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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England... Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, including western/northern Virginia and parts of West Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately buoyant warm sector. Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley... Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi. ...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for isolated supercell/related hail potential. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England... Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, including western/northern Virginia and parts of West Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately buoyant warm sector. Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley... Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi. ...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for isolated supercell/related hail potential. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England... Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, including western/northern Virginia and parts of West Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately buoyant warm sector. Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley... Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi. ...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for isolated supercell/related hail potential. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England... Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, including western/northern Virginia and parts of West Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately buoyant warm sector. Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley... Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi. ...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for isolated supercell/related hail potential. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England... Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, including western/northern Virginia and parts of West Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately buoyant warm sector. Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley... Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi. ...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for isolated supercell/related hail potential. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England... Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, including western/northern Virginia and parts of West Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately buoyant warm sector. Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley... Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi. ...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for isolated supercell/related hail potential. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England... Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, including western/northern Virginia and parts of West Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately buoyant warm sector. Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley... Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi. ...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for isolated supercell/related hail potential. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England... Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, including western/northern Virginia and parts of West Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately buoyant warm sector. Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley... Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi. ...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for isolated supercell/related hail potential. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England... Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, including western/northern Virginia and parts of West Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately buoyant warm sector. Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley... Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi. ...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for isolated supercell/related hail potential. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... The upper low in the Four Corners region will make more progress eastward on Tuesday. It will be weakening with time, however. The surface pattern in turn will be somewhat disorganized. At least some southeasterly winds at the surface will continue to advect richer moisture into Central and East Texas. A warm front will be positioned from the central Gulf coast northwestward to near the Red River. A composite front/dryline is also expected in Central Texas. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with early period precipitation and has the farthest south cluster/MCS comparatively as well. Given the forcing from an ejecting shortwave trough and stronger 850 mb flow into the warm front, this solution appears to be more plausible at this point. This would lead to considerable uncertainty as to the degree of destabilization in parts of Central Texas into the Sabine Valley. That said, wind fields will be supportive of severe storms. Should more limited precipitation occur, severe storms could be more focused along the warm front and dryline. Confidence in placement of key features remains too low for highlights at this time. ...D5/Wednesday... The upper-level low will become an open wave by Wednesday. Significant loss of amplitude is also expected by this time. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will remain over coastal Texas into the central and parts of the eastern Gulf coast. With this upper-level and surface pattern, it is not clear how far inland greater buoyancy will reach. This uncertainty coupled with storm development not being favorably timed diurnally reduces confidence in highlighting any corridors of greater severe potential. ...D6/Thursday into the Weekend... The elongated upper trough is forecast to become another weak cutoff low in the lower Mississippi Valley. In the West, an upper-level ridge will build and move over the Plains by the weekend. This pattern does not suggest a significant risk of organized severe storms, though mesoscale/conditional areas may eventually become evident. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... The upper low in the Four Corners region will make more progress eastward on Tuesday. It will be weakening with time, however. The surface pattern in turn will be somewhat disorganized. At least some southeasterly winds at the surface will continue to advect richer moisture into Central and East Texas. A warm front will be positioned from the central Gulf coast northwestward to near the Red River. A composite front/dryline is also expected in Central Texas. