Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 29 20:05:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2020 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of Nebraska...Southern South Dakota Northeastern Colorado and far northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291913Z - 292115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon/evening. A few supercells may organize with a risk for hail and damaging gusts. A WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 1910 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed initial convective development was underway across parts of the central Plains. Weak ascent from a shortwave trough exiting the Rockies will continue to overspread a warming air mass ahead of a weak lee trough/low over western NE. With little remnant inhibition (from the 18z LBF sounding), continued diurnal heating will result in gradual destabilization with menial mid-level lapse, generally less than 7 C/km. Despite the poor lapse rates, MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg should be sufficient for scattered strong to occasionally severe storms. Elongated hodographs, owing to 40-50 kt of deep-layer flow, will support storm organization into clusters and a few supercells. Hail will be possible along with damaging winds given the high PWAT air mass. Confidence in the timing and general convective evolution is low owing to modest forcing for ascent. The poor lapse rates also suggest storm organization may be somewhat slow initially as updrafts gradually build in intensity. However, CAM guidance does show stronger, likely organized, storms eventually evolving over portions of central and southern NE later this afternoon. Given the expected increase in storm coverage and potential for organized supercells with a severe risk, a WW is possible. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40159973 39920004 39370089 39050265 39710345 40730280 41410243 42730189 43470141 43630041 43469957 42329845 41189879 40159973 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible mainly late this afternoon into evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...20Z Update... Given observational and CAM guidance trends, an area of greater supercell potential appears evident in parts of southeast Colorado and nearby vicinity. Discrete storms would be most likely within the surface trough. A cluster or two of storms could also potentially move off the higher terrain later this afternoon. Large hail and isolated severe winds would be the primary threats, though a brief tornado could occur in the surface trough. Observational trends also suggest limited potential for severe storms in the Sabine Valley region. Severe probabilities have been removed. ..Wendt.. 08/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern High Plains... Recent surface analysis show a reservoir of low-level moisture across the central/southern High Plains, varying from the mid 60s across eastern NM into the lower 60s across northeast CO and the NE Panhandle. General expectation is for modest upslope flow to contribute to another day of afternoon/evening thunderstorms across much of central/eastern CO and eastern NM. Thunderstorms also look probable farther north in the vicinity of a weak surface low, which is expected to develop along a sharpening lee trough over the NE Panhandle. Current surface low over western SD will likely fill throughout the day, although there could still be enough low-level convergence near the remnant troughing to support a few thunderstorms as well. In general, there looks to be more overall storm coverage than the last few days. Some modest enhancement of the mid-level flow is possible as the low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over southern UT continues northeastward through the periphery of the ridge into the central Rockies. The strongest flow will extend from northern CO/southeast WY into central NE, where elongated hodographs result in a wind profile that supports supercells capable of large hail. Lapse rates are generally poor, but ample low-level moisture should still result in enough buoyancy for mature updrafts. Highest storm coverage across this region is anticipated over western NE, where 15% hail probabilities were introduced. A secondary area of greater storm coverage is expected farther south from southeast CO through northeast NM as storms move eastward off the Colorado mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity. Mid-level westerly flow will be a bit weaker here than farther north but should still be sufficient for around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Lapse rates are poor and overall storm strength will likely be limited by tempered buoyancy. Even so, multicells and a supercell or two are still possible initially, with eventual clustering as storms move across eastern Colorado/northeast New Mexico toward western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Isolated hail is possible with the initially more cellular storms, with a trend towards damaging gusts as storms become more linear. ...Sabine River Valley... A relatively widespread corridor of showers/thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from east Texas into central/southeast Louisiana, to the north of a front that will continue to settle southward today. A related cloud canopy extends across the warm sector, but moderate destabilization should still occur into the afternoon south of the front and on the south/southwest flank of the residual early day storms. Some stronger storms could persist and/or develop this afternoon, with isolated instances of damaging winds a possibility as low-level lapse rates steepen. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad, upper level troughing will persist across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be centered near the Great Lakes, while a cold front sags southward across portions of TX and the Gulf Coast region. Persistent, but modest northwesterly flow aloft and adequate boundary layer moisture/instability will support scattered thunderstorms across the Plains. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain low, but a couple of strong storms across central/south TX could produce locally gusty winds where stronger heating/destabilization occurs ahead of the surface boundary. ..Leitman.. 08/29/2025 Read more