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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...20z update... Minimal changes were made to the current forecast, mostly trimming probabilities from the west. A broad corridor of severe potential continues from southern New England to the Gulf Coast. Partial diurnal heating east of the frontal zone is supporting a few clusters of stronger storms from southern NY/New England and the Mid Atlantic to the western Carolinas. 30-40 kt of bulk shear, in combination with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor damaging winds as the main threat with the multicell clusters or transient supercells that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening. Some sporadic hail and a brief tornado will also be possible with any stronger rotating storms. ...AL and western GA... Another corridor of locally stronger clusters may evolve across the Gulf Coast, to central AL and into western GA later this afternoon into the evening. Here, stronger diurnal heating (temps in the mid to upper 70s F) amid enhanced mid-level flow from the sub tropical jet may pose a locally greater severe risk for a few hours. A mix of line segments and some supercell structures could pose a locally greater severe risk. Some consideration was given to higher wind probabilities here, but confidence in more robust convective organization remains low, with lingering cloud cover, modest forcing and limited buoyancy. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...20z update... Minimal changes were made to the current forecast, mostly trimming probabilities from the west. A broad corridor of severe potential continues from southern New England to the Gulf Coast. Partial diurnal heating east of the frontal zone is supporting a few clusters of stronger storms from southern NY/New England and the Mid Atlantic to the western Carolinas. 30-40 kt of bulk shear, in combination with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor damaging winds as the main threat with the multicell clusters or transient supercells that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening. Some sporadic hail and a brief tornado will also be possible with any stronger rotating storms. ...AL and western GA... Another corridor of locally stronger clusters may evolve across the Gulf Coast, to central AL and into western GA later this afternoon into the evening. Here, stronger diurnal heating (temps in the mid to upper 70s F) amid enhanced mid-level flow from the sub tropical jet may pose a locally greater severe risk for a few hours. A mix of line segments and some supercell structures could pose a locally greater severe risk. Some consideration was given to higher wind probabilities here, but confidence in more robust convective organization remains low, with lingering cloud cover, modest forcing and limited buoyancy. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...20z update... Minimal changes were made to the current forecast, mostly trimming probabilities from the west. A broad corridor of severe potential continues from southern New England to the Gulf Coast. Partial diurnal heating east of the frontal zone is supporting a few clusters of stronger storms from southern NY/New England and the Mid Atlantic to the western Carolinas. 30-40 kt of bulk shear, in combination with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor damaging winds as the main threat with the multicell clusters or transient supercells that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening. Some sporadic hail and a brief tornado will also be possible with any stronger rotating storms. ...AL and western GA... Another corridor of locally stronger clusters may evolve across the Gulf Coast, to central AL and into western GA later this afternoon into the evening. Here, stronger diurnal heating (temps in the mid to upper 70s F) amid enhanced mid-level flow from the sub tropical jet may pose a locally greater severe risk for a few hours. A mix of line segments and some supercell structures could pose a locally greater severe risk. Some consideration was given to higher wind probabilities here, but confidence in more robust convective organization remains low, with lingering cloud cover, modest forcing and limited buoyancy. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...20z update... Minimal changes were made to the current forecast, mostly trimming probabilities from the west. A broad corridor of severe potential continues from southern New England to the Gulf Coast. Partial diurnal heating east of the frontal zone is supporting a few clusters of stronger storms from southern NY/New England and the Mid Atlantic to the western Carolinas. 30-40 kt of bulk shear, in combination with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor damaging winds as the main threat with the multicell clusters or transient supercells that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening. Some sporadic hail and a brief tornado will also be possible with any stronger rotating storms. ...AL and western GA... Another corridor of locally stronger clusters may evolve across the Gulf Coast, to central AL and into western GA later this afternoon into the evening. Here, stronger diurnal heating (temps in the mid to upper 70s F) amid enhanced mid-level flow from the sub tropical jet may pose a locally greater severe risk for a few hours. A mix of line segments and some supercell structures could pose a locally greater severe risk. Some consideration was given to higher wind probabilities here, but confidence in more robust convective organization remains low, with lingering cloud cover, modest forcing and limited buoyancy. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged, see the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. Read more

MD 0666 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031734Z - 032000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase into the afternoon hours. At least isolated instances of strong/damaging gusts or large hail are possible with the stronger, sustained storms. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts deepening convection along the MS/AL border, with 40 dBZ echoes reaching 30 kft amid increasing lightning trends. These storms are attempting to strengthen amid a modestly sheared airmass (i.e. 40 kts of effective bulk shear per 17Z mesoanalysis and regional VADs). However, buoyancy still remains quite marginal, with surface temperatures/dewpoints in the 60s F, beneath 6 C/km tropospheric lapse rates, contributing to 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Diurnal heating may further boost low-level lapse rates, supporting better boundary-layer buoyancy and the potential for stronger storms later this afternoon, with mixed storm modes supporting the threat for strong/damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. It is unclear how widespread the severe potential will become since ample cloud cover may continue to inhibit diurnal heating to some degree. If greater buoyancy is realized than forecast, then regionally greater severe potential may materialize, which could necessitate a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 31588904 32108926 32918868 34438751 35028710 35188672 34928605 33628598 32378640 31848706 31638802 31588904 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S POU TO 15 ENE PSF TO 25 ESE LCI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668. ..GRAMS..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...OKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-005-013-032040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD LITCHFIELD TOLLAND MAC011-013-015-017-027-032040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER NHC005-011-015-032040- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH ROCKINGHAM Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida east coast and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity. ...Southern High Plains into central Texas... The upper shortwave trough/low over the Southwest will pivot east to the southern Rockies/High Plains on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region as this occurs. In the low-levels, lee troughing will strengthen along the High Plains with a small surface low forming over far west TX. Strengthening southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northwest, with upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints expected across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region. More modest moisture will extend northward into the TX/OK Panhandles and southeast CO to the north of a warm front draped across north-central TX. Strong heating along the dryline extending along the TX/NM border vicinity into the Big Bend is forecast. Cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability is expected. Supercell wind profiles, with curved low-level hodographs, becoming elongated/straight above 2-3 km suggest large to very large hail will be possible with initial convection. Additional storms are likely to develop in the low-level warm advection regime along the warm front, and as a low-level jet strengthens during the evening/overnight. This may support upscale development with time, and an MCS could form and track across central TX with an attendant risk for damaging gusts. More isolated storms are expected within the modestly unstable, but still strongly sheared environment with northward extent across the OK/TX Panhandles into southeast CO. Hail and gust winds may occur with this activity into Monday evening. ...North Carolina to Lake Erie... The upper cyclone over KY early Monday will lift northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley. Enhanced mid/upper flow will persist over the region while cooling aloft supports modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. At the surface, southeasterly low-level flow will support mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. Diurnal heating may be limited by cloudiness and perhaps areas of morning showers. Nevertheless, modest destabilization to less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Sufficient vertical shear will be present for some cellular organization, and isolated hail and perhaps locally gusty winds will be possible. ...Florida... Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon in a moderately unstable airmass (supported by mid 60s dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft). Low to midlevel flow will remain weak on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone over the Ohio Valley. However, vertically veering profiles becoming northwesterly above 500 mb will support around 25 kt effective shear, and elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated hail and gusty winds are possible. ..Leitman.. 05/03/2025 Read more