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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated throughout the day as the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast progresses eastward and a lead shortwave trough pivots through OR/northern CA into the northern Rockies. Strong heating will help destabilize the airmass downstream from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough, coupled with orographic lift, will help initiate storms across the high terrain during the afternoon within this destabilized airmass. Environmental conditions suggest some supercells are possible with this initial development, with damaging gusts and isolated hail as the primary risk. A low-probability corridor of tornado potential exists across southeast ID. The storms should encounter an increasingly mixed environment with eastern/northeastern extent into central MT, with strong gusts becoming the primary severe hazard as storms trend towards more outflow-dominant linear structures. ...Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery and surface observations continue to show the vertically stacked low over the Lower MS Valley, with broad swath of southwesterly flow extending south and east of this low from the central Gulf into FL. Surface features have become increasingly diffuse across the Southeast and FL over the past two days given the persistence of this low and associated precipitation, but recent surface analysis shows a weak and wavy stationary boundary extending from the low over the ArkLaMiss southeastward to the AL/FL Panhandle border before arcing back northeastward across southern GA. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing and the general expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to persist across much of the region throughout the day. Widespread cloudiness should limit heating, but ample low-level moisture will still support modest buoyancy. Shear will gradually increase as the low to mid-level flow strengthens this afternoon and evening, which could lead to some transient storm organization, but in general convection is expected to be disorganized, outflow-dominated multicells. Even so, isolated damaging gusts are possible. Some low-probability tornado potential exists as well, particularly along the stationary boundary across southern GA around 00Z. Farther northwest across AL/MS and into eastern AR, the airmass is forecast to destabilize this afternoon as heating occurs beneath cool temperatures aloft. Even with the cooler temperature aloft, overall buoyancy will be modest given the somewhat cool low to mid-level thermodynamic profile. Even so, a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile with moderate deep-layer speed shear could support brief updraft organization. As a result, a few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 05/11/2025 Read more

MD 0763 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FL PANHANDLE/NORTH FL INTO SOUTHEAST AL...SOUTH GA...AND SOUTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0763 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Areas affected...FL Panhandle/north FL into southeast AL...south GA...and southern SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111259Z - 111500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for strong to locally severe storms may increase through the morning. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing this morning from southeast GA into the FL Panhandle. Other than an MCS now moving off the Carolina coast, convection has largely been disorganized thus far. However, modest diurnal heating/destabilization could lead to increasingly vigorous storms with time this morning. Some increase in deep-layer flow/shear is also possible as a vorticity maximum rotates around a midlevel low centered over LA. Locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail could accompany the stronger storms through the morning. Effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 could also support at least transient supercell structures, with localized tornado potential, especially from the FL Panhandle into adjacent parts of southeast AL and south GA. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31788641 31978448 32518218 32698132 32868047 32128049 31308136 30688165 30358196 30138240 29848374 29468505 29728594 29908620 30148676 30608672 31078661 31788641 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains fom mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... The leading portion of an eastward-transitioning upper-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin later today and tonight, with preceding height falls and a regionally strengthening 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. These trends in conjunction with orographic influences/differential heating will lead to another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. Similar to Saturday, severe-caliber wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms develop in association with deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastward extent from southeast Idaho to central/eastern Montana. Corridors of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the Oregon/Washington/Idaho border vicinity into central Montana, and separately over southeast Idaho into Yellowstone. ...Southeast States... A persistent, slow-moving, and essentially vertically stacked low will persist, centered over the ArkLaMiss vicinity, with a preceding belt of moderately strong mid-level winds extending over the northeast Gulf to the coastal Southeast. This will overlie a moderately moist warm sector to the east of the surface cyclone and along/south of the eastward-extending stationary front (or slow-moving warm front). Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing regionally this morning, including semi-extensively over the northeast Gulf. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within this corridor, but especially towards the coast and near the warm front. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode at times. Regardless, isolated damaging wind and tornado potential is apparent. While the severe risk does not appear as semi-focused as yesterday, portions of far northern Florida to southern/southeast Georgia in vicinity of the stationary/warm front will be reevaluated for a potential Slight Risk upgrade. Farther west in Alabama and Mississippi, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, mainly from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains fom mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... The leading portion of an eastward-transitioning upper-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin later today and tonight, with preceding height falls and a regionally strengthening 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. These trends in conjunction with orographic influences/differential heating will lead to another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. Similar to Saturday, severe-caliber wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms develop in association with deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastward extent from southeast Idaho to central/eastern Montana. Corridors of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the Oregon/Washington/Idaho border vicinity into central Montana, and separately over southeast Idaho into Yellowstone. ...Southeast States... A persistent, slow-moving, and essentially vertically stacked low will persist, centered over the ArkLaMiss vicinity, with a preceding belt of moderately strong mid-level winds extending over the northeast Gulf to the coastal Southeast. This will overlie a moderately moist warm sector to the east of the surface cyclone and along/south of the eastward-extending stationary front (or slow-moving warm front). Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing regionally this morning, including semi-extensively over the northeast Gulf. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within this corridor, but especially towards the coast and near the warm front. