5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 200241
TCDEP2
Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023
The eye of Norma is no longer evident on conventional geostationary
satellite imagery, but could still be seen on a recent SSMI/S
microwave pass. Deep convection remains very strong near the
estimated center with some cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. A few
convective banding features are evident over the northern portion
of the circulation, and upper-level outflow is still strong over
most sectors of the system. The current intensity is set at 105 kt
for this advisory, which is a blend of various subjective and
objective satellite estimates. This is in best agreement with a
recent AI-based objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS.
For the next couple of days, Norma's environment will be
characterized by increasing south-southwesterly vertical wind
shear, associated with a broad upper-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula, along with a drier mid-level air mass. These
factors should cause gradual weakening while the system nears
southern Baja California Sur, but it is likely that Norma will still
be a hurricane when it moves near or over that area. The official
intensity forecast is on the higher side of the model guidance
during the early part of the forecast period, but close to the
corrected model consensus, HCCA at 48 hours and beyond.
Although the center fixes are a little more uncertain than earlier
today, the initial motion does not appear to have changed much and
is around 350/6 kt. Over the next few days, Norma is expected to
move between a mid-level high to its east and a trough to the
northwest and north. The track guidance models, especially the
more reliable ones, have come into a little better agreement, and
the NHC forecast track is close to the simple dynamical model
consensus. This is also close to the previous official forecast.
Key Messages:
1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the far southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula, where Norma is expected to bring
hurricane conditions on Saturday when it passes near or over the
area.
2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern
portions of California Baja Sur on late Friday, continuing through
Sunday This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along
with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 18.2N 108.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 200240
PWSEP2
HURRICANE NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 23(27) 52(79) 9(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 3( 3) 30(33) 13(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 20(23) 52(75) 13(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 2( 2) 26(28) 18(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
LA PAZ 34 1 7( 8) 24(32) 17(49) 8(57) X(57) X(57)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12)
CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 5 13(18) 5(23) 2(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 3 5( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15)
P VALLARTA 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 110W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 65 25(90) 1(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
20N 110W 50 5 29(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
20N 110W 64 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 12 11(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200240
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023
...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 108.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to La Paz
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
* Las Islas Marias
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 108.1 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
north-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days. A slower northward to northeastward motion is
forecast later this weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is
forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on
Friday night and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next
few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves
near the southern portion of Baja California.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in
Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning late Friday night. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday night, and in the
watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday.
RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far
southern portion of Baja California Sur. These rains will likely
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in
areas of higher terrain.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas
of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread
northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 19
the center of Norma was located near 18.2, -108.1
with movement N at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 948 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 200239
TCMEP2
HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.0W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 108.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200014
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system meanders or drifts
generally northward over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200014
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system meanders or drifts
generally northward over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Oct 2023 02:53:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Oct 2023 03:28:52 GMT
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 190252
PWSEP2
HURRICANE NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 43(72) 2(74) 1(75)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 2(33) 1(34)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 19(25) 43(68) 3(71) 1(72)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 3(30) 1(31)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 31(40) 8(48) 2(50)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 9(24) 4(28) 3(31) 1(32)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 3(25)
SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 2(17) 1(18)
P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10)
15N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 110W 34 2 19(21) 44(65) 17(82) 3(85) X(85) 1(86)
20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 24(43) 3(46) 1(47) X(47)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 10(12) 18(30) 8(38) 3(41) 1(42) X(42)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190252
TCDEP2
Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023
Norma's rapid intensification continues. Microwave imagery from late
this afternoon indicated that a very well-defined low- to mid-level
eye has formed with a surrounding ring of shallow to moderate
convection associated with rapid intensification. While that eye is
not yet visible in conventional satellite imagery, subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 77 kt and 90
kt, respectively, while recent objective evaluations from UW-CIMSS
range from about 75 kt to 85 kt. Based on the whole of the data,
the intensity for Norma has been raised to 80 kt.
For the next 24 to 36 hours, the forecast for Norma appears to be
relatively straightforward. Continued rapid strengthening appears
likely tonight based on Norma's convective structure and the
conducive surrounding environment. The hurricane should continue
moving generally northward during that time, steered by a weak
mid-level ridge to the east of Norma and an upper-level trough to
its northwest. Short-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall
replacement cycles will become possible starting tonight, but
confidence in the forecast is reasonably high through 36 h.
After that time, the uncertainty grows considerably. Southwesterly
upper-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper-level
trough will continue, but the mid- to lower-level steering will
likely become light or even switch to northerly. The resulting
increase in shear should cause Norma to weaken, but the rate of that
weakening remains in doubt. As long as the hurricane retains its
vertical depth, upper-level flow should keep it moving northward.
However, once Norma weakens to the point that its steering is
dominated by low- to mid-level flow, its forward speed should slow
down considerably. It is possible, therefore, that Norma will stall
just south of Baja California peninsula, a solution favored by the
deterministic ECMWF and a number of its ensemble members. However,
the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF), which should
resolve the structure of Norma better than a global model, all
indicate that the hurricane will retain its depth long enough to
reach the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track and intensity
forecasts favor the regional models, blending their latest consensus
with the previous forecast to try to maintain continuity. The
updated official track forecast is slightly faster than the previous
one, but is generally similar despite the high uncertainty.
Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required for portions
of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, and interests there
should continue to monitor updates on Norma, especially since
larger-than-normal changes to the forecast are possible due to the
high uncertainty in this case.
Key Messages:
1. Norma is forecast to continue rapidly strengthening tonight
while it passes well offshore of southwestern Mexico.
2. There is a greater than normal uncertainty in the track and
intensity forecasts for Norma later this week and this weekend when
it is expected to approach the Baja California peninsula and
western Mexico. Regardless of Norma's exact track or intensity,
there is an increasing threat of wind and rainfall impacts to
southern portions of Baja California Sur by Saturday, and watches
could be required there later tonight or on Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190251
TCMEP2
HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 190251
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023
...NORMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 108.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Norma. Watches could be required for portions of the area tonight
or on Thursday.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated
for the next couple of days. A slower motion is forecast is expected
by the weekend. On the forecast track, Norma could approach the
southern portion of Baja California on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight.
Slight weakening is forecast to begin late this week or over the
weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml
SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of
western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
...NORMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 18
the center of Norma was located near 16.4, -108.0
with movement N at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 975 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182327
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on strengthening
Hurricane Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a few disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system during the next couple
of days is expected to be slow to occur. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for development
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week. The disturbance is forecast to meander
for the next several days and then drift northward or northwestward
starting on Sunday or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 02:40:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 02:40:15 GMT
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 02:40:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Oct 2023 03:22:41 GMT
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 180239
TCDEP2
Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023
Norma is becoming better organized on satellite imagery. There is
a developing Central Dense Overcast with very cold cloud tops, and
some convective banding is evident. Upper-level outflow is fairly
well defined over the western semicircle of the circulation. The
current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with the
latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
Based on recent center fixes, the motion is now northwestward, or
around 305/7 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the east of Norma
should maintain a slow northwestward to north-northwestward track
for the next 48 to 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, there is
significant uncertainty in the track, since the model guidance at 3
to 5 days is not in very good agreement. The ECMWF and UKMET show a
weakening cyclone moving along the western side of the guidance
envelope whereas the GFS show a strong system moving much more to
the northeast. The 4- and 5-day official forecast positions
are close to the simple and corrected model consensus predictions.
However there is low confidence in this forecast, given the spread
in the model tracks.
For the next couple of days, the storm should be in an atmospheric
and oceanic environment that will be quite conducive for
strengthening. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices and
the DTOPS probabilities for RI suggest a high likelihood for
significant strengthening during the next 48 hours or so. This is
also reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which explicitly
shows RI in the earlier part of the period. In 3 to 5 days, higher
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to
inhibit strengthening. The official forecast is near or above the
intensity model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023
Norma is becoming better organized on satellite imagery. There is
a developing Central Dense Overcast with very cold cloud tops, and
some convective banding is evident. Upper-level outflow is fairly
well defined over the western semicircle of the circulation. The
current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with the
latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
Based on recent center fixes, the motion is now northwestward, or
around 305/7 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the east of Norma
should maintain a slow northwestward to north-northwestward track
for the next 48 to 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, there is
significant uncertainty in the track, since the model guidance at 3
to 5 days is not in very good agreement. The ECMWF and UKMET show a
weakening cyclone moving along the western side of the guidance
envelope whereas the GFS show a strong system moving much more to
the northeast. The 4- and 5-day official forecast positions
are close to the simple and corrected model consensus predictions.
However there is low confidence in this forecast, given the spread
in the model tracks.
For the next couple of days, the storm should be in an atmospheric
and oceanic environment that will be quite conducive for
strengthening. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices and
the DTOPS probabilities for RI suggest a high likelihood for
significant strengthening during the next 48 hours or so. This is
also reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which explicitly
shows RI in the earlier part of the period. In 3 to 5 days, higher
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to
inhibit strengthening. The official forecast is near or above the
intensity model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NNNN
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 180237
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 38(48) 20(68)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 35(43) 22(65)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 23(44)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 11(25) 10(35)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 14(26)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 6(18)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10)
15N 105W 34 5 5(10) 4(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 27 18(45) 6(51) 3(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58)
15N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 50(72) 15(87) 3(90)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 22(55) 3(58)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) 3(35)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 15(28) 34(62) 8(70) 2(72)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 6(27) 2(29)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster
5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 180237
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023
...NORMA STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 107.8W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 107.8 West. Norma is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and
Norma is likely to become a hurricane on Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 5 months ago
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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