Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST OK AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some hail are possible into the late evening from central Oklahoma northeastward into portions of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. ...OK...Southeast KS...Northwest AR...central/southern MO... Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through the evening from OK northeastward into southeast KS/southern MO. There is a narrow window of potential for surface-based convection through around 03Z across northern OK/southeast KS, with an increasing tendency for storms to become elevated by late tonight, as a cold front continues southward through the region. With strong buoyancy and sufficient effective shear, ongoing surface-based development will include the potential for at least transient supercell structures, with an attendant risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. See MCD 1873 for more information. Otherwise, one or more thunderstorm clusters will likely evolve with time. Any upscale growth would be accompanied by a continued risk of severe wind gusts, with the greatest relative risk expected over northeast OK/far southeast KS/far southwest MO, where the best overlap of instability/shear is expected through the evening. Some threat may spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO, though only partial airmass recovery is expected in the wake of earlier convection before the next round of storms moves through this area. ..Dean.. 08/27/2019 Read more

MD 1873 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...Central and northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624... Valid 270054Z - 270300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624 continues. SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts in WW 624. Some risk for tornadoes exists where storms may interact with an outflow boundary in southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma/southwest Missouri. DISCUSSION...Storm activity has been on the increase over the last hour with development recently in north-central Oklahoma as well some increase in intensity in southeast Kansas. Modest capping evident on the 00Z OUN sounding has slowed an increase in storm coverage thus far. Storms that have been able to initiate will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts with extreme buoyancy of 4500+ J/kg MLCAPE and mid-level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km. A tornado or two will also be possible for any discrete storms, where the threat will be maximized in southeastern Kansas/far northeast Oklahoma/southwest Missouri where storms may interact with an outflow boundary from earlier convection. Elsewhere, frontal forcing should eventually lead to more linear modes of convection into the early/mid evening. The overall expectation is for activity to continue to increase in coverage as the front continues to move south, while the low-level jet will modestly increase and impinge upon the boundary later this evening. ..Wendt.. 08/27/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35469869 35869842 36129810 36519752 37219646 37709559 37839492 37579409 36799410 36249431 35659520 35009664 34749765 34859843 34979867 35469869 Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW END TO 25 NE CNU. ..GOSS..08/27/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-270140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC001-011-019-021-037-099-125-133-205-270140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON MOC011-097-119-145-270140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON JASPER MCDONALD NEWTON Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG TO 20 NW POF TO 15 N POF TO 30 NE POF TO 15 W CGI TO 15 NE CGI TO 20 SSE MDH AND 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL AND 25 SSE POF TO 25 E POF TO 25 S CGI TO 20 SE CGI TO 20 W PAH. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC133-143-270040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG TO 20 NW POF TO 15 N POF TO 30 NE POF TO 15 W CGI TO 15 NE CGI TO 20 SSE MDH AND 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL AND 25 SSE POF TO 25 E POF TO 25 S CGI TO 20 SE CGI TO 20 W PAH. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC133-143-270040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG TO 20 NW POF TO 15 N POF TO 30 NE POF TO 15 W CGI TO 15 NE CGI TO 20 SSE MDH AND 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL AND 25 SSE POF TO 25 E POF TO 25 S CGI TO 20 SE CGI TO 20 W PAH. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC133-143-270040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 624 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 624 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-270040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207-270040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC011-097-119-145-270040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON JASPER MCDONALD Read more