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode at times. Regardless, isolated damaging wind and tornado potential is apparent. While the severe risk does not appear as semi-focused as yesterday, portions of far northern Florida to southern/southeast Georgia in vicinity of the stationary/warm front will be reevaluated for a potential Slight Risk upgrade. Farther west in Alabama and Mississippi, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, mainly from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains fom mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... The leading portion of an eastward-transitioning upper-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin later today and tonight, with preceding height falls and a regionally strengthening 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. These trends in conjunction with orographic influences/differential heating will lead to another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. Similar to Saturday, severe-caliber wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms develop in association with deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastward extent from southeast Idaho to central/eastern Montana. Corridors of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the Oregon/Washington/Idaho border vicinity into central Montana, and separately over southeast Idaho into Yellowstone. ...Southeast States... A persistent, slow-moving, and essentially vertically stacked low will persist, centered over the ArkLaMiss vicinity, with a preceding belt of moderately strong mid-level winds extending over the northeast Gulf to the coastal Southeast. This will overlie a moderately moist warm sector to the east of the surface cyclone and along/south of the eastward-extending stationary front (or slow-moving warm front). Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing regionally this morning, including semi-extensively over the northeast Gulf. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within this corridor, but especially towards the coast and near the warm front. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode at times. Regardless, isolated damaging wind and tornado potential is apparent. While the severe risk does not appear as semi-focused as yesterday, portions of far northern Florida to southern/southeast Georgia in vicinity of the stationary/warm front will be reevaluated for a potential Slight Risk upgrade. Farther west in Alabama and Mississippi, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, mainly from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains fom mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... The leading portion of an eastward-transitioning upper-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin later today and tonight, with preceding height falls and a regionally strengthening 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. These trends in conjunction with orographic influences/differential heating will lead to another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. Similar to Saturday, severe-caliber wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms develop in association with deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastward extent from southeast Idaho to central/eastern Montana. Corridors of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the Oregon/Washington/Idaho border vicinity into central Montana, and separately over southeast Idaho into Yellowstone. ...Southeast States... A persistent, slow-moving, and essentially vertically stacked low will persist, centered over the ArkLaMiss vicinity, with a preceding belt of moderately strong mid-level winds extending over the northeast Gulf to the coastal Southeast. This will overlie a moderately moist warm sector to the east of the surface cyclone and along/south of the eastward-extending stationary front (or slow-moving warm front). Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing regionally this morning, including semi-extensively over the northeast Gulf. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within this corridor, but especially towards the coast and near the warm front. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode at times. Regardless, isolated damaging wind and tornado potential is apparent. While the severe risk does not appear as semi-focused as yesterday, portions of far northern Florida to southern/southeast Georgia in vicinity of the stationary/warm front will be reevaluated for a potential Slight Risk upgrade. Farther west in Alabama and Mississippi, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, mainly from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains fom mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... The leading portion of an eastward-transitioning upper-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin later today and tonight, with preceding height falls and a regionally strengthening 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. These trends in conjunction with orographic influences/differential heating will lead to another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. Similar to Saturday, severe-caliber wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms develop in association with deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastward extent from southeast Idaho to central/eastern Montana. Corridors of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the Oregon/Washington/Idaho border vicinity into central Montana, and separately over southeast Idaho into Yellowstone. ...Southeast States... A persistent, slow-moving, and essentially vertically stacked low will persist, centered over the ArkLaMiss vicinity, with a preceding belt of moderately strong mid-level winds extending over the northeast Gulf to the coastal Southeast. This will overlie a moderately moist warm sector to the east of the surface cyclone and along/south of the eastward-extending stationary front (or slow-moving warm front). Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing regionally this morning, including semi-extensively over the northeast Gulf. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within this corridor, but especially towards the coast and near the warm front. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode at times. Regardless, isolated damaging wind and tornado potential is apparent. While the severe risk does not appear as semi-focused as yesterday, portions of far northern Florida to southern/southeast Georgia in vicinity of the stationary/warm front will be reevaluated for a potential Slight Risk upgrade. Farther west in Alabama and Mississippi, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, mainly from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MONTANA HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern Rockies to Montana High Plains fom mid-afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and northeast Great Basin... The leading portion of an eastward-transitioning upper-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin later today and tonight, with preceding height falls and a regionally strengthening 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet. These trends in conjunction with orographic influences/differential heating will lead to another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. Similar to Saturday, severe-caliber wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms develop in association with deeply mixed boundary layers, especially with eastward extent from southeast Idaho to central/eastern Montana. Corridors of modest buoyancy, coupled with moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly speed shear, could yield a few high-based supercell structures producing small to marginally severe hail. This should be focused from the Oregon/Washington/Idaho border vicinity into central Montana, and separately over southeast Idaho into Yellowstone. ...Southeast States... A persistent, slow-moving, and essentially vertically stacked low will persist, centered over the ArkLaMiss vicinity, with a preceding belt of moderately strong mid-level winds extending over the northeast Gulf to the coastal Southeast. This will overlie a moderately moist warm sector to the east of the surface cyclone and along/south of the eastward-extending stationary front (or slow-moving warm front). Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing regionally this morning, including semi-extensively over the northeast Gulf. A 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to sustain adequately enlarged low-level hodographs within this corridor, but especially towards the coast and near the warm front. But convection is expected to be within a messy, outflow-dominated mode at times. Regardless, isolated damaging wind and tornado potential is apparent. While the severe risk does not appear as semi-focused as yesterday, portions of far northern Florida to southern/southeast Georgia in vicinity of the stationary/warm front will be reevaluated for a potential Slight Risk upgrade. Farther west in Alabama and Mississippi, despite somewhat cooler mid-level temperatures closer to the upper cyclone, lapse rates still appear modest. But deep-layer speed shear will be moderately favorable amid a nearly unidirectional southeasterly wind profile. A few cells may briefly produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts, and possibly some funnel/brief tornado potential, mainly from late afternoon through early/mid-evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/11/2025 Read more