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WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE GLH TO 15 E TUP TO 30 SW MSL TO 35 NNW HSV TO 30 NE HOP. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC079-083-022140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE KYC001-003-009-031-053-057-061-087-099-141-169-171-177-207-213- 217-219-227-022140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD WARREN MSC013-017-095-022140- MS Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE GLH TO 15 E TUP TO 30 SW MSL TO 35 NNW HSV TO 30 NE HOP. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC079-083-022140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE KYC001-003-009-031-053-057-061-087-099-141-169-171-177-207-213- 217-219-227-022140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD WARREN MSC013-017-095-022140- MS Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE GLH TO 15 E TUP TO 30 SW MSL TO 35 NNW HSV TO 30 NE HOP. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC079-083-022140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE KYC001-003-009-031-053-057-061-087-099-141-169-171-177-207-213- 217-219-227-022140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD WARREN MSC013-017-095-022140- MS Read more

WW 0209 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE GLH TO 15 E TUP TO 30 SW MSL TO 35 NNW HSV TO 30 NE HOP. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...LMK...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 209 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC079-083-022140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE KYC001-003-009-031-053-057-061-087-099-141-169-171-177-207-213- 217-219-227-022140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD WARREN MSC013-017-095-022140- MS Read more

WW 209 SEVERE TSTM AL AR KY MS TN 021500Z - 022200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama East Central Arkansas Southern Kentucky Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms will track across the watch area through the afternoon. A very moist and unstable air mass will promote a risk of damaging winds and large hail in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of Memphis TN to 75 miles east southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0652 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0652 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern OH and western PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210... Valid 021858Z - 022100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 210 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated quarter to half-dollar size hail along with localized strong gusts to around 60 mph should persist into early evening. DISCUSSION...Deeper convective cores have persisted just ahead of a weak cold front lagging in western OH. Numerous, but shallower updrafts, are present farther east-southeast in southern OH to western PA, where large-scale ascent is weaker. Area VWP data depicts nearly unidirectional southwesterly flow across the region, stronger closer to Lake Erie and diminishing south towards the OH River. Sporadic small to marginally severe hail should remain the overarching threat, but an increase in localized damaging winds may occur towards early evening as cells loosely consolidate and weaken. ..Grams.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41588141 41688054 41878002 41927964 41937951 41637921 41227914 40987917 40787933 40218043 39548170 39238222 39048274 39098329 39838302 40638247 41328186 41588141 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0651 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN TEXAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0651 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Texas...central and northern Louisiana...and central Mississippi Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211... Valid 021847Z - 022045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211. Large hail and damaging gusts remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters and transient supercells have oscillated in intensity across portions of far eastern TX into central MS over the past few hours, with a few reports of marginal severe hail received. These storms continue to progress eastward into a moderately unstable airmass (i.e. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), but relatively weak deep-layer shear. As such, the expectation is for multicellular clusters to continue fluctuating in strength through the afternoon, with strong/damaging gusts and large hail possible with a subset of storms at the peak of their intensity. ..Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31459480 32689225 33809018 33708866 33088844 32288929 31169155 30759270 30619347 30739445 31459480 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE LUK TO 25 NNW CMH TO 15 ENE YNG TO 25 WNW JHW. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-027-029-031-041-047-049-059-067-081-089-097-099-111- 119-121-151-157-022140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL CLINTON COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON LICKING MADISON MAHONING MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE STARK TUSCARAWAS PAC003-007-019-031-039-053-059-073-085-121-125-022140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY BEAVER BUTLER CLARION CRAWFORD FOREST GREENE LAWRENCE MERCER VENANGO WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-022140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC003-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-039-041-043- 049-059-061-065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-119-123- 127-022140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS UNION VERNON WEBSTER WEST CARROLL WINN Read more

WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S BWD TO 30 WNW TYR. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-015-021-027-029-031-041-051-053-055-089-091-123-145-149- 157-161-171-177-185-187-201-209-213-225-255-259-285-287-289-291- 293-299-309-313-331-339-349-373-395-407-453-455-471-473-477-491- 493-022140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON AUSTIN BASTROP BELL BEXAR BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND FREESTONE GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON KARNES KENDALL LAVACA LEE LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE LLANO MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NAVARRO POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON WILSON Read more

