National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 190 WTPZ31 KNHC 030833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 AM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 111.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 111.0 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Papin

...FLOSSIE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Jul 03 the center of Flossie was located near 20.1, -111.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 485 WTPZ21 KNHC 030832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030511
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 02:42:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 03:21:53 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 02:42:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 02:42:52 GMT

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030241 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie is rapidly weakening, with deep convection now confined to the western and southwestern quadrants of the circulation and the low-level center almost fully exposed. This trend is supported by recent Dvorak classifications, with current intensity estimates from TAFB at 4.5/77 kt and SAB at 4.0/65 kt. Objective satellite intensity estimates range between 56 and 72 kt. A blend of these data supports lowering the initial intensity to 65 kt. The initial motion is 305/7 kt. Flossie is moving along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge, with a weakness in the ridge induced by a mid- to upper-level trough over the Baja California region. A continued northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as the system decouples vertically. The latest forecast track remains very close to the previous advisory and is well-supported by the consensus aids. Rapid weakening is expected to continue as Flossie moves over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable and drier environment. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by late Thursday, or within the next 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The system is expected to dissipate by late Saturday, around 72 hours from now. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.8N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 527 FOPZ11 KNHC 030240 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 64 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/BLAKE

Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 018 WTPZ31 KNHC 030240 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 110.2W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 110.2 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema/Blake

...FLOSSIE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 8:00 PM MST Wed Jul 02 the center of Flossie was located near 19.8, -110.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 184 WTPZ21 KNHC 030239 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0300 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/BLAKE

469
ABPZ20 KNHC 022350
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a couple hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over
the weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 21:21:48 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:36:07 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 739 FOPZ11 KNHC 022032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 110W 64 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ISLA SOCORRO 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 031 WTPZ41 KNHC 022033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 Flossie is feeling the effects of decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the associated convection waning and becoming asymmetric. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates indicate weakening, and recent objective satellite estimates are in the 80-90 kt range. Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 85 kt. The initial wind radii have been revised based on a 1638Z ASCAT overpass. The initial motion is 305/8 kt. Flossie is moving toward a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over California and the adjacent Pacific. A general northwestward motion should continue for the next couple of days. After that, Flossie should lose vertical depth as it weakens, with the remnant low being steered more toward the west-northwest by the mean low-level flow. The new forecast track is almost identical to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast to continue as Flossie moves over cooler water and into a drier air mass. The cyclone is predicted to become post-tropical in about 36 h as it stops producing convection, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low thereafter. The system is forecast to dissipate completely by 96 h, and this could happen earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 406 WTPZ31 KNHC 022032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Wed Jul 02 2025 ...FLOSSIE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 109.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Flossie was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 109.8 West. Flossie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is expected during the next few days, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...FLOSSIE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 02 the center of Flossie was located near 19.5, -109.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 975 WTPZ21 KNHC 022031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

851
ABPZ20 KNHC 021714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin, a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles
offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend or early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly