Severe Storms

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW BMG TO 20 NW BMG TO 30 ENE BMG. ..KERR..08/13/19 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC013-027-055-071-083-093-101-105-119-153-130640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN DAVIESS GREENE JACKSON KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE OWEN SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 575 TORNADO IL IN MO 130125Z - 130800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois Western and central Indiana Extreme eastern Missouri * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 825 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Increasingly focus band of convection has formed over central IL, along with isolated, potentially severe convection northwest of STL, all moving into a favorable environment for supercells and bow echoes. Activity should progress east-southeastward over the watch area, with all severe types possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Alton IL to 30 miles south southeast of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Edwards Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid/upper synoptic pattern will amplify slightly as a broad trough becomes established across the East and a weak ridge increases across the Southwest. Stronger flow aloft will remain displaced from dry areas across the West (where fuels are cured), and this should keep fire weather concerns minimal throughout the forecast period. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The synoptic pattern will continue to be generally unfavorable for fire weather concerns today. Weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS today. Additionally, flow across dry areas of the West will remain relatively light outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. Given the minimal fire weather concerns, no highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW STL TO 15 SSE SPI TO 10 SW DEC TO 20 NE MTO TO 20 NW HUF TO 30 SE IND. ..GOSS..08/13/19 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-021-023-025-029-033-035-045-049-051-079-101-117-119-121- 135-139-159-173-130540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE JASPER LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND SHELBY INC013-021-027-055-071-081-083-093-101-105-109-119-153-167- 130540- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY DAVIESS GREENE JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE MORGAN OWEN Read more

MD 1720 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 575... FOR SOUTEHAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...soutehast Illinois...southern Indiana...and into portions of western and central Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 575... Valid 130445Z - 130645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues to evolve primarily toward damaging winds across WW 575. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms evolving into a fairly well-defined bow echo, moving southeastward at around 25 kt. Some acceleration of the band of convection is noted over the past half hour, near the Illinois/Indiana border. A tight instability gradient is aligned north-south across middle Tennessee and west-central Kentucky, which should limit the longer-term eastward advance of the convection. Meanwhile however, risk for damaging winds will continue across WW 575, and may spread southeast of the watch over the next couple of hours. We will continue to monitor evolution of the convection, and any possible need for a downstream WW. ..Goss.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38868893 39208868 39258805 39628710 39548628 38558503 37718495 37318561 37428698 38018799 38868893 Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE COU TO 45 SSE UIN TO 25 SW SPI TO 10 SW DEC TO 20 NE MTO TO 20 S DNV TO 30 ESE DNV TO 20 ESE LAF. ..COOK..08/13/19 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-029-033-035-045-049-051-061-079-083-101- 117-119-121-135-139-159-173-130440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND SHELBY INC011-013-021-027-055-063-071-081-083-093-097-101-105-107-109- 119-121-133-153-165-167-130440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BROWN CLAY DAVIESS GREENE HENDRICKS Read more

MD 1719 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 575... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...central and southern Illinois...southern Indiana...and into parts of western Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 575... Valid 130300Z - 130500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms have become well-established across central Illinois and vicinity. Damaging winds will likely become the primary severe risk, though tornado risk continues across central Illinois. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of convection in a roughly west-to-east band across central Illinois, that continues to shows signs of gradual upscale growth. However, updrafts still remain sufficiently separated spatially to reveal pronounced supercell characteristics in radar imagery, including a few strongly rotating cells. One such cell -- which appears likely to have been producing a tornado over the past half hour -- has now moved into northern Shelby County Illinois. With time, expect upscale growth to continue, with storms likely evolving into an east-southeastward-moving storm complex, where damaging winds would likely become the primary severe risk. This could require southeastward watch issuance later this evening. In the mean time, risk for damaging winds and a tornado or two will continue in the short term. ..Goss.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38939110 39909117 39918909 39988755 39788621 38558503 37718495 37318561 37428698 38389011 38939110 Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0575 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1718 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...north-central/northeastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130106Z - 130200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe wind gusts are likely with a convective complex migrating east-northeastward into the discussion area. A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity. DISCUSSION...A cluster of relatively disorganized updrafts over north-central Oklahoma near Enid/Medford has now increased in organization, with upscale growth now evident on radar along the leading edge of a mature cold pool now over Noble/Kay Counties and northwestward into Harper County, Kansas. These storms are moving into an extremely unstable downstream environment, with low 90s F surface temperatures and upper 70s F to near 80 F dewpoints contributing to 5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE. The downstream environment also contains modest deep shear and weak low-level shear, though the mature nature of the cold pool should support continued intense updrafts along its leading edge along with downdrafts capable of strong to isolated severe wind gusts and occasional hail. This threat is too localized/isolated to necessitate a WW issuance, though it is expected to continue east-northeastward in the general direction of BVO/IDP over the next couple of hours. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 37219739 37469683 37649562 37429477 36919465 36639523 36379646 36379715 36609756 37009763 37219739 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more