Severe Storms

MD 1868 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1868 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...southern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622... Valid 261951Z - 262115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622 continues. SUMMARY...Broken line of storms will continue to pose a risk for isolated damaging wind and large hail as it continues through southern MO this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Broken line of storms from Rolla to near Springfield continues southeast at 35-40 kt. Storms are moving into an environment characterized by warmer air near 700 mb, and recent trend has been for storms to become more discrete including what appears to be a supercell approaching Springfield. Storms are moving along instability gradient with downstream temperatures in the upper 80s along with low to mid 70s F dewpoints supporting 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. VWP data from Springfield also show veering low-level wind profiles with 50+ kt 0-6 km shear favorable for embedded organized structures. ..Dial.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF... LAT...LON 37689142 37119108 36599140 36529314 36719374 37069362 37409283 37499198 37689142 Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0623 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and please see the discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 08/26/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge axis will situate itself across the Pacific Northwest coast on D2/Tuesday. A surface anticyclone will continue on a southward track into central Rockies/High Plains along with the continued presence of a thermally induced pressure trough across the Oregon coast and northern California. The surface pressure pattern will continue to favor offshore flow across Oregon coast, with more of an easterly component than Monday. ...Western Oregon... Hot/dry conditions will be prevalent on Tuesday as strong heating occurs underneath the upper-level ridge. Easterly downslope flow off the Cascades will help reduce afternoon RH values to potentially below 20% in some locations, but more broadly 25-35%. Wind speed still appears to be the limiting factor to a greater threat for fire spread. However, a probable location for locally elevated concerns will be northern portions of the Willamette Valley where terrain-enhanced flow out of the Columbia Gorge will bring potential for 15-20 mph winds. Elsewhere within western Oregon, 10-15 mph are more likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N JLN TO 30 NNW SGF TO 30 W TBN TO 10 NW TBN TO 10 WSW VIH TO 10 NNW VIH. ..DIAL..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-011-043-057-059-065-067-077-091-105-109-125-149-153-161- 167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-262040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HOWELL LACLEDE LAWRENCE MARIES OREGON OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N JLN TO 30 NNW SGF TO 30 W TBN TO 10 NW TBN TO 10 WSW VIH TO 10 NNW VIH. ..DIAL..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-011-043-057-059-065-067-077-091-105-109-125-149-153-161- 167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-262040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HOWELL LACLEDE LAWRENCE MARIES OREGON OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N JLN TO 30 NNW SGF TO 30 W TBN TO 10 NW TBN TO 10 WSW VIH TO 10 NNW VIH. ..DIAL..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-011-043-057-059-065-067-077-091-105-109-125-149-153-161- 167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-262040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HOWELL LACLEDE LAWRENCE MARIES OREGON OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N JLN TO 30 NNW SGF TO 30 W TBN TO 10 NW TBN TO 10 WSW VIH TO 10 NNW VIH. ..DIAL..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC009-011-043-057-059-065-067-077-091-105-109-125-149-153-161- 167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-262040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HOWELL LACLEDE LAWRENCE MARIES OREGON OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 622 SEVERE TSTM MO 261710Z - 262200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Parts of central and southern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon from 1210 PM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-developed storm cluster with bowing characteristics will likely persist into the afternoon while moving east-southeastward into an environment more supportive of surface-based storms. The storms have produced measured gusts up to 76 mph in the past hour or so, and the threat for damaging winds and isolated large hail should continue for several more hours. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of Joplin MO to 45 miles east southeast of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1867 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1867 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...east central through southeast MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261924Z - 262030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may continue through east central and southeast MO posing a risk for damaging wind. Some uncertainty still exists regarding eastern extent of the threat, but trends are being monitored for a possible ww. DISCUSSION...Radar trends have indicated a recent increase in storm organization along the eastern flank of the MCS. An MCV is located along the northern end of the line, forcing a more eastward component to the movement. Moreover, the downstream atmosphere continues to destabilize with 2000 J/Kg MLCAPE and relatively weak convective inhibition. Storms are embedded with 30-40 kt effective shear. Given the downstream environment and sufficient mesoscale and storm scale forcing for ascent, there is a good chance storms may continue developing eastward next few hours, posing a risk for damaging wind. ..Dial/Thompson.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38609150 38709032 38058994 37669025 37579110 37999141 38609150 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 26 18:17:03 UTC 2019.

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N JLN TO 45 SSW SZL TO 30 SSE SZL TO 35 SE SZL. ..DIAL..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 622 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC011-015-029-039-057-059-065-077-085-105-125-131-141-161-167- 169-185-203-215-217-225-229-261940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR DADE DALLAS DENT GREENE HICKORY LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MORGAN PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR SHANNON TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0622 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across north Texas into western Louisiana Tuesday. ...TX/LA... Large-scale height falls will spread across the upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region Tuesday ahead of a notable, progressive upper trough. Southern-most direct influence of this feature will extend into the mid MS Valley; however, surface pressures will build across the Plains in the wake of the short wave. This will drive a front to near the Red River by daybreak as mid/high-level flow becomes more northwesterly. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period along the trailing front across AR/OK and this should aid southward push into north TX by early afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the wind shift from the Edwards Plateau into east-central TX where convective temperatures should be breached, perhaps as early as 20z. While early-day convection will not likely dissipate before this occurs, strongest updrafts should develop where surface temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Forecast soundings from ABI and SEP exhibit substantial SBCAPE at 20z with PW on the order of 2". While deep-layer flow will be weak, isolated damaging wind gusts are certainly possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Darrow.. 08/26/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across north Texas into western Louisiana Tuesday. ...TX/LA... Large-scale height falls will spread across the upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region Tuesday ahead of a notable, progressive upper trough. Southern-most direct influence of this feature will extend into the mid MS Valley; however, surface pressures will build across the Plains in the wake of the short wave. This will drive a front to near the Red River by daybreak as mid/high-level flow becomes more northwesterly. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period along the trailing front across AR/OK and this should aid southward push into north TX by early afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the wind shift from the Edwards Plateau into east-central TX where convective temperatures should be breached, perhaps as early as 20z. While early-day convection will not likely dissipate before this occurs, strongest updrafts should develop where surface temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Forecast soundings from ABI and SEP exhibit substantial SBCAPE at 20z with PW on the order of 2". While deep-layer flow will be weak, isolated damaging wind gusts are certainly possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Darrow.. 08/26/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across north Texas into western Louisiana Tuesday. ...TX/LA... Large-scale height falls will spread across the upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region Tuesday ahead of a notable, progressive upper trough. Southern-most direct influence of this feature will extend into the mid MS Valley; however, surface pressures will build across the Plains in the wake of the short wave. This will drive a front to near the Red River by daybreak as mid/high-level flow becomes more northwesterly. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period along the trailing front across AR/OK and this should aid southward push into north TX by early afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the wind shift from the Edwards Plateau into east-central TX where convective temperatures should be breached, perhaps as early as 20z. While early-day convection will not likely dissipate before this occurs, strongest updrafts should develop where surface temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Forecast soundings from ABI and SEP exhibit substantial SBCAPE at 20z with PW on the order of 2". While deep-layer flow will be weak, isolated damaging wind gusts are certainly possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Darrow.. 08/26/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across north Texas into western Louisiana Tuesday. ...TX/LA... Large-scale height falls will spread across the upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes region Tuesday ahead of a notable, progressive upper trough. Southern-most direct influence of this feature will extend into the mid MS Valley; however, surface pressures will build across the Plains in the wake of the short wave. This will drive a front to near the Red River by daybreak as mid/high-level flow becomes more northwesterly. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period along the trailing front across AR/OK and this should aid southward push into north TX by early afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the wind shift from the Edwards Plateau into east-central TX where convective temperatures should be breached, perhaps as early as 20z. While early-day convection will not likely dissipate before this occurs, strongest updrafts should develop where surface temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Forecast soundings from ABI and SEP exhibit substantial SBCAPE at 20z with PW on the order of 2". While deep-layer flow will be weak, isolated damaging wind gusts are certainly possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None ..Darrow.. 08/26/2019 Read more