WW 0213 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 213 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BMG TO 50 S SDF. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 213 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-043-115-155-022140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FLOYD OHIO SWITZERLAND KYC005-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-029-037-041-045-049-051-063- 065-067-069-073-077-079-081-095-097-103-109-111-113-117-121-125- 129-131-135-137-147-151-153-155-161-165-167-173-175-179-181-185- 187-189-191-193-197-199-201-203-205-209-211-215-223-229-231-235- 237-239-022140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT BULLITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CASEY CLARK CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD Read more

MD 0653 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 212... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into southern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212... Valid 021905Z - 022030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212. Large hail is currently the main threat, though a couple of severe gusts and a tornado are also possible. The best chance for a tornado exists with supercell structures that are attempting to mature along an outflow boundary. DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of strong to severe thunderstorms are developing or are underway across portions of central into southern Texas. Multiple storms are attempting to mature along a southward surging cold front in central TX, with supercells also developing along a residual outflow boundary from earlier storms over central into southern TX. The greatest short-term threat for severe, including the possibility for a tornado or instance of 2+ inch diameter hail, exists with the outflow-boundary supercells. Here, the HGX VAD profile shows an elongated hodograph with modest curvature in the lowest few km. The severe threat should persist across central into southern TX for several more hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30259922 31249865 32069786 32349608 31799530 31059468 30239458 29909479 29559547 29209673 28939744 28909786 29079842 29469888 30259922 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0214 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 214 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 214 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC009-043-049-055-057-063-071-073-075-089-093-095-103-107-115- 119-125-127-133-022140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE GREENE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS ST. CLAIR SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0215 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 215 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/02/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-019-105-127-137-163-265-267-271-323-325-385-435-463-465- 507-022140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BANDERA CROCKETT DIMMIT EDWARDS FRIO KERR KIMBLE KINNEY MAVERICK MEDINA REAL SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0650 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 021823Z - 022030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase over portions of southwestern Texas through the afternoon. Supercells capable of producing large hail (some 2+ inch in diameter) and severe wind gusts are likely, and a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary continues to sag southward as a small scale front/boundary advances from the Stockton Plateau. Ahead of both boundaries, the boundary layer continues to destabilize, with 3000 J/kg MLCAPE already in place given the presence of upper 60s F surface dewpoints overspread by 8-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 18Z mesoanalysis). 60-80 kts of 300 mb westerly flow are also beginning to overspread the international border given the presence of a sub-tropical jet. As such, 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear is in place, in tandem with the aforementioned buoyancy, to support the development of supercells this afternoon. Severe hail and wind are the main threats. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail may occur, along with a tornado. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29590204 30380193 30980140 31220033 31209921 30609908 29739935 29239974 29020026 29070067 29370105 29590145 29620163 29590204 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0649 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...213... FOR TN TO OH VALLEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Areas affected...TN to OH Valleys Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...213... Valid 021802Z - 022000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209, 213 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic large hail and damaging winds will persist through late afternoon across a broad swath from the Tennessee to the Ohio Valleys. Damaging wind potential may be greater across the Kentucky portion in the near-term and in middle to eastern Tennessee later. DISCUSSION...A messy overall convective mode has persisted with several convective bands and discrete cells across a broad swath of the Deep to Mid-South. Low-level flow has been weak to modest across much of these regions, with nearly unidirectional moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies. One exception has been with the northern portion of the band in western KY where HPX VWP data sampled a 40-45 kt rear-inflow jet. Southern activity should be dominated by sporadic large hail potential in the near-term, before greater amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs. This should support increasing wind potential south of KY by late afternoon. ..Grams.. 05/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 35518433 34318518 33898643 33628760 33688842 34598834 35558737 36568707 37588733 38108705 38608573 38548480 38368410 38028353 35518433 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening. This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...20z Update... The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely. ...Rio Grand Valley to LA... South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind threat should increase through this evening as the front continues south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight. ...GA into the western Carolinas... A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools gradually coalesce. ...TN Valley... The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this evening. ..Lyons.. 05/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/ ...TN/OH Valleys... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass, where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become better organized. Reference WW 209. ...OH/PA... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Reference MCD #645. ...TX/LA... A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg). Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential. Reference MCD #646. Read more