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with early period precipitation and has the farthest south cluster/MCS comparatively as well. Given the forcing from an ejecting shortwave trough and stronger 850 mb flow into the warm front, this solution appears to be more plausible at this point. This would lead to considerable uncertainty as to the degree of destabilization in parts of Central Texas into the Sabine Valley. That said, wind fields will be supportive of severe storms. Should more limited precipitation occur, severe storms could be more focused along the warm front and dryline. Confidence in placement of key features remains too low for highlights at this time. ...D5/Wednesday... The upper-level low will become an open wave by Wednesday. Significant loss of amplitude is also expected by this time. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will remain over coastal Texas into the central and parts of the eastern Gulf coast. With this upper-level and surface pattern, it is not clear how far inland greater buoyancy will reach. This uncertainty coupled with storm development not being favorably timed diurnally reduces confidence in highlighting any corridors of greater severe potential. ...D6/Thursday into the Weekend... The elongated upper trough is forecast to become another weak cutoff low in the lower Mississippi Valley. In the West, an upper-level ridge will build and move over the Plains by the weekend. This pattern does not suggest a significant risk of organized severe storms, though mesoscale/conditional areas may eventually become evident. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... The upper low in the Four Corners region will make more progress eastward on Tuesday. It will be weakening with time, however. The surface pattern in turn will be somewhat disorganized. At least some southeasterly winds at the surface will continue to advect richer moisture into Central and East Texas. A warm front will be positioned from the central Gulf coast northwestward to near the Red River. A composite front/dryline is also expected in Central Texas. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with early period precipitation and has the farthest south cluster/MCS comparatively as well. Given the forcing from an ejecting shortwave trough and stronger 850 mb flow into the warm front, this solution appears to be more plausible at this point. This would lead to considerable uncertainty as to the degree of destabilization in parts of Central Texas into the Sabine Valley. That said, wind fields will be supportive of severe storms. Should more limited precipitation occur, severe storms could be more focused along the warm front and dryline. Confidence in placement of key features remains too low for highlights at this time. ...D5/Wednesday... The upper-level low will become an open wave by Wednesday. Significant loss of amplitude is also expected by this time. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will remain over coastal Texas into the central and parts of the eastern Gulf coast. With this upper-level and surface pattern, it is not clear how far inland greater buoyancy will reach. This uncertainty coupled with storm development not being favorably timed diurnally reduces confidence in highlighting any corridors of greater severe potential. ...D6/Thursday into the Weekend... The elongated upper trough is forecast to become another weak cutoff low in the lower Mississippi Valley. In the West, an upper-level ridge will build and move over the Plains by the weekend. This pattern does not suggest a significant risk of organized severe storms, though mesoscale/conditional areas may eventually become evident. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... The upper low in the Four Corners region will make more progress eastward on Tuesday. It will be weakening with time, however. The surface pattern in turn will be somewhat disorganized. At least some southeasterly winds at the surface will continue to advect richer moisture into Central and East Texas. A warm front will be positioned from the central Gulf coast northwestward to near the Red River. A composite front/dryline is also expected in Central Texas. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with early period precipitation and has the farthest south cluster/MCS comparatively as well. Given the forcing from an ejecting shortwave trough and stronger 850 mb flow into the warm front, this solution appears to be more plausible at this point. This would lead to considerable uncertainty as to the degree of destabilization in parts of Central Texas into the Sabine Valley. That said, wind fields will be supportive of severe storms. Should more limited precipitation occur, severe storms could be more focused along the warm front and dryline. Confidence in placement of key features remains too low for highlights at this time. ...D5/Wednesday... The upper-level low will become an open wave by Wednesday. Significant loss of amplitude is also expected by this time. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will remain over coastal Texas into the central and parts of the eastern Gulf coast. With this upper-level and surface pattern, it is not clear how far inland greater buoyancy will reach. This uncertainty coupled with storm development not being favorably timed diurnally reduces confidence in highlighting any corridors of greater severe potential. ...D6/Thursday into the Weekend... The elongated upper trough is forecast to become another weak cutoff low in the lower Mississippi Valley. In the West, an upper-level ridge will build and move over the Plains by the weekend. This pattern does not suggest a significant risk of organized severe storms, though mesoscale/conditional areas may eventually become evident. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... The upper low in the Four Corners region will make more progress eastward on Tuesday. It will be weakening with time, however. The surface pattern in turn will be somewhat disorganized. At least some southeasterly winds at the surface will continue to advect richer moisture into Central and East Texas. A warm front will be positioned from the central Gulf coast northwestward to near the Red River. A composite front/dryline is also expected in Central Texas. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with early period precipitation and has the farthest south cluster/MCS comparatively as well. Given the forcing from an ejecting shortwave trough and stronger 850 mb flow into the warm front, this solution appears to be more plausible at this point. This would lead to considerable uncertainty as to the degree of destabilization in parts of Central Texas into the Sabine Valley. That said, wind fields will be supportive of severe storms. Should more limited precipitation occur, severe storms could be more focused along the warm front and dryline. Confidence in placement of key features remains too low for highlights at this time. ...D5/Wednesday... The upper-level low will become an open wave by Wednesday. Significant loss of amplitude is also expected by this time. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will remain over coastal Texas into the central and parts of the eastern Gulf coast. With this upper-level and surface pattern, it is not clear how far inland greater buoyancy will reach. This uncertainty coupled with storm development not being favorably timed diurnally reduces confidence in highlighting any corridors of greater severe potential. ...D6/Thursday into the Weekend... The elongated upper trough is forecast to become another weak cutoff low in the lower Mississippi Valley. In the West, an upper-level ridge will build and move over the Plains by the weekend. This pattern does not suggest a significant risk of organized severe storms, though mesoscale/conditional areas may eventually become evident. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... The upper low in the Four Corners region will make more progress eastward on Tuesday. It will be weakening with time, however. The surface pattern in turn will be somewhat disorganized. At least some southeasterly winds at the surface will continue to advect richer moisture into Central and East Texas. A warm front will be positioned from the central Gulf coast northwestward to near the Red River. A composite front/dryline is also expected in Central Texas. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with early period precipitation and has the farthest south cluster/MCS comparatively as well. Given the forcing from an ejecting shortwave trough and stronger 850 mb flow into the warm front, this solution appears to be more plausible at this point. This would lead to considerable uncertainty as to the degree of destabilization in parts of Central Texas into the Sabine Valley. That said, wind fields will be supportive of severe storms. Should more limited precipitation occur, severe storms could be more focused along the warm front and dryline. Confidence in placement of key features remains too low for highlights at this time. ...D5/Wednesday... The upper-level low will become an open wave by Wednesday. Significant loss of amplitude is also expected by this time. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will remain over coastal Texas into the central and parts of the eastern Gulf coast. With this upper-level and surface pattern, it is not clear how far inland greater buoyancy will reach. This uncertainty coupled with storm development not being favorably timed diurnally reduces confidence in highlighting any corridors of greater severe potential. ...D6/Thursday into the Weekend... The elongated upper trough is forecast to become another weak cutoff low in the lower Mississippi Valley. In the West, an upper-level ridge will build and move over the Plains by the weekend. This pattern does not suggest a significant risk of organized severe storms, though mesoscale/conditional areas may eventually become evident. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms capable of large hail are possible along the eastern Florida Peninsula coast. ...Synopsis... With the upper-level blocking pattern still in place, movement of the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will be slow. The Southwest upper low is expected to make enough progress eastward that stronger mid-level winds will spread more broadly across the southern Plains. ...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains/central Texas... Moisture return will continue roughly along the Rio Grande Valley into portions of central Texas and the Permian Basin. Models differ on the northward advancement of this moisture, but generally agree that low 60s F dewpoints should reach southeast New Mexico and parts of the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. As the mid-level shortwave trough ejects into the region by the afternoon, convection is expected to form within the Davis Sacramento Mountains as well as on the surface trough/dryline. These initial storms will likely be supercellular given 50-55 kts of effective shear and 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Large to very-large hail and isolated severe gusts would be the main threats. During the evening, the low-level jet and moisture advection will strengthen. Upscale growth into one or more clusters of storms will be possible as this occurs. This pattern would support MCS development and a greater risk for severe wind gusts, but with the placement of the theta-e gradient uncertain, an increase in severe probabilities will be withheld at this point. Additional strong/severe storms are possible along the pseudo warm front/moisture gradient in central Texas during the afternoon. There is some potential for additional activity during the evening overnight depending on the evolution of convective clusters/MCSs farther west. ...Florida... Moderately strong flow aloft will continue on Monday across the Florida Peninsula on the southern flank of the upper low. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) and stronger surface heating should promote 1500 to perhaps 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. As storms develop on the eastern sea breeze boundary, a few strong to severe storms will be capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. ...Mid-Atlantic... Early day precipitation and cloud cover make afternoon destabilization uncertain in this region. Winds fields will support organized storms, however. If confidence increases in greater destabilization within parts of the Blue Ridge/Piedmont region, a marginal hail/wind risk may be warranted. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms capable of large hail are possible along the eastern Florida Peninsula coast. ...Synopsis... With the upper-level blocking pattern still in place, movement of the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will be slow. The Southwest upper low is expected to make enough progress eastward that stronger mid-level winds will spread more broadly across the southern Plains. ...