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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more