Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ABY TO 35 E MCN TO 30 W AGS TO 45 NW AGS TO 20 WNW GSP TO 10 ENE AVL. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC033-073-081-091-107-125-163-167-175-181-189-209-235-245-271- 279-283-303-309-315-312040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURKE COLUMBIA CRISP DODGE EMANUEL GLASCOCK JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAURENS LINCOLN MCDUFFIE MONTGOMERY PULASKI RICHMOND TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WASHINGTON WHEELER WILCOX NCC025-045-071-109-119-149-161-179-312040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CABARRUS CLEVELAND GASTON LINCOLN MECKLENBURG POLK RUTHERFORD UNION Read more

WW 0088 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW AAF TO 30 W TLH TO 35 N TLH TO 10 SE ABY TO 40 SSW MCN. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-039-045-073-077-129-312040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA GAC071-131-275-277-287-321-312040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLQUITT GRADY THOMAS TIFT TURNER WORTH GMZ735-752-755-312040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. ANDREWS BAY WATERWAYS Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more