6 months 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 23:56:48 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 21:29:26 GMT
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 092356
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
600 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023
...LIDIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 110.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 110.6 West. Lidia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward motion is expected this evening and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach Las Islas
Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight and Tuesday, and Lidia
is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas Marias
and the coast of west-central Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml
RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
on Tuesday, with winds expected to first reach tropical
storm strength by Tuesday morning, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
...LIDIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY...
As of 6:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 9
the center of Lidia was located near 18.2, -110.6
with movement ENE at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 985 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 23:56:21 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 21:23:01 GMT
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092318
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 9 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Storm Max, located inland near the southern coast of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023
955
WTPZ41 KNHC 092037
TCDEP1
Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023
Max is estimated to have made landfall around 1800 UTC just to the
west of Puerto Vicente Guerrero in the Mexican Provence of Guerrero.
Data received from the a Mexican surface observing site at that
location just after the intermediate advisory suggested the
tropical storm might have been a little stronger than initially
assessed, reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds with a
minimum pressure of 994 mb. Thus, the 18 UTC working best track
intensity was adjusted to 55 kt with a 991 mb pressure. Since that
time, the satellite structure has begun to degrade, likely as the
surface circulation begins to be disrupted by the high rugged
terrain of south-central Mexico. Thus, some weakening is assumed
since that time with the current intensity assessed at 50 kt.
Further rapid weakening is anticipated as the small tropical cyclone
moves further inland, and by this time tomorrow Max is likely to be
little more than a remnant mid-level circulation moving poleward
with enhanced moisture over central Mexico.
The initial motion still appears to be north-northeast at 030/5 kt.
This motion should continue until Max dissipates over the higher
terrain of Mexico. The track guidance following the low-level center
quickly lose the system beyond 12 h, and the updated track forecast
is little changed from the prior one. Even as Max dissipates, its
mid-level remains and larger moisture plume will likely result in
significant upslope rainfall, leading to flash flooding and
mudslides pushing into inland Mexico.
Key Messages:
1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions
through this evening to portions of the southern coast of Mexico
where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect.
2. Heavy rains from Max will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 17.6N 101.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 092037
TCDEP5
Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023
Satellite images indicate that Lidia is becoming better organized.
Deep convection is consolidating near the center and it appears that
an inner core is forming. In addition, a large curved band has
developed on the south and east sides of the circulation. The Air
Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Lidia earlier this afternoon
and found that the minimum pressure was quite low, around 985 mb. A
combination of the aircraft flight-level wind and SFMR data support
increasing the wind speed to 60 kt, and is possible that this is
conservative. The aircraft data and recent satellite images
suggest that the center has reformed to the south of the previous
positions.
Since the center of Lidia appears to have reformed, the initial
motion of 065/7 kt is uncertain. Water vapor images show a mid- to
upper-level trough approaching Lidia, and that feature should steer
the storm relatively quickly to the east-northeast toward
west-central Mexico. The main change for this forecast cycle is
associated with Lidia's reformation, which is roughly 1 degree south
of the previous estimates. Based on the initial position
adjustment, the new track forecast lies to the south of the previous
prediction. This forecast is close to the consensus aids and
roughly halfway between the fast GFS solution and the much slower
ECMWF run. Based on the new forecast, Lidia is expected to reach
the coast of Mexico Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Since Lidia appears to be developing an inner core while moving into
conducive environmental conditions, significant strengthening is
forecast. The storm is expected to move over SSTs near 30 C and
into a favorable upper-level wind pattern. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement
with the hurricane regional models. Rapid weakening is forecast once
Lidia moves inland due to the rugged terrain in west-central Mexico.
Key Messages:
1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen before it reaches west-central
Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning Tuesday.
2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast
of west-central Mexico.
4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 18.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 092037
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 092036
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 38(40) 32(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN BLAS 34 1 12(13) 59(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
SAN BLAS 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
P VALLARTA 34 X 9( 9) 58(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MANZANILLO 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 24 7(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 092036
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 101.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 50SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 101.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 101.2W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 101.0W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 10/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023
000
WTPZ25 KNHC 092036
TCMEP5
TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023
2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 110.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 23:58:23 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 21:29:31 GMT
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 082358
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023
...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 101.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Punta San Telmo
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h), and a gradual turn northward and then north-northeastward
is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the
depression is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico within
the warning area by late Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. Rapid
weakening is expected after the system moves inland on Tuesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches
through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the
coastal sections of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains
will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible
mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Monday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TOMORROW...
As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 8
the center of Sixteen-E was located near 16.1, -101.9
with movement NNW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 082355
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023
...LIDIA MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 112.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Mazatlan
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 112.7 West. Lidia is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach
the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to
be a hurricane before it approaches the coast of west-central
Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml
RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, western portions of the
state of Nayarit and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
near the coast.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
areas beginning Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
...LIDIA MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...
As of 6:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 8
the center of Lidia was located near 17.9, -112.7
with movement N at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 990 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 23:55:36 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 21:22:57 GMT
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082327
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 8 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Depression Sixteen-E, located located less than 200 miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 082039
TCDEP1
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023
Since the prior advisory, 1-minute visible images from the GOES-18
mesosector have been quite helpful in showing that the system we
have been monitoring just south of Zihuatanejo has developed a
well-defined circulation located a bit farther northwest of previous
estimations. This circulation was farther supported by a 1702 UTC
GMI pass which showed tightly curved bands wrapping most of the way
around this apparent center on the 37 GHz channel. Thus, the system
now can be considered a tropical depression, and the initial
intensity is 30 kt for this advisory, which is in between the
T1.5/25-kt estimates from TAFB and SAB versus 35-kt from the D-PRINT
estimate from UW-CIMSS.
Now that the center has become well-defined, it has formed farther
northwest than earlier estimated. This should not be considered an
acceleration in the short-term motion though, which still appears to
be slowly off to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. This slow motion
is expected to continue with a gradual turn northward and then
north-northeastward as the system is steered around mid-level
ridging located east of it over the Caribbean Sea in addition to the
outer circulation of Tropical Storm Lidia to its west. Given the
farther northwestward initial position, the timing for landfall has
moved up a bit to between 24-36 h, by tomorrow evening. There
continues to be some spread in this landfall timing, with the GFS
remaining on the faster end versus the slower CMC and ECMWF
solutions. The latest NHC track forecast more or less splits the
difference, which is close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids,
though most of the guidance now agrees the system should be inland
after 36 hours.
Intensification is still forecast up until the system moves inland
over Mexico. With landfall now between 24-36 h, there might not be
quite as much time for intensification as previously expected. With
that said, both the raw model output from the ECMWF and CMC suggest
significant intensification over the next 24 hours before the
depression makes landfall, and out of respect of these models, a
peak intensity of 45 kt continues to be shown just before landfall.
This is on the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. The
system should quickly weaken after moving inland, ultimately
dissipating over the higher rugged terrain of south-central Mexico
by 48 hours. However, the significant up-slope flow that will result
is anticipated to continue producing very heavy rainfall into
Tuesday over coastal and inland Mexico as the cyclone and its
remnants move farther inland.
Key Messages:
1. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect for a portion of the coast of southern
Mexico.
2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and coastal sections of
western Oaxaca.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 15.9N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.2N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 18.0N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster
6 months 1 week ago
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 082039
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023
2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
L CARDENAS 34 1 20(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 32(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ACAPULCO 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 6 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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