Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with potential for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible from early to mid evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... On water vapor imagery, northwesterly mid-level flow is evident over much of the central U.S. with a ridge over the central High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass is located across the southern and central Plains, where dewpoints are mostly in the 60s F. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed along the western edge of the moist airmass from far eastern New Mexico north-northeastward into west-central Nebraska. Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis, with a few that are severe. The wind profile on the WSR-88D VWP at Dodge City appears to be representative along the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots and strong mid-level speed shear. This will continue to support a marginal severe threat from early to mid evening, mainly with the storms that are close to the instability axis. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats. The severe threat will gradually diminish as instability decreases over the next few hours. ..Broyles.. 08/30/2025 Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/29/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-061-071-073-089-099-300140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY KIOWA LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS KSC067-075-093-129-187-189-300140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT HAMILTON KEARNY MORTON STANTON STEVENS NMC021-033-037-047-059-300140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION Read more

MD 2022 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 604... Valid 292310Z - 300115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 604 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will spread southeast this evening. Isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm clusters have evolved across northeast NM into southwest KS ahead of a short-wave trough. This feature is advancing into western CO/NM and should encourage ongoing activity to spread slowly downstream this evening. However, latest diagnostic data suggests these clusters are rooted within the most buoyant air mass (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and will gradually advance beyond the primary corridor of instability that extends from eastern NM into western KS. MRMS data suggests the most robust updrafts could be generating hail at times, but the more likely scenario may actually be gusts as lapse rates are not that steep across this region. In the absence of a pronounced LLJ this activity should gradually weaken later this evening. ..Darrow.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35090440 38520404 38530180 35090228 35090440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/29/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-061-071-073-089-099-300140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY KIOWA LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS KSC067-075-093-129-187-189-300140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT HAMILTON KEARNY MORTON STANTON STEVENS NMC021-033-037-047-059-300140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION Read more

WW 604 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 292100Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 604 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Far Southwest Kansas Northeast New Mexico Western and Central Oklahoma Panhandle Western Texas Panhandle * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms across northeast NM and southeast CO are expected to continue through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching the western TX and OK Panhandles. Additional storms are possible near the southern CO/KS border. The environment supports large hail and isolated damaging gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Lamar CO to 15 miles east southeast of Tucumcari NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Mosier Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 29 22:34:10 UTC 2025.

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 604 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/29/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-061-071-073-089-099-292340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY KIOWA LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS KSC067-075-093-129-187-189-292340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRANT HAMILTON KEARNY MORTON STANTON STEVENS NMC021-033-037-047-059-292340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A closed mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary along/off the Pacific Northwest coast Day 3/Sunday into Day 4/Monday before retrograding westward into the Pacific by Day 5/Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge is forecast to continue building across the Western US Day 3/Sunday and remain over the area through late next week. Another compact mid/upper-level low is forecast to drift northeastward from the Pacific and overspread portions of central/northern California Day 5/Tuesday and Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northern California, the inland Northwest, and the northwest Great Basin... The aforementioned closed low along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to promote dry and breezy conditions across portions of northern California, the inland northwest, and the northwest Great Basin Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday. At this time, wind speeds are forecast to remain below Critical thresholds on a large-scale basis, precluding Critical probabilities. ...Day 4/Monday - Day 7/Thursday: Northern California and the Northwest... Hot, dry, and unstable conditions are forecast to develop across portions of Northern California and the Northwest Day 4/Monday through much of the week as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area and a thermal trough strengthens. This may lead to an increase in fire activity from recent holdovers and also promote longer burn periods on ongoing large fires. Forecast guidance has also come into better agreement regarding the evolution of the aforementioned compact upper-level low, which is now forecast by most guidance to drift slowly along the California coast Day 5/Tuesday and into southern Oregon by Day 7/Thursday. While lightning potential may increase as increasing moisture interacts with a hot and unstable atmosphere, there remains a bit too much uncertainty regarding timing, location, and coverage of thunderstorms to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. Nevertheless, with fuels becoming increasingly receptive early next week, as the upper-level ridge builds into the area, any lightning potential will be monitored closely over the next few days. ..Elliott.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2021 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2021 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292002Z - 292130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue developing this afternoon over the higher-terrains and adjacent plains. Eventually a few stronger clusters or supercells may evolve with a risk for damaging gusts and some hail. A WW is possible but uncertain. DISCUSSION...Weak upslope flow and strong diurnal heating of a moist air mass is support scattered thunderstorm development over portions of the central Rockies this afternoon. Weak ascent from a glancing shortwave trough and continued upslope should allow for additional development over the next several hours. While low and mid-level lapse rates aren't particularly steep, heating and upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints are supporting moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) over the southern high Plains. As convection intensifies this afternoon a 35-45 kt of bulk-shear are in place to support storm organization. A few organized clusters or supercell structures could evolve with an initial risk of damaging gusts and some hail. CAM guidance has trended more aggressive this afternoon, showing further storm development/upscale growth into this evening, which could support one or more linear clusters with a locally greater damaging wind threat. While confidence in the convective evolution is low owing to somewhat nebulous forcing for ascent, storm coverage is expected to increase over the coming hours. A broadly favorable severe environment with continued destabilization also suggests the severe threat is likely increasing. Portions of southeastern CO, southwest KS and northeast NM will be upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk at 20z. A WW is also being considered. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37380536 38750434 39050297 38270218 37070234 35300310 34350379 34250434 34540511 36330555 37380536 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0604 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0604 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more