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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 6 23:50:02 UTC 2025.

125
ABPZ20 KNHC 062320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the central Pacific basin well east-southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii.

Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a few showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur while it moves generally westward around 10 to 15 mph over
the open waters of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 2046 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607... FOR EASTERN MD TO SOUTHEAST NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 2046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Areas affected...eastern MD to southeast NJ Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607... Valid 062134Z - 062230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607 continues. SUMMARY...Limited threat for strong gusts should diminish before 00Z near the southeast portion of remaining WW 607. DISCUSSION...Convection has largely congealed into a southwest/northeast-oriented broken band from the northern Chesapeake into central NJ. This alignment is closely paralleling the deep-layer shear vector and likely is a mitigating factor to more organized potential for strong gusts. Still, a ribbon of mid to upper 80s surface temperatures remains across a portion of eastern MD into southeast NJ. This could support a few sporadic strong gusts, mainly in the 40-60 mph range, for another hour or two before this warm pocket is overturned close to sunset. ..Grams.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39847438 39717415 39277448 38517514 38307599 38537631 38817648 38977644 39347557 39767477 39897448 39847438 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
000-VTZ000-CWZ000-062240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BWI TO 20 WNW ISP TO 25 N GON TO 20 SSW PSM TO 15 WSW AUG TO 25 E BGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046. ..GRAMS..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...LWX...GYX...CAR...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC015-062240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WINDHAM DEC001-003-062240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE MEC001-011-023-027-062240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN KENNEBEC SAGADAHOC Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
000-VTZ000-CWZ000-062240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BWI TO 20 WNW ISP TO 25 N GON TO 20 SSW PSM TO 15 WSW AUG TO 25 E BGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046. ..GRAMS..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...LWX...GYX...CAR...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC015-062240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WINDHAM DEC001-003-062240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE MEC001-011-023-027-062240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN KENNEBEC SAGADAHOC Read more

WW 607 SEVERE TSTM CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT CW 061710Z - 070000Z
PAZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CWZ000-070000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Delaware Massachusetts Northeast Maryland Western and Central Maine Southern New Hampshire New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southeast Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a boundary from central Maryland northeastward into parts of New York/Vermont. These storms will intensify through the afternoon, with locally severe storms expected. Damaging winds will be the main risk with the stronger cells, although a few could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Wilmington DE to 25 miles east of Bangor ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z The ridge across the West for the past week will slowly move east into the central US and be replaced by an amplified trough. This trough will bring cooler temperatures limiting the overlap of hot, dry, and windy conditions. An exception to the relief from the heat will be across southern California and Arizona. Additionally, winds may increase mid week across the Great Basin in response to a shortwave trough/jet max traversing the area, but cooler temperatures should help keep relative humidity above elevated/critical thresholds except on localized bases. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across much of the northern two-thirds of the West as the trough moves through the region. However, predictability of where and when any dry thunderstorm may develop is too low to warrant unconditional dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2045 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607... FOR CT/RI INTO PARTS OF MA...SOUTHERN/EASTERN NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL ME
Mesoscale Discussion 2045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Areas affected...CT/RI into parts of MA...southern/eastern NH...western/central ME Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607... Valid 061949Z - 062115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two will spread eastward into late afternoon. DISCUSSION...A supercell that earlier developed over southeast NY has evolved into a small bowing segment (still with supercell characteristics) across southwest MA, and has a history of producing wind damage, and also a 56 kt gust near Westfield, MA (KBAF). 2-hour pressure falls are relatively maximized near/east of this storm, and it will likely persist as it moves quickly eastward across a moderately buoyant and favorably sheared environment. Damaging winds will likely be the primary hazard, though a brief tornado or two will be possible, given the presence of modestly curved low-level hodographs (with effective SRH in excess of 150 m2/s2 per VWPs from KGYX and KBOX). Elsewhere from CT into southeast NH/southwest ME, storm coverage has substantially increased over the last hour, along/ahead of a eastward-moving cold front. Evolution into a larger-scale QLCS appears to be underway, with a damaging-wind threat expected to spread eastward into late afternoon. With favorable low-level and deep-layer shear in place, some tornado potential cannot be ruled out within any embedded supercells, as well as with any stronger discrete cells that can be maintained ahead of the primary convective line. Isolated hail potential will also continue with any persistent supercell structures. ..Dean.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 42547207 44187120 44867033 45516873 45566820 45286796 44846827 44376900 44026998 43277058 42607056 42017061 41347258 41217331 41627302 42547207 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0607 Status Updates
000-VTZ000-CWZ000-062140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CXY TO 20 W BDR TO 30 ESE EEN TO 50 NNW BGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045 ..WEINMAN..09/06/25 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...LWX...GYX...CAR...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 607 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-007-009-013-015-062140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC001-003-062140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE MEC001-005-011-019-023-027-031-062140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 2044 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN GA INTO WESTERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 2044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Areas affected...Northern GA into western SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061805Z - 062000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms this afternoon. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Along/ahead of the trailing portion of a slow-moving cold front extending into northern GA, thunderstorms are beginning to increase in intensity and coverage -- potentially aided by a convectively enhanced midlevel impulse approaching the area from the west. Continued differential heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will destabilize the inflow for these storms as they spread/develop eastward through the afternoon. While generally weak deep-layer flow/shear (per FFC VWP) should favor outflow dominant storms, enhanced westerly flow in the 6-8-km layer (preceding the midlevel impulse) may promote a few loosely organized clusters, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 34118498 34448463 34868391 35168301 35128253 34808212 34228228 33288319 32978391 32988442 33288483 33698502 34118498 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...20z Update... A severe convective line has evolved across the New England region earlier than anticipated by most guidance - even recent CAM solutions - and has a history of producing severe gusts and wind damage. Across New England ahead of the line, skies are gradually clearing with temperatures warming into the low 80s. This is supporting a gradual increase in MLCAPE that should maintain the squall line as it approaches the coast through early evening. Any appreciable tornado potential appears highest across this region based on recent radar trends that depict meridionally-oriented segments of the line that may support brief circulations. Severe risk probabilities have been adjusted to reflect these recent convective trends both ahead of and behind the line. Further to the southwest, more transient, but at times intense, convection continues to develop along the cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Isolated instances of severe hail/wind will remain possible through the evening hours as thunderstorms develop within a buoyant, but modestly sheared environment. ..Moore.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...20z Update... A severe convective line has evolved across the New England region earlier than anticipated by most guidance - even recent CAM solutions - and has a history of producing severe gusts and wind damage. Across New England ahead of the line, skies are gradually clearing with temperatures warming into the low 80s. This is supporting a gradual increase in MLCAPE that should maintain the squall line as it approaches the coast through early evening. Any appreciable tornado potential appears highest across this region based on recent radar trends that depict meridionally-oriented segments of the line that may support brief circulations. Severe risk probabilities have been adjusted to reflect these recent convective trends both ahead of and behind the line. Further to the southwest, more transient, but at times intense, convection continues to develop along the cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Isolated instances of severe hail/wind will remain possible through the evening hours as thunderstorms develop within a buoyant, but modestly sheared environment. ..Moore.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. Read more