National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...DISORGANIZED CHANTAL LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 21 the center of Chantal was located near 39.8, -49.1 with movement E at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 212032 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 49.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 49.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 50.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.4N 46.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.5N 43.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.4N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 36.0N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211727
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia.

An area of disturbed weather extends over the Central and Northwest
Bahamas and the adjacent waters. Some slow development of this
system is possible over the next several days as it moves toward the
Florida peninsula and then the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 14:44:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 15:24:30 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 211443 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal has changed little since last night. It remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the deep convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Although the shear is forecast to gradually diminish, the system should remain in an environment of dry air at the low- to mid-levels for the next several days. This will likely cause weakening, and Chantal is forecast to become a depression within 48 hours and degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and only slightly below the model consensus. The motion continues eastward, or 090/17 kt. Chantal is forecast to turn clockwise and decelerate around the periphery of a mid-level anticyclone over the next few days. Later in the period, the cyclone is predicted to drift northward. The official track forecast is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA, guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 40.2N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 40.0N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 39.2N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 38.1N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 36.0N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z 37.0N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 458 FONT14 KNHC 211442 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 490 WTNT34 KNHC 211442 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 ...CHANTAL CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 51.6W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 51.6 West. Chantal is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday. Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become a tropical depression in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...CHANTAL CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 21 the center of Chantal was located near 40.2, -51.6 with movement E at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 211441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 51.6W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 51.6W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 40.0N 48.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.2N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 38.1N 42.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 36.0N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 37.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 51.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia.

An area of disturbed weather located over the central and
northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over
the next several days at it moves toward the Florida peninsula and
then the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210835 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 Chantal has changed little overnight. A small area of deep convection has persisted northeast of the tropical storm's exposed surface center. Given the steady-state structure of the cyclone, the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier ASCAT data. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track and intensity forecasts, the most substantial of which is that Chantal is now expected to become a remnant low within 96 h. The tropical storm is surrounded by dry air and will be moving over marginal SSTs for the next couple of days. As a result of this unfavorable environment, Chantal is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by 48 h. Most of the dynamical models indicate that the cyclone will lose all of its convection and become post-tropical soon after, but the official forecast conservatively maintains the system as a tropical cyclone for 72 h. The official intensity forecast is near a consensus of the GFS, HMON, and HWRF models. The tropical storm is moving quickly eastward, but is forecast to slow and turn southeastward by Thursday. It should then turn toward the south on Friday as it moves around the northeast periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the central Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on the forecast, at least as long as Chantal remains a tropical cyclone. The uncertainty in the track forecast is higher after the cyclone becomes a remnant low, but most of the guidance generally suggests that Chantal will become trapped in weak steering flow and meander over the North Atlantic for a couple days thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 40.3N 53.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 40.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 39.6N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 37.2N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 35.3N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 35.5N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z 37.5N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 08:35:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 09:24:35 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 210832 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 210832 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019 ...CHANTAL CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.3N 53.7W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 53.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the east near 22 mph (35 km/h). A turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday. Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become a tropical depression in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, mainly to the south. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...CHANTAL CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 21 the center of Chantal was located near 40.3, -53.7 with movement E at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 210831 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 53.7W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 53.7W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 40.2N 50.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.6N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.2N 42.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.3N 42.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 35.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 37.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210514
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
developed Tropical Storm Chantal, located several hundred miles
southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 02:34:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 03:24:29 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210232 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019 Recent scatterometer wind data and passive microwave satellite images indicate that the small low pressure system that the NHC has been monitoring for the past few days has developed a well-defined surface wind circulation and contains tropical-storm-force winds south of the cyclone's center. Therefore, the low has become Tropical Storm Chantal. The initial motion estimate is 085/19 kt. NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement that Chantal will move eastward around the northern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and gradually slow down during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to drop southward around the eastern portion of the ridge, possibly stalling over warmer waters. The NHC forecast track lies close to the consensus models HCCA and TVCN. Chantal is expected to remain in a moderate southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear regime for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a significant decrease in the shear through 120 h. After 48 hours, the southward motion is also expected to move Chantal over warmer water with SSTs around 27C. However, mid-level moisture is expected to be quite sparse with humidity values forecast to be less than 40 percent based on the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance. Therefore, little or no significant intensification is expected throughout the forecast period, and the official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Although the official forecast calls for Chantal to remain a tropical cyclone through the 120 h, the abundance of dry air that the cyclone will be moving through could result in erosion of the deep convection sooner than currently expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 40.2N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 40.3N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 40.2N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 39.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 37.4N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 34.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 34.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 36.0N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 210231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART