National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 242042 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 49.1W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 49.1W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.0N 50.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.4N 52.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.9N 54.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 61.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 16.5N 65.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N 69.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 242042 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 49.1W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Dorian. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 49.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 24 the center of Dorian was located near 10.7, -49.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241740
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed
Tropical Depression Five, located about 800 miles east-southeast of
Barbados.

A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from the
southern Florida peninsula northeastward into the Atlantic is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
primarily over the Atlantic north of the Bahamas and east of the
central Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a
tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week
while the system moves northeastward over the Atlantic offshore of
the southeastern United States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on
Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Surface observations along with satellite imagery and radar data
indicate that a low pressure area is located near the upper
Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity shows signs of organization. However, the
system is likely to move inland over eastern Texas and western
Louisiana before tropical cyclone formation can occur. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy rains
to portions of Louisiana and eastern Texas during the next day or
two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241518
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1120 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the low pressure
area in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, the formation of Tropical
Depression Five, and the aircraft for the Florida low.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed
Tropical Depression Five, located about 800 miles east-southeast of
Barbados.

A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
that extends eastward over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Significant development of the low is unlikely
today while it drifts northward over the southern or central Florida
peninsula. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development once the low moves off the east-central coast of
Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon has been canceled. Another aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that a low
pressure area has formed just off the upper Texas and southwestern
Louisiana coasts. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity
shows signs of organization. However, the system is likely to move
inland over eastern Texas and western Louisiana before significant
development can occur. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to bring locally heavy rains to portions of Louisiana and
eastern Texas during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241457 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past several days across the tropical Atlantic Ocean has acquired enough deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression, the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2019 hurricane season. Two ASCAT passes between 1200-1300Z this morning indicated that the system had a closed circulation and surface winds of at least 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for this advisory. Upper-level outflow is fair to the northwest and restricted to the southeast due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement that the cyclone will move in a general west-northwestward direction along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 5 days, bring the system through the central or northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The official forecast track is close to the consensus model TVCN, which is a little north of the NOAA HCCA corrected-consensus model. The small cyclone is currently experiencing easterly to southeasterly shear of about 15 kt. The shear is forecast to steadily decrease over the next 24 h and be around 5 kt in the 24-to-72-hour time period. Although the depression is expected to remain embedded in a fairly dry mid-level environment, the small overall circulation, small radius of maximum winds, low shear regime, and warm SSTs of 28.0-28.5 deg C should allow for slow but steady intensification through the 5-day period despite occasional intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models, and the more robust HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.4N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.7N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 51.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 11.4N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 12.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 13.6N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 17.1N 66.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 14:49:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 15:25:05 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 241442 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 28(43) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 14(33) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 11(34) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 3(36) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 17(55) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 39(49) 3(52) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 36(52) 2(54) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 30(47) 2(49) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 24(36) 1(37) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 11(43) X(43) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.4N 47.9W ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 24 the center of Five was located near 10.4, -47.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 241440 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 47.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 47.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 47.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.0N 51.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.4N 53.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.6N 59.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.1N 66.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
that extends eastward over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent
Atlantic waters. Significant development of the low is unlikely
today while it drifts northward over the southern or central Florida
peninsula. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development once the low moves off the east-central coast of
Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon could be postponed if the center of the low remains
inland. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on
Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 950 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the low moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions appear
less favorable for development when the low reaches the Lesser
Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240545
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal, located several hundred miles west of
the Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northwestern Bahamas
and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Significant development of the
low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern
Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive to
support gradual development once the low moves off the east-central
coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical
or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system later
today could be postponed if the center of the low remains inland
over Florida. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Conditions
appear less favorable for development when the low reaches the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 02:35:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 03:24:26 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240234 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal has not produced organized deep convection since early this morning and is now a remnant low. Recent ASCAT data indicate that the maximum winds associated with the cyclone remain near 25 kt. The remnant low is forecast to gradually spin down during the next couple of days while it slowly makes a small clockwise loop over the central North Atlantic. By Monday, the low will likely become poorly defined and dissipate. This is the last NHC advisory on Chantal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 35.6N 40.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/1200Z 35.1N 41.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0000Z 34.9N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 35.4N 43.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 35.9N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 240234 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 ...CHANTAL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 40.9W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 40.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the southwest and west is expected over the weekend, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated and Chantal is forecast to dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Chantal. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...CHANTAL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 23 the center of Chantal was located near 35.6, -40.9 with movement S at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240233 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.1N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.9N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.4N 43.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 35.9N 44.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 40.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232334
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles west of the
Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southeastern
Florida continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northern Bahamas and the
adjacent western Atlantic waters. The system has changed little in
organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend. The low is forecast
to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida
through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the
Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday. After
that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the
southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend.
Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and
the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an
area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of
the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm
activity is limited at this time. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown