Hurricane Norma Forecast Discussion Number 10

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 200241 TCDEP2 Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 The eye of Norma is no longer evident on conventional geostationary satellite imagery, but could still be seen on a recent SSMI/S microwave pass. Deep convection remains very strong near the estimated center with some cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. A few convective banding features are evident over the northern portion of the circulation, and upper-level outflow is still strong over most sectors of the system. The current intensity is set at 105 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of various subjective and objective satellite estimates. This is in best agreement with a recent AI-based objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS. For the next couple of days, Norma's environment will be characterized by increasing south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, associated with a broad upper-level trough near the Baja California peninsula, along with a drier mid-level air mass. These factors should cause gradual weakening while the system nears southern Baja California Sur, but it is likely that Norma will still be a hurricane when it moves near or over that area. The official intensity forecast is on the higher side of the model guidance during the early part of the forecast period, but close to the corrected model consensus, HCCA at 48 hours and beyond. Although the center fixes are a little more uncertain than earlier today, the initial motion does not appear to have changed much and is around 350/6 kt. Over the next few days, Norma is expected to move between a mid-level high to its east and a trough to the northwest and north. The track guidance models, especially the more reliable ones, have come into a little better agreement, and the NHC forecast track is close to the simple dynamical model consensus. This is also close to the previous official forecast. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the far southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, where Norma is expected to bring hurricane conditions on Saturday when it passes near or over the area. 2. Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern portions of California Baja Sur on late Friday, continuing through Sunday This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.2N 108.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Norma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 200240 PWSEP2 HURRICANE NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 23(27) 52(79) 9(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 3( 3) 30(33) 13(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 20(23) 52(75) 13(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 2( 2) 26(28) 18(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) LA PAZ 34 1 7( 8) 24(32) 17(49) 8(57) X(57) X(57) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLAS MARIAS 34 5 13(18) 5(23) 2(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) ISLAS MARIAS 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 3 5( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) P VALLARTA 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 65 25(90) 1(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 110W 50 5 29(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 110W 64 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 12 11(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Norma Public Advisory Number 10

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 200240 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2023 ...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 108.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Los Barriles to La Paz * North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 108.1 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slower northward to northeastward motion is forecast later this weekend. On the forecast track, Norma is forecast to approach the southern portion of Baja California on Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is expected during the next few days, but Norma is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near the southern portion of Baja California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Baja California Sur by early Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias Friday and Friday night, and in the watch areas in Baja California Sur on Saturday. RAINFALL: Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with local maxima of 15 inches through Sunday across the far southern portion of Baja California Sur. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, and will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Hurricane Norma (EP2/EP172023)

5 months 1 week ago
...NORMA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 the center of Norma was located near 18.2, -108.1 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Norma Forecast Advisory Number 10

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 200239 TCMEP2 HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 108.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 1 week ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200014
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system meanders or drifts
generally northward over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 1 week ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200014
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system meanders or drifts
generally northward over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Norma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 190252 PWSEP2 HURRICANE NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 43(72) 2(74) 1(75) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 2(33) 1(34) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 19(25) 43(68) 3(71) 1(72) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 3(30) 1(31) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 31(40) 8(48) 2(50) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 9(24) 4(28) 3(31) 1(32) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 4(22) 3(25) SAN BLAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 2(17) 1(18) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 2 19(21) 44(65) 17(82) 3(85) X(85) 1(86) 20N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 24(43) 3(46) 1(47) X(47) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 10(12) 18(30) 8(38) 3(41) 1(42) X(42) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Norma Forecast Discussion Number 6

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 190252 TCDEP2 Hurricane Norma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Norma's rapid intensification continues. Microwave imagery from late this afternoon indicated that a very well-defined low- to mid-level eye has formed with a surrounding ring of shallow to moderate convection associated with rapid intensification. While that eye is not yet visible in conventional satellite imagery, subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 77 kt and 90 kt, respectively, while recent objective evaluations from UW-CIMSS range from about 75 kt to 85 kt. Based on the whole of the data, the intensity for Norma has been raised to 80 kt. For the next 24 to 36 hours, the forecast for Norma appears to be relatively straightforward. Continued rapid strengthening appears likely tonight based on Norma's convective structure and the conducive surrounding environment. The hurricane should continue moving generally northward during that time, steered by a weak mid-level ridge to the east of Norma and an upper-level trough to its northwest. Short-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles will become possible starting tonight, but confidence in the forecast is reasonably high through 36 h. After that time, the uncertainty grows considerably. Southwesterly upper-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper-level trough will continue, but the mid- to lower-level steering will likely become light or even switch to northerly. The resulting increase in shear should cause Norma to weaken, but the rate of that weakening remains in doubt. As long as the hurricane retains its vertical depth, upper-level flow should keep it moving northward. However, once Norma weakens to the point that its steering is dominated by low- to mid-level flow, its forward speed should slow down considerably. It is possible, therefore, that Norma will stall just south of Baja California peninsula, a solution favored by the deterministic ECMWF and a number of its ensemble members. However, the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF), which should resolve the structure of Norma better than a global model, all indicate that the hurricane will retain its depth long enough to reach the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track and intensity forecasts favor the regional models, blending their latest consensus with the previous forecast to try to maintain continuity. The updated official track forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, but is generally similar despite the high uncertainty. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required for portions of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, and interests there should continue to monitor updates on Norma, especially since larger-than-normal changes to the forecast are possible due to the high uncertainty in this case. Key Messages: 1. Norma is forecast to continue rapidly strengthening tonight while it passes well offshore of southwestern Mexico. 2. There is a greater than normal uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts for Norma later this week and this weekend when it is expected to approach the Baja California peninsula and western Mexico. Regardless of Norma's exact track or intensity, there is an increasing threat of wind and rainfall impacts to southern portions of Baja California Sur by Saturday, and watches could be required there later tonight or on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Norma Forecast Advisory Number 6

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 190251 TCMEP2 HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC THU OCT 19 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 108.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Norma Public Advisory Number 6

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 190251 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Norma Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2023 ...NORMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 108.0W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Norma. Watches could be required for portions of the area tonight or on Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 108.0 West. Norma is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated for the next couple of days. A slower motion is forecast is expected by the weekend. On the forecast track, Norma could approach the southern portion of Baja California on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight. Slight weakening is forecast to begin late this week or over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico and toward Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 1 week ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on strengthening
Hurricane Norma, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a few disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system during the next couple
of days is expected to be slow to occur. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become more favorable for development
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week. The disturbance is forecast to meander
for the next several days and then drift northward or northwestward
starting on Sunday or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 2

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 180239 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Norma is becoming better organized on satellite imagery. There is a developing Central Dense Overcast with very cold cloud tops, and some convective banding is evident. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the western semicircle of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Based on recent center fixes, the motion is now northwestward, or around 305/7 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the east of Norma should maintain a slow northwestward to north-northwestward track for the next 48 to 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, there is significant uncertainty in the track, since the model guidance at 3 to 5 days is not in very good agreement. The ECMWF and UKMET show a weakening cyclone moving along the western side of the guidance envelope whereas the GFS show a strong system moving much more to the northeast. The 4- and 5-day official forecast positions are close to the simple and corrected model consensus predictions. However there is low confidence in this forecast, given the spread in the model tracks. For the next couple of days, the storm should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that will be quite conducive for strengthening. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices and the DTOPS probabilities for RI suggest a high likelihood for significant strengthening during the next 48 hours or so. This is also reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which explicitly shows RI in the earlier part of the period. In 3 to 5 days, higher south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to inhibit strengthening. The official forecast is near or above the intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 2

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Norma is becoming better organized on satellite imagery. There is a developing Central Dense Overcast with very cold cloud tops, and some convective banding is evident. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the western semicircle of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Based on recent center fixes, the motion is now northwestward, or around 305/7 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the east of Norma should maintain a slow northwestward to north-northwestward track for the next 48 to 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, there is significant uncertainty in the track, since the model guidance at 3 to 5 days is not in very good agreement. The ECMWF and UKMET show a weakening cyclone moving along the western side of the guidance envelope whereas the GFS show a strong system moving much more to the northeast. The 4- and 5-day official forecast positions are close to the simple and corrected model consensus predictions. However there is low confidence in this forecast, given the spread in the model tracks. For the next couple of days, the storm should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that will be quite conducive for strengthening. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices and the DTOPS probabilities for RI suggest a high likelihood for significant strengthening during the next 48 hours or so. This is also reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which explicitly shows RI in the earlier part of the period. In 3 to 5 days, higher south-southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to inhibit strengthening. The official forecast is near or above the intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.5N 108.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 18.2N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.2N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 21.3N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Norma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 180237 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM NORMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023 0300 UTC WED OCT 18 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 38(48) 20(68) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 35(43) 22(65) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 23(44) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 11(25) 10(35) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 14(26) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 6(18) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 15N 105W 34 5 5(10) 4(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 27 18(45) 6(51) 3(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) 15N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 50(72) 15(87) 3(90) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 22(55) 3(58) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) 3(35) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 15(28) 34(62) 8(70) 2(72) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 6(27) 2(29) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Norma Public Advisory Number 2

5 months 1 week ago
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 180237 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norma Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172023 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 17 2023 ...NORMA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 107.8W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norma was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 107.8 West. Norma is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Norma is likely to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
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4 years 5 months ago
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