Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A broad upper-level low over the western U.S. on Day 3/Thursday will slowly pivot into the Central/Northern Plains by Day 6/Sunday. This will gradually push showers and thunderstorm development east of the Continental Divide early next week but not after leaving a trail of wetting rains across the Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, further mitigating fire weather concerns. Elevated mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the low will promote dry and breezy conditions across northern AZ and southern UT on Day 3/Thursday, but marginal fuel dryness precludes introducing 40% critical probabilities at this time. Lighter low-level winds in the wake of the upper-low's exit into the Plains will subdue fire weather concerns across the Southwest from Day 4/Friday into the weekend. Increasing ensemble member spread introduces considerable uncertainty into the timing and position of the next Pacific trough into the Northwest. However, with expected preceding precipitation and its effect on fuels as well as the potential for additional rainfall and cooler temperatures accompanying the next trough, fire weather threat should remain muted in the Day 6-8/Sunday-Monday period across the Northwest. ..Williams.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A homeowner in South Ryegate, (Caledonia Co.) Vermont has been carrying water to his home from a nearby creek two gallons at a time after his 150-year-old spring-fed well went dry. He uses the creek water to wash dishes, flush the toilet and water his garden. Valley News (Lebanon, N.H.), Sep 9, 2025

A conserve water notice took effect for Claremont on Wednesday, September 3. Residents were asked to voluntarily refrain from lawn watering, vehicle and pavement washing and other non-essential water uses. Valley News (Lebanon, N.H.), Sep 9, 2025

Lebanon gets its water from Mascoma Lake which has been declining since early August. To make sure that Macoma Lake has enough water for the town’s needs, the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services began releasing water from Grafton Pond through Crystal Lake which connects to Mascoma Lake at the start of September. Lebanon authorities issued a conserve water notice on Friday, Sep. 5. Valley News (Lebanon, N.H.), Sep 9, 2025

MD 2053 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO...WESTERN KS...THE OK PANHANDLE...AND FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2053 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO...western KS...the OK Panhandle...and far northern TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092006Z - 092200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms will be capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts this afternoon into tonight. Current thinking is that a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows two areas of gradually deepening/expanding boundary-layer cumulus in eastern CO -- both focused along weak surface boundaries/wind shifts. Shallow boundary-layer cumulus is also becoming evident over the central OK Panhandle into the north-central TX Panhandle, where another subtle surface boundary is evident. Continued mesoscale ascent and diurnal heating along these boundaries should reduce any remaining inhibition and support storm initiation between 20-23Z. High-based/semi-discrete storms should track/develop east-southeastward into an increasingly moist/unstable air mass (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly straight hodograph) should favor splitting cells with a risk of large hail and locally severe gusts. With time, storms may congeal into clusters as they move southward and intercept a gradually strengthening low-level jet this evening. Current thinking is that a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area, though timing is uncertain. ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38070258 38600275 39010306 39240341 39780347 40040315 39980234 39680162 38870089 36720051 36240087 36200136 37030200 37620237 38070258 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

As drought persisted and intensified, some communities were requesting that residents conserve water. Water users in Newbury, Vermont received a conserve water notice in mid-August. Valley News (Lebanon, N.H.), Sep 9, 2025

A well digger in Royalton, Vermont had received 10 to 15 calls by midday from people asking about new wells as the region endured drought which was causing many wells to produce less water than usual or even run dry. Jobs waited in Woodstock, Charlestown, Enfield and several locations in Royalton, but were coming in faster than he could dig a new well. Many of the wells have been in use for a long time and were shallow or spring-fed wells. New wells are drilled to around 500 feet deep. While business was much busier than usual, the majority, or about 80% of calls, was for replacement wells and 20% for new wells. Typically, 80% of the wells were for new construction with just 20% of the jobs being for replacement wells. Valley News (Lebanon, N.H.), Sep 9, 2025

WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0609 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0609 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 9 20:40:02 UTC 2025.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 09 2025 ZCZC HFOTCDCP4 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 39 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 09 2025 Satellite images show convection associated with Kiko remains displaced to the north of the low-level center within northerly outer bands. Strong southwesterly wind shear and drier air continues to limit the overall convection, especially near the center of the system through this morning. Lastest subjective estimates from SAB and PHFO, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased ranging from 25 to 43 kt. Using these estimates and the latest satellite trends, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Kiko continues to move west-northwestward at an estimated motion of 290/13 kt. The system has become a more shallow vortex and is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period, steered by the subtropical ridge. The official forecast track was nudged slightly left, and lies near the latest consensus aids. The cyclone remains is forecast to remain within a high shear environment over the next 18 h or so, afterwards shear subsides for about a day or so. When the shear subsides Kiko will remain over warm ocean temperatures and global model simulated infrared imagery show that the system could regain convection. However, it remains to be seen if the convection will be organized enough to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. By 48-60h, moderate to strong shear returns, and the system should continue to weaken, lose all convection, and eventually open into a trough dissipating by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast follows these weakening trends, and lies near the consensus intensity aids. It is noted that if Kiko does not produce organized convection soon as models show, the system may become post-tropical earlier than officially forecast. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands today and Wednesday. Additional weakening is expected, and the threat of direct impacts on the islands continues to diminish, though interests should still monitor Kiko's progress and the latest forecasts. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are gradually building from east to west across the exposed Hawaiian waters and are forecast to peak today through Wednesday, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Refer to the latest updates and forecasts issued from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 22.9N 154.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 23.4N 156.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 23.9N 159.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 24.7N 161.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 25.6N 163.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 26.3N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 26.9N 167.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN