SPC May 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FL...MUCH OF GA AND SC...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NC...NRN/ERN AL...ADJACENT SRN TN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains similar to prior runs concerning the mid/upper flow evolution through this period. Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast, downstream of a prominent ridge now building across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It still appears that at least one notable smaller-scale perturbation emerging from this trough will accelerate northeast of the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging encompassing much of the U.S. northern Great Plains through the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences linger among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow Much of this corridor may be impacted by considerable remnant convectively generated cloud cover, and perhaps continuing scattered thunderstorm development, at the outset of the period. However, the environment appears at least conditionally supportive of organized convection, including supercells, with potential to produce tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. And breaks in the cloud cover during the day may allow for sufficient insolation and boundary-layer destabilization to allow for some of this potential to be realized. Otherwise, closer to the mid-level cold core, models suggest that forcing for ascent downstream of an embedded cyclonic vorticity center may aid thunderstorm development across the northern/eastern Alabama into western Georgia vicinity. Despite at least some low-level drying in the wake of the aforementioned moist plume, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small to marginally severe hail in widely scattered stronger cells, in the presence of modest deep-layer shear. ..Kerr.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FL...MUCH OF GA AND SC...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NC...NRN/ERN AL...ADJACENT SRN TN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains similar to prior runs concerning the mid/upper flow evolution through this period. Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast, downstream of a prominent ridge now building across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It still appears that at least one notable smaller-scale perturbation emerging from this trough will accelerate northeast of the northern U.S. Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad downstream ridging encompassing much of the U.S. northern Great Plains through the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will shift east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains. However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower Mississippi Valley. Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow; however, models indicate that it will probably elongate north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad, weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard. ...Southeast... Differences linger among the various model output, but the gradient between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb) along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent southwesterly high-level flow Much of this corridor may be impacted by considerable remnant convectively generated cloud cover, and perhaps continuing scattered thunderstorm development, at the outset of the period. However, the environment appears at least conditionally supportive of organized convection, including supercells, with potential to produce tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. And breaks in the cloud cover during the day may allow for sufficient insolation and boundary-layer destabilization to allow for some of this potential to be realized. Otherwise, closer to the mid-level cold core, models suggest that forcing for ascent downstream of an embedded cyclonic vorticity center may aid thunderstorm development across the northern/eastern Alabama into western Georgia vicinity. Despite at least some low-level drying in the wake of the aforementioned moist plume, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small to marginally severe hail in widely scattered stronger cells, in the presence of modest deep-layer shear. ..Kerr.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST ID TO CENTRAL/EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible across a part of the Northwest from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... A broad upper trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will largely remain anchored off the BC and Pacific Northwest Coast. A fast mid-level jet, in excess of 70 kts at 500 mb, will overspread northern CA today and expand towards the northern Rockies through 12Z Monday. Displaced northeast of this strong flow regime, a broad swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected to peak during the late afternoon and early evening. Similar to Sunday, sporadic severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard owing to deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastern extent from southeast ID to central/eastern MT. Pockets of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the OR/WA/ID border area into central MT, and separately over southeast ID into Yellowstone. These structures may further aid in the downstream severe wind threat in MT. ...Southeast... A mid/upper cyclone will drift east across the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys through early Monday. The belt of stronger mid/upper flow will largely remain centered over the northeast Gulf Coast, with weaker branches curling northwest towards the Mid-South and the other continuing across the South Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to be ongoing across the northeast Gulf through the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA and near coastal SC. The primary concern with the Panhandle to Chattahoochee Valley convection is for potential of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds through late morning. A 30-40 kt low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs, especially towards the coast. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode by 12Z given near-parallel alignment of the deep-layer shear vector and initial north/south-oriented convective swath. More widespread convection should form along large-scale outflow into the afternoon, which will tend to push east-northeast, and sea breeze boundaries. Downstream wind profiles appear less favorable for organized storms. Weak mid-level lapse rates should further marginalize/maintain an isolated severe threat towards the South Atlantic States. Farther west in AL to MS, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, mainly from late afternoon into mid-evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC MD 762

3 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0762 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...parts of south-central GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102347Z - 110145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms, including a few more organized supercells, may pose a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two for a few hours this evening. A greater severe risk requiring WW issuance is not anticipated, though trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed a cluster of somewhat better organized convection has evolved near a partially modified stationary front over parts of south-central GA. Downstream of the broad upper low over the northern Gulf, weak ascent and inland moisture advection will likely continue to support strong to severe storms in this zone this evening. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F, are supporting around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst 30+ kt of mid-level flow from the KJGX VAD. With backed low-level winds long the boundary, shear is favorable for storm organization into clusters and supercell structures. Damaging winds are the most likely threat given relatively saturated low-levels and modest mid-level lapse rates. However, hail will be possible with the deeper storms. A tornado or two may also occur with enhanced SRH and backed-low level flow, especially near and along the frontal zone. While some storm organization is likely for a few hours this evening, the lack of broader ascent/destabilization suggests the threat will be confined both temporarily and spatial near the front. A WW is not currently anticipated, though conditions will continue to be monitored for changes. ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31908456 32518405 32958281 32778229 32418209 32048229 31868267 31728339 31648407 31908456 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC May 11, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

