclone and a strong low-level jet. The magnitude and timing of richer moisture returns remain somewhat uncertain, and will be crucial for the potential of storm initiation along/east of the dryline through early evening. Initial high-based storms are expected to develop during the afternoon across parts of central NE, where low-level moisture will remain limited but stronger early-day ascent will spread across the region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest this far north, but increasing low-level and deep-layer flow/shear could support a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and hail as this convection spreads east-northeastward into the early evening. Farther south, the environment along/east of the dryline into parts of western/central KS/OK and northwest TX will become increasingly favorable for organized severe storms, as upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints (greater with south extent) spread northward and deep-layer flow fields become rather intense. However, lingering CINH will tend to inhibit initiation through much of the afternoon, and the late arrival of richer boundary-layer moisture results in uncertainty regarding potential for storm development through early evening. Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area. There is greater confidence in storm coverage during the evening into late Tuesday night across parts of eastern KS and western MO. A strong (60+ kt) low-level jet will become focused into this region, as the surface low begins to move east-northeastward across KS. Convection may remain slightly elevated across this area, but moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support a threat of large/very-large hail and severe gusts. Surface-based supercells could persist near the southern periphery of this cluster, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 supporting a tornado threat, including the conditional threat of a strong tornado. An Enhanced Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in storm coverage within an increasingly favorable environment. Overnight, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front into parts of OK/TX, within a very favorable conditional environment for organized storms. Given the timing and a tendency for deep-layer flow to become parallel to the front, questions remain regarding the mode of overnight storms and whether they will be surface-based, but some all-hazards severe threat could persist through the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more