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains/central Texas... Moisture return will continue roughly along the Rio Grande Valley into portions of central Texas and the Permian Basin. Models differ on the northward advancement of this moisture, but generally agree that low 60s F dewpoints should reach southeast New Mexico and parts of the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. As the mid-level shortwave trough ejects into the region by the afternoon, convection is expected to form within the Davis Sacramento Mountains as well as on the surface trough/dryline. These initial storms will likely be supercellular given 50-55 kts of effective shear and 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Large to very-large hail and isolated severe gusts would be the main threats. During the evening, the low-level jet and moisture advection will strengthen. Upscale growth into one or more clusters of storms will be possible as this occurs. This pattern would support MCS development and a greater risk for severe wind gusts, but with the placement of the theta-e gradient uncertain, an increase in severe probabilities will be withheld at this point. Additional strong/severe storms are possible along the pseudo warm front/moisture gradient in central Texas during the afternoon. There is some potential for additional activity during the evening overnight depending on the evolution of convective clusters/MCSs farther west. ...Florida... Moderately strong flow aloft will continue on Monday across the Florida Peninsula on the southern flank of the upper low. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) and stronger surface heating should promote 1500 to perhaps 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. As storms develop on the eastern sea breeze boundary, a few strong to severe storms will be capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. ...Mid-Atlantic... Early day precipitation and cloud cover make afternoon destabilization uncertain in this region. Winds fields will support organized storms, however. If confidence increases in greater destabilization within parts of the Blue Ridge/Piedmont region, a marginal hail/wind risk may be warranted. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms capable of large hail are possible along the eastern Florida Peninsula coast. ...Synopsis... With the upper-level blocking pattern still in place, movement of the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will be slow. The Southwest upper low is expected to make enough progress eastward that stronger mid-level winds will spread more broadly across the southern Plains. ...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains/central Texas... Moisture return will continue roughly along the Rio Grande Valley into portions of central Texas and the Permian Basin. Models differ on the northward advancement of this moisture, but generally agree that low 60s F dewpoints should reach southeast New Mexico and parts of the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. As the mid-level shortwave trough ejects into the region by the afternoon, convection is expected to form within the Davis Sacramento Mountains as well as on the surface trough/dryline. These initial storms will likely be supercellular given 50-55 kts of effective shear and 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Large to very-large hail and isolated severe gusts would be the main threats. During the evening, the low-level jet and moisture advection will strengthen. Upscale growth into one or more clusters of storms will be possible as this occurs. This pattern would support MCS development and a greater risk for severe wind gusts, but with the placement of the theta-e gradient uncertain, an increase in severe probabilities will be withheld at this point. Additional strong/severe storms are possible along the pseudo warm front/moisture gradient in central Texas during the afternoon. There is some potential for additional activity during the evening overnight depending on the evolution of convective clusters/MCSs farther west. ...Florida... Moderately strong flow aloft will continue on Monday across the Florida Peninsula on the southern flank of the upper low. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) and stronger surface heating should promote 1500 to perhaps 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. As storms develop on the eastern sea breeze boundary, a few strong to severe storms will be capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. ...Mid-Atlantic... Early day precipitation and cloud cover make afternoon destabilization uncertain in this region. Winds fields will support organized storms, however. If confidence increases in greater destabilization within parts of the Blue Ridge/Piedmont region, a marginal hail/wind risk may be warranted. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms capable of large hail are possible along the eastern Florida Peninsula coast. ...Synopsis... With the upper-level blocking pattern still in place, movement of the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will be slow. The Southwest upper low is expected to make enough progress eastward that stronger mid-level winds will spread more broadly across the southern Plains. ...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains/central Texas... Moisture return will continue roughly along the Rio Grande Valley into portions of central Texas and the Permian Basin. Models differ on the northward advancement of this moisture, but generally agree that low 60s F dewpoints should reach southeast New Mexico and parts of the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. As the mid-level shortwave trough ejects into the region by the afternoon, convection is expected to form within the Davis Sacramento Mountains as well as on the surface trough/dryline. These initial storms will likely be supercellular given 50-55 kts of effective shear and 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Large to very-large hail and isolated severe gusts would be the main threats. During the evening, the low-level jet and moisture advection will strengthen. Upscale growth into one or more clusters of storms will be possible as this occurs. This pattern would support MCS development and a greater risk for severe wind gusts, but with the placement of the theta-e gradient uncertain, an increase in severe probabilities will be withheld at this point. Additional strong/severe storms are possible along the pseudo warm front/moisture gradient in central Texas during the afternoon. There is some potential for additional activity during the evening overnight depending on the evolution of convective clusters/MCSs farther west. ...Florida... Moderately strong flow aloft will continue on Monday across the Florida Peninsula on the southern flank of the upper low. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) and stronger surface heating should promote 1500 to perhaps 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. As storms develop on the eastern sea breeze boundary, a few strong to severe storms will be capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. ...Mid-Atlantic... Early day precipitation and cloud cover make afternoon destabilization uncertain in this region. Winds fields will support organized storms, however. If confidence increases in greater destabilization within parts of the Blue Ridge/Piedmont region, a marginal hail/wind risk may be warranted. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2025 Read more