3 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts may persist this evening over parts of the northern Rockies. A brief tornado or two, along with locally damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast into Sunday morning. ...Southeast... Primary severe potential early tonight should be confined to near the slow-moving warm front across parts of south GA into far southern SC. Enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary may support a few transient supercell structures persisting this evening. Bulk of this convection should diminish though and/or shift off the Lower Savannah Valley and coastal SC by early morning. A brief tornado and localized damaging winds are the primary hazards. Afternoon guidance continued to signal scattered convection redeveloping later tonight through mid-morning Sunday from portions of the northeast Gulf across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL into far southwest GA along a north-south/oriented confluence band. This will be aided by strengthening upper-level diffluence downstream of a jetlet ejecting into the central Gulf. Given the meridional deep-layer flow regime, largely paralleling the axis of storm development, heavy rain is likely the primary threat (reference WPC ERO). Near-saturated thermodynamic profiles coupled with adequate low-level SRH suggests a brief tornado and locally damaging winds will remain possible through 12Z. ...Northern Rockies... A fairly prolific number of severe gusts have been measured this evening with a swath of high-based convection across southeast ID into central MT. With limited downstream instability, this activity should diminish after sunset. Until that time, sporadic severe gusts will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC MD 762

3 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0762 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0762 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...parts of south-central GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102347Z - 110145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms, including a few more organized supercells, may pose a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two for a few hours this evening. A greater severe risk requiring WW issuance is not anticipated, though trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed a cluster of somewhat better organized convection has evolved near a partially modified stationary front over parts of south-central GA. Downstream of the broad upper low over the northern Gulf, weak ascent and inland moisture advection will likely continue to support strong to severe storms in this zone this evening. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F, are supporting around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst 30+ kt of mid-level flow from the KJGX VAD. With backed low-level winds long the boundary, shear is favorable for storm organization into clusters and supercell structures. Damaging winds are the most likely threat given relatively saturated low-levels and modest mid-level lapse rates. However, hail will be possible with the deeper storms. A tornado or two may also occur with enhanced SRH and backed-low level flow, especially near and along the frontal zone. While some storm organization is likely for a few hours this evening, the lack of broader ascent/destabilization suggests the threat will be confined both temporarily and spatial near the front. A WW is not currently anticipated, though conditions will continue to be monitored for changes. ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31908456 32518405 32958281 32778229 32418209 32048229 31868267 31728339 31648407 31908456 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC MD 761

3 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0761 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAINS OF IDAHO...AND SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0761 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...The Snake River Plains of Idaho...and southwestern and central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102026Z - 102230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts, possibly exceeding 70 mph, will be possible within the next 1-2 hours across portions of the Snake River Plain and Rocky Mountains, into central MT. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have climbed into the low 80s across MT this afternoon under the northern fringe of an upper-level ridge. The latest visible satellite and radar imagery shows a small cluster of moist convection becoming more widespread over the Rocky Mountains near the MT/ID border via orographic ascent within a low to mid-level theta-e ridge axis. Additional development was also noted near the Snake River Plain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and a well mixed boundary layer are in place here, yielding DCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. Evaporative cooling under high cloud bases in this environment will support isolated severe wind gusts through late this afternoon as thunderstorms become more numerous across the region. However, it's currently unclear how widespread the severe potential will be. A weather watch remains possible, but does not appear likely at this time given the isolated threat. The potential for severe wind gusts will shift northeastward later this evening into more of central MT, with storm interactions/mergers possible. ..Barnes/Mosier.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... LAT...LON 42881450 43421440 44931425 45051423 45531417 46021409 46391395 46631361 46781333 46871310 46921292 47101251 47561102 47441019 47160970 46750944 46480951 46100984 45741046 45431095 44771125 44261131 43441155 42711203 42471251 42341298 42401371 42581432 42881450 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

SPC MD 759

3 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0759 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR INTERIOR FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0759 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025 Areas affected...interior Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101810Z - 102045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms will likely spread north from central into northern Florida. Sporadic hail and locally strong downbursts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Heating of a moist air mass has led to moderate instability, with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms that initiated close to the sea breeze have rapidly moves northward with primary cluster east of Tampa. Although shear is not very strong, favorable time of day along with moderately steep midlevel lapse rates should continue to support strong updrafts, and localized hail and severe gusts may occur. This activity may reach northern FL later this afternoon, where outflow has temporarily stabilized the air mass. In addition, a large area of storms is currently located about 50 miles west of Tampa, and continues to push east with indications of large-scale outflow, which may affect the west coast with wind later today. ..Jewell.. 05/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27438112 26828164 26768224 27298265 27928287 28568271 28968263 29288252 29528227 29638191 29598153 29408134 29198125 28618116 27728108 27438112 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more