MD 1872 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623... FOR MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1872 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...mid Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys west-southwest to northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623... Valid 262248Z - 262345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623 continues. SUMMARY...Limited severe risk continues in/near WW 623. As storms spread/develop outside of the existing watch, a new WW may be considered. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a semi-organized band of storms moving across southeast Missouri at this time, in the southeastern portions of WW 623. Meanwhile to the west-southwest, a lone severe storm continues moving southward across Newton/Searcy Counties in Arkansas, but has shown signs of weakening with time. As the band of storms within WW 623 shift southeastward, they will gradually encounter a more stable airmass, per objective analyses. As such, long-term trends are expected to be downward, in terms of potential storm severity. One exception could be with any cells that could develop on the western flank of the ongoing band of storms, as a more unstable airmass remains present across northern and western Arkansas. Still, with stronger flow aloft to remain from the Ozarks northward, any risk should remain limited, and thus current expectations are that a new/downstream watch may not be required. ..Goss.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 37578939 37338813 36248855 35279068 35399280 35939331 36429254 36649106 37578939 Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ARG TO 20 NW POF TO 15 N POF TO 30 NE POF TO 15 W CGI TO 15 NE CGI TO 20 SSE MDH AND 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-153-181-262340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER PULASKI UNION MOC023-133-143-181-201-207-262340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 623 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 261945Z - 270100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southwestern Illinois Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster has remained well organized across central Missouri early this afternoon, and it appears likely that the storms will persist through the afternoon while approaching the Mississippi River. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Farmington MO to 25 miles southeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 622... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0624 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0624 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0624 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 624 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 262210Z - 270500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Central and Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Monday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify late this afternoon and early evening, initially across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri, with storms expanding/developing south-southeastward through the evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary risks, although a tornado cannot be ruled out particularly across southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Chanute KS to 20 miles south southeast of Oklahoma City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 623... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE UNO TO 30 S STL. ..WENDT..08/26/19 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 623 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-077-133-145-153-157-163-181-189-262340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER JACKSON MONROE PERRY PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR UNION WASHINGTON MOC017-023-031-035-093-099-123-133-143-157-179-181-186-187-201- 207-223-262340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER IRON JEFFERSON MADISON MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY REYNOLDS RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 1871 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN ILLINOIS/WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1871 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...eastern Illinois/western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262129Z - 262230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A rotating storm or two may evolve within a pre-frontal band of storms evolving in the vicinity of the Illinois/Indiana border late this afternoon. WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows showers/scattered thunderstorms developing in confluent flow ahead of an advancing cold front, in a narrow axis of warm-sector instability. As the front approaches, an uptick in storm coverage may occur, with a few stronger storms possibly evolving -- aided by moderate/veering flow with height per area VWPs. The instability axis remains narrow, suggesting that any risk will remain confined, areally and temporally. Still, a locally damaging wind gusty or two could occur, and possibly even a brief tornado prior to a diurnal decrease in convection later this evening. ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 40948699 40568655 39778668 38938721 38818783 38928861 39548863 40478760 40898746 40948699 Read more

MD 1870 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...central/northern Oklahoma...southeastern Kansas...and far southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262039Z - 262315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat should gradually evolve as storms initiate along surface boundaries on the northern/northeastern portions of the discussion area this afternoon/evening. A WW will probably be needed for this activity. DISCUSSION...Observations/satellite imagery indicate a weak surface cold front draped from eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. Additionally, an outflow boundary exists from just south of SGF northwestward to the cold front west of CNU. Ahead of these boundaries, upper 70s dewpoints and upper 90s F temperatures were contributing to extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MUCAPE) beneath steep (8-8.5 deg C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Some inhibition is also apparent across the region, though the gradually deepening character of the cumulus field over northeastern Oklahoma and near the outflow boundary in southeastern Kansas suggests that this inhibition is gradually weakening. Models/high-res guidance suggests potential for explosive development to occur along the aforementioned surface boundaries once inhibition is sufficiently removed. The timing of this development is in question, however, and may hold off through 23-00Z or so. Once storms do develop, deep shear will be sufficient for marginally organized storms, with instability supporting severe hail and wind. A brief tornado threat may exist with initial development - especially early in convective evolution where vorticity ingest can be relatively uninterrupted before cold pools can develop and mature. Convective trends will be monitored for a potential WW issuance over the next couple of hours. ..Cook/Thompson.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 38069501 38019572 37719645 37109734 36469814 35949867 35439873 35239821 35279756 35649666 36259548 36539456 36779407 36989396 37389409 37699437 37929477 38069501 Read more

MD 1869 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Areas affected...northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262037Z - 262130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may eventually develop into northern AR, posing a risk for isolated damaging wind and large hail. Trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Storms over southern MO have trended more discrete with a lone storm with supercell structures approaching Taney county. The atmosphere over northern AR is moderately to strongly unstable and weakly capped with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though only one severe storm is currently in progress, additional storms could develop farther west along trailing outflow boundary. Southeasterly near surface winds veering to northwesterly, with up to 40 kt effective bulk shear will support organized storm structures as storms cross into northern AR. ..Dial/Thompson.. 08/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 36449315 36409227 35809146 35239152 34959272 35549320 36009368 36379353 36449315 Read more