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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat May 3 16:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more