National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southwest of
the Hawaiian Islands and recently-formed Tropical Storm Gil,
located well south-southwest of the southern Baja California
peninsula.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii,
continue to persist. Although the system lacks a well-defined
low-level center at this time, some additional development is
possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could still form
during the next day or so. After that time, environmental conditions
are expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of
southwestern Mexico in the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 08:47:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 09:26:57 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 08:47:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 08:47:15 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 151 FOPZ12 KNHC 310844 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 10N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 1 72(73) 22(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 120W 50 X 27(27) 39(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 15N 120W 64 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 13(13) 26(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 60(61) 1(62) X(62) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) X(29) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 30 2025 795 WTPZ42 KNHC 310845 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 30 2025 Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance NHC has been tracking for the past several days has become much better organized during the past 12 hours. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and 1.5/25 kt from SAB. A 0457 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed a well-defined circulation with peak winds near 35 kt. Since that time, the convective organization has continued to improve significantly, with a central convective area containing cloud tops that are becoming colder and more circular on infrared imagery, along with developing banding features. The system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Gil based on the above data, and the initial intensity estimate is 40 kt to reflect the improved structure since the time of the ASCAT pass. Gil is moving westward, or 275/13 kt. The track forecast is fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge to the north of Gil will steer the cyclone west-northwestward for the next 3 to 4 days. As Gil weakens and becomes shallow, it should bend more to the west by day 4. The track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is close to the TVCE consensus. Gil is currently located in a moist environment with warm sea-surface temperatures and low to moderate vertical wind shear, and the cyclone is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane over the next 36 h. The shear is forecast to decrease further over the next 24 h while upper-level divergence increases. Given the current impressive outflow and relatively fast recent development trends, it is possible Gil could strengthen a bit more than forecast over the next day or two. However, Gil is forecast to reach colder water and more stable conditions by hour 48 as it gains latitude, which should lead to weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Gil is forecast to lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 12.7N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 13.4N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.5N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 15.7N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 17.1N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 18.6N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 20.1N 132.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 21.7N 138.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 22.3N 144.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 30 2025 551 WTPZ32 KNHC 310844 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 30 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM GIL FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 115.1W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 115.1 West. Gil is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest with some acceleration is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gil is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...TROPICAL STORM GIL FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 11:00 PM HST Wed Jul 30 the center of Gil was located near 12.7, -115.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 310843 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 0900 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 115.1W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 50SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 115.1W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.4N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 119.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.7N 122.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.1N 125.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 129.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 132.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 21.7N 138.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 22.3N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

594
ABPZ20 KNHC 310513
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southwest of
the Hawaiian Islands.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii,
continue to persist. Although the system lacks a well-defined
low-level center at this time, some additional development is
possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could still form
during the next day or so. After that time, environmental conditions
are expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continue to become better organized.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development,
and if current trends persist, a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form on Thursday. The system is forecast to
move west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the open waters of the
eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of
southwestern Mexico in the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well
south-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and has issued the last
advisory on the remnants of Keli, located in the central
Pacific basin well south of the Hawaiian Islands.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped near a broad
area of low pressure located about 1,000 miles southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands. Although the system lacks a well-defined low-level
center at this time, some additional development is possible, and a
short-lived tropical depression could still form during the next day
or so. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

West-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico have become a little better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward around 15
mph, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south of the
Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well south of the Hawaiian Islands.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located around 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
remain limited. However, if persistent showers and thunderstorms
re-develop during the next day or so, a short-lived tropical
depression could still form. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico
has become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system and a tropical depression could develop over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south of the
Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located around 1150 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
remain limited. However, if persistent showers and thunderstorms
re-develop during the next day or so, a short-lived tropical
depression could still form during the next day or two. After that
time, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico
has become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system and a tropical depression could develop over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

058
ABPZ20 KNHC 300515
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south of the
Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located around 1150 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
remain limited and have changed little since this morning. However,
if persistent showers and thunderstorms re-develop during the next
day or so, a short-lived tropical depression could still form. The
system will enter the Central Pacific basin shortly.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system and a tropical depression could develop over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

388
ABPZ20 KNHC 292332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located around 1250 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
have decreased since earlier today. However, if persistent showers
and thunderstorms re-develop during the next day or so, a
short-lived tropical depression is likely to form. The system will
enter the Central Pacific basin tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A trough of low pressure located about 500 miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system and a tropical depression could develop over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. If the thunderstorms
persist or increase, this system will likely become a tropical
depression or tropical storm while it moves westward into the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about
500 miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week or over the weekend.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

799
ABPZ20 KNHC 291138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
A well-defined area of low pressure located around 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce a
limited amount of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some development of this
system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
during the next day or two as it moves generally westward around 10
mph. This system is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about
500 miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week or over the weekend
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Keli are issued under WMO
header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCPCP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Keli are issued under WMO
header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCMCP2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

409
ABPZ20 KNHC 290526
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
The area of low pressure located around 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands has changed little since earlier today.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm could form during the next day or two as it moves
generally westward around 10 mph and enters the Central Pacific
basin around midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the central East
Pacific, several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula, late this week. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system as it
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Keli are issued under WMO
header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCPCP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Keli are issued under WMO
header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCMCP2.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located
in the central Pacific basin well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
The area of low pressure located around 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands has changed little since earlier today.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next day or two as it moves generally westward around 10
mph and enters the Central Pacific basin around midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Keli are issued under WMO
header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCPCP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Keli are issued under WMO
header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCMCP2.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

960
ABPZ20 KNHC 281739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Depression Two-C also located
in the central Pacific basin well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1600 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
have decreased in coverage this morning. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or two. The system is forecast to
move generally westward around 10 mph and enter the Central Pacific
basin around midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico are
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of
this week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10
to 15 mph remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two-C are issued under WMO
header WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCPCP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two-C are issued
under WMO header WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header MIATCMCP2.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands.

Eastern portion of the Central Pacific (CP91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small low
pressure area located about 950 miles southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is showing signs of organization and have persisted
overnight. If current trends continue, a tropical depression or
storm is likely to develop later this morning or this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1650 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
have become a little better organized overnight. Additional
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or two as it moves generally
westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to
later part of this week as it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown