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6 years ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
The mid-level trough responsible for D1 fire weather concerns in the
West will take on a negative tilt while slowly migrating
northeastward over Oregon and vicinity. As this occurs, a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward eastern Nevada
and eastern Idaho. Meanwhile, areas of scattered to widespread
thunderstorm activity will once again migrate over inland portions
of the Pacific Northwest and northern California.
...Eastern Nevada, far western Utah, and eastern Idaho...
Vertical mixing processes beneath the mid-level jet core will
encourage development of a belt of relatively strong (15-25 mph)
south-southwesterly surface winds during peak heating periods across
the region. This region also resides on the western fringe of much
of the rainfall over the past month or so, with dry fuels supporting
ongoing fires across the region. One lingering uncertainty with
regard to the extent of the fire-weather threat in this area will be
potential for wetting rainfall over the region on D1/Fri, which may
temper fuels in a few areas. However, elevated to locally critical
fire weather will likely exist given near-critical RH values
expected during the afternoon. Some portions of this region may
need a critical upgrade in later outlook updates.
...Washington, Oregon, and northern California for thunderstorms...
The continued presence of mid-level moisture and a nearby trough
will again foster areas of northeastward-moving clusters of storms
across the region. However, the extent of dry thunder potential is
a bit less clear compared to prior days due to 1) expected areas of
wetting rainfall on D1/Fri, which should temper fuel states on at
least a localized basis and 2) the coverage of wetting rainfall
during the afternoon and evening, which should further temper fuel
states over a much broader area especially in Oregon. CAMS/high-res
guidance even depicts upscale growth into linear complex(es) during
peak heating hours. Nevertheless, areas that can remain dry will be
susceptible to isolated dry lightning strikes outside of heavier
thunderstorm cores, and gusty/erratic winds near downdrafts are
expected.
..Cook.. 08/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 years ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
The mid-level trough responsible for D1 fire weather concerns in the
West will take on a negative tilt while slowly migrating
northeastward over Oregon and vicinity. As this occurs, a belt of
enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward eastern Nevada
and eastern Idaho. Meanwhile, areas of scattered to widespread
thunderstorm activity will once again migrate over inland portions
of the Pacific Northwest and northern California.
...Eastern Nevada, far western Utah, and eastern Idaho...
Vertical mixing processes beneath the mid-level jet core will
encourage development of a belt of relatively strong (15-25 mph)
south-southwesterly surface winds during peak heating periods across
the region. This region also resides on the western fringe of much
of the rainfall over the past month or so, with dry fuels supporting
ongoing fires across the region. One lingering uncertainty with
regard to the extent of the fire-weather threat in this area will be
potential for wetting rainfall over the region on D1/Fri, which may
temper fuels in a few areas. However, elevated to locally critical
fire weather will likely exist given near-critical RH values
expected during the afternoon. Some portions of this region may
need a critical upgrade in later outlook updates.
...Washington, Oregon, and northern California for thunderstorms...
The continued presence of mid-level moisture and a nearby trough
will again foster areas of northeastward-moving clusters of storms
across the region. However, the extent of dry thunder potential is
a bit less clear compared to prior days due to 1) expected areas of
wetting rainfall on D1/Fri, which should temper fuel states on at
least a localized basis and 2) the coverage of wetting rainfall
during the afternoon and evening, which should further temper fuel
states over a much broader area especially in Oregon. CAMS/high-res
guidance even depicts upscale growth into linear complex(es) during
peak heating hours. Nevertheless, areas that can remain dry will be
susceptible to isolated dry lightning strikes outside of heavier
thunderstorm cores, and gusty/erratic winds near downdrafts are
expected.
..Cook.. 08/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 years ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A longwave trough centered just west of the northern California
coast will continue its slow trek eastward toward the West Coast
throughout the day. As this occurs, mid-level flow will increase in
a corridor from southern California northward to Idaho. The deep
southerly flow will maintain moist mid-level profiles in much of the
western third of the CONUS, and lift associated with the approaching
trough and surface heating should foster several areas of
thunderstorms. Additionally, a favorable pressure gradient and
terrain-related forcing should foster areas of windy conditions
across Nevada and vicinity through the evening.
...Central Nevada northward into Washington for thunderstorms...
The aforementioned synoptic pattern will foster scattered areas of
thunderstorms as early as mid-day while gradually increasing in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening hours.
These storms should provide wetting rains to several areas, with
isolated dry lightning strikes occurring on the periphery of wetting
thunderstorm cores. Coverage will increase with northward extent
into Oregon and southwestern Idaho throughout the day, with
widespread areas of gusty outflow winds amidst areas of dry fuels
suggestive of erratic fire behavior and complicated suppression
efforts. A few of these wind gusts may exceed severe limits - refer
to SPC Day 1 Convective Outlooks for more updates on this threat.
At least pockets of dry fuels will exist as far east as eastern
Idaho, and isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been highlighted
in this area with storms expected through early evening. Storms
will continue to lift northward and persist in many areas of
Washington and Oregon overnight.
...Much of Nevada and far northeast California for elevated fire
weather conditions...
Surface troughing and vertical mixing processes will foster areas of
20-25 mph surface winds that will be strongest in a couple of
corridors - one in the immediate lee of the Sierras and another
along an axis from southeastern into east-central Nevada. Areas of
critically low RH values will also exist for a few hours during peak
heating, though clouds and areas of precipitation may hinder the
degree of mixing/lowered RH in several areas as well. The overall
scenario appears to be consistent with elevated fire weather
thresholds, though locally critical fire weather will probably
develop over southeastern Nevada for at least an hour or two.
..Cook.. 08/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 years ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A longwave trough centered just west of the northern California
coast will continue its slow trek eastward toward the West Coast
throughout the day. As this occurs, mid-level flow will increase in
a corridor from southern California northward to Idaho. The deep
southerly flow will maintain moist mid-level profiles in much of the
western third of the CONUS, and lift associated with the approaching
trough and surface heating should foster several areas of
thunderstorms. Additionally, a favorable pressure gradient and
terrain-related forcing should foster areas of windy conditions
across Nevada and vicinity through the evening.
...Central Nevada northward into Washington for thunderstorms...
The aforementioned synoptic pattern will foster scattered areas of
thunderstorms as early as mid-day while gradually increasing in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening hours.
These storms should provide wetting rains to several areas, with
isolated dry lightning strikes occurring on the periphery of wetting
thunderstorm cores. Coverage will increase with northward extent
into Oregon and southwestern Idaho throughout the day, with
widespread areas of gusty outflow winds amidst areas of dry fuels
suggestive of erratic fire behavior and complicated suppression
efforts. A few of these wind gusts may exceed severe limits - refer
to SPC Day 1 Convective Outlooks for more updates on this threat.
At least pockets of dry fuels will exist as far east as eastern
Idaho, and isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been highlighted
in this area with storms expected through early evening. Storms
will continue to lift northward and persist in many areas of
Washington and Oregon overnight.
...Much of Nevada and far northeast California for elevated fire
weather conditions...
Surface troughing and vertical mixing processes will foster areas of
20-25 mph surface winds that will be strongest in a couple of
corridors - one in the immediate lee of the Sierras and another
along an axis from southeastern into east-central Nevada. Areas of
critically low RH values will also exist for a few hours during peak
heating, though clouds and areas of precipitation may hinder the
degree of mixing/lowered RH in several areas as well. The overall
scenario appears to be consistent with elevated fire weather
thresholds, though locally critical fire weather will probably
develop over southeastern Nevada for at least an hour or two.
..Cook.. 08/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 years ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A longwave trough centered just west of the northern California
coast will continue its slow trek eastward toward the West Coast
throughout the day. As this occurs, mid-level flow will increase in
a corridor from southern California northward to Idaho. The deep
southerly flow will maintain moist mid-level profiles in much of the
western third of the CONUS, and lift associated with the approaching
trough and surface heating should foster several areas of
thunderstorms. Additionally, a favorable pressure gradient and
terrain-related forcing should foster areas of windy conditions
across Nevada and vicinity through the evening.
...Central Nevada northward into Washington for thunderstorms...
The aforementioned synoptic pattern will foster scattered areas of
thunderstorms as early as mid-day while gradually increasing in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening hours.
These storms should provide wetting rains to several areas, with
isolated dry lightning strikes occurring on the periphery of wetting
thunderstorm cores. Coverage will increase with northward extent
into Oregon and southwestern Idaho throughout the day, with
widespread areas of gusty outflow winds amidst areas of dry fuels
suggestive of erratic fire behavior and complicated suppression
efforts. A few of these wind gusts may exceed severe limits - refer
to SPC Day 1 Convective Outlooks for more updates on this threat.
At least pockets of dry fuels will exist as far east as eastern
Idaho, and isolated dry thunderstorm potential has been highlighted
in this area with storms expected through early evening. Storms
will continue to lift northward and persist in many areas of
Washington and Oregon overnight.
...Much of Nevada and far northeast California for elevated fire
weather conditions...
Surface troughing and vertical mixing processes will foster areas of
20-25 mph surface winds that will be strongest in a couple of
corridors - one in the immediate lee of the Sierras and another
along an axis from southeastern into east-central Nevada. Areas of
critically low RH values will also exist for a few hours during peak
heating, though clouds and areas of precipitation may hinder the
degree of mixing/lowered RH in several areas as well. The overall
scenario appears to be consistent with elevated fire weather
thresholds, though locally critical fire weather will probably
develop over southeastern Nevada for at least an hour or two.
..Cook.. 08/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 years ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and
evening mainly over the northern Rockies with large hail and
damaging wind the main threats. Other strong to severe storms are
possible over the central High Plains and coastal North Carolina.
...Synopsis...
An omega blocking pattern will prevail over the U.S. Saturday with
an upper ridge situated over the southern Plains flanked by upper
troughs over the western and eastern states. At the surface a cold
front should extend from a weak surface low over eastern SD
southwest into northwest NE and move slowly southeast during the
day. A quasi-stationary front will extend southeast from the low
through the middle MS and into the TN Valley regions. Farther north
another cold front will move southward into the northern Plains. A
quasi-stationary front will reside across the eastern Carolinas.
...Northern Rockies...
Steep mid-level lapse rates will reside over the northern Rockies
with a belt of stronger southwesterly winds aloft downstream from an
approaching upper trough. Diabatic heating over the higher terrain
should promote moderate instability with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
possible during the afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to
develop over the mountains and within corridor of deeper ascent
associated with the upper trough. Effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt
will support some organized structures including a few supercells
with isolated large hail and damaging wind possible from late
afternoon through mid evening.
...Central High Plains...
An easterly upslope component is expected over a portion of the
central Rockies Saturday afternoon, and storms are expected to
develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the High Plains
where dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F will promote moderate
instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Potential will exist for
vorticity maxima to move along northern periphery of upper ridge and
into the central High Plains. A risk for hail and downburst winds
may accompany the storms as they move into the High Plains. However,
vertical wind profiles and storm coverage will be modulated by the
timing and strength of these impulses which remains somewhat
uncertain at this time. Will therefore introduce a MRGL risk this
update will possible SLGT risk in later outlooks.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Storms may develop across the eastern Carolinas along and ahead of
the aforementioned front where richer low-level moisture will
support moderate instability. This region will also reside within
belt of 30-40 kt mid-level winds within base of an upper trough.
This environment will be conditionally favorable for a few strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and have therefore introduced a
MRGL risk category this update.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight
..Dial.. 08/09/2019
Read more
6 years ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and
evening mainly over the northern Rockies with large hail and
damaging wind the main threats. Other strong to severe storms are
possible over the central High Plains and coastal North Carolina.
...Synopsis...
An omega blocking pattern will prevail over the U.S. Saturday with
an upper ridge situated over the southern Plains flanked by upper
troughs over the western and eastern states. At the surface a cold
front should extend from a weak surface low over eastern SD
southwest into northwest NE and move slowly southeast during the
day. A quasi-stationary front will extend southeast from the low
through the middle MS and into the TN Valley regions. Farther north
another cold front will move southward into the northern Plains. A
quasi-stationary front will reside across the eastern Carolinas.
...Northern Rockies...
Steep mid-level lapse rates will reside over the northern Rockies
with a belt of stronger southwesterly winds aloft downstream from an
approaching upper trough. Diabatic heating over the higher terrain
should promote moderate instability with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
possible during the afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to
develop over the mountains and within corridor of deeper ascent
associated with the upper trough. Effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt
will support some organized structures including a few supercells
with isolated large hail and damaging wind possible from late
afternoon through mid evening.
...Central High Plains...
An easterly upslope component is expected over a portion of the
central Rockies Saturday afternoon, and storms are expected to
develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the High Plains
where dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F will promote moderate
instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Potential will exist for
vorticity maxima to move along northern periphery of upper ridge and
into the central High Plains. A risk for hail and downburst winds
may accompany the storms as they move into the High Plains. However,
vertical wind profiles and storm coverage will be modulated by the
timing and strength of these impulses which remains somewhat
uncertain at this time. Will therefore introduce a MRGL risk this
update will possible SLGT risk in later outlooks.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Storms may develop across the eastern Carolinas along and ahead of
the aforementioned front where richer low-level moisture will
support moderate instability. This region will also reside within
belt of 30-40 kt mid-level winds within base of an upper trough.
This environment will be conditionally favorable for a few strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and have therefore introduced a
MRGL risk category this update.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight
..Dial.. 08/09/2019
Read more
6 years ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are expected Saturday afternoon and
evening mainly over the northern Rockies with large hail and
damaging wind the main threats. Other strong to severe storms are
possible over the central High Plains and coastal North Carolina.
...Synopsis...
An omega blocking pattern will prevail over the U.S. Saturday with
an upper ridge situated over the southern Plains flanked by upper
troughs over the western and eastern states. At the surface a cold
front should extend from a weak surface low over eastern SD
southwest into northwest NE and move slowly southeast during the
day. A quasi-stationary front will extend southeast from the low
through the middle MS and into the TN Valley regions. Farther north
another cold front will move southward into the northern Plains. A
quasi-stationary front will reside across the eastern Carolinas.
...Northern Rockies...
Steep mid-level lapse rates will reside over the northern Rockies
with a belt of stronger southwesterly winds aloft downstream from an
approaching upper trough. Diabatic heating over the higher terrain
should promote moderate instability with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
possible during the afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to
develop over the mountains and within corridor of deeper ascent
associated with the upper trough. Effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt
will support some organized structures including a few supercells
with isolated large hail and damaging wind possible from late
afternoon through mid evening.
...Central High Plains...
An easterly upslope component is expected over a portion of the
central Rockies Saturday afternoon, and storms are expected to
develop over the higher terrain and spread east into the High Plains
where dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F will promote moderate
instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Potential will exist for
vorticity maxima to move along northern periphery of upper ridge and
into the central High Plains. A risk for hail and downburst winds
may accompany the storms as they move into the High Plains. However,
vertical wind profiles and storm coverage will be modulated by the
timing and strength of these impulses which remains somewhat
uncertain at this time. Will therefore introduce a MRGL risk this
update will possible SLGT risk in later outlooks.
...Coastal North Carolina...
Storms may develop across the eastern Carolinas along and ahead of
the aforementioned front where richer low-level moisture will
support moderate instability. This region will also reside within
belt of 30-40 kt mid-level winds within base of an upper trough.
This environment will be conditionally favorable for a few strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and have therefore introduced a
MRGL risk category this update.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight
..Dial.. 08/09/2019
Read more
6 years ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CENTRAL OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely over parts of the Northern Plains and over
parts of Oregon. A few strong to severe storms are also possible
over parts of the Mid Atlantic and central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with
upper troughs over the West Coast and from the Great Lakes into
Northeast. A surface low will develop from SD southward across the
High Plains, with a stationary front extending east from the SD low
across the MO and OH Valleys. A moist air mass will remain over much
of the Plains, and will result in unstable conditions especially
over SD and NE where minor disturbances will round the upper ridge,
enhancing shear and lift. Farther east, the primary synoptic
boundary will move east as a cold front across VA and the Delmarva,
providing a focus for storms.
To the west, cooling aloft will aid destabilization over OR and
western ID, with increasing winds aloft aiding in severe potential
during the afternoon and evening.
...Northern Plains...
A few storms are possible early in the day moving from west to east
across SD in a zone of low-level warm advection with 30 kt southerly
winds at 850 mb. In the wake of this activity, strong heating will
occur across WY and western NE, with the low-level lapse rate plume
extending into southwest SD. Heating combined with a plume of mid
60s F dewpoints will lead to areas of strong instability, beneath
modest westerly midlevel winds. Storms are expected to initiate by
21Z along a line from west-central SD into parts of the NE
Panhandle, and few could be supercells. Lapse rates aloft will not
be particularly steep due to warming aloft but large hail is still
likely given cellular storm mode. A brief tornado or two cannot be
ruled out as effective SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 east of where
storms initiate.
...Oregon...
Strong heating beneath cooling profiles aloft will lead to very
steep lapse rates through a deep layer, while winds aloft also
increase with the approaching upper trough. Storms are expected to
initiate over southern OR by afternoon in a zone of increasing
differential divergence, and will spread northward across the state,
and possibly into western ID as well. A few storms may contain small
hail but the main threat is expected to be damaging outflow winds.
...Mid Atlantic...
Relatively strong northwest flow aloft will remain over the region
with the main upper trough over the Northeast. Strong heating will
occur ahead of the cold front, with storms initiating after 18Z over
central VA, spreading southeastward during the afternoon. Although
storm coverage may remain isolated, any storms will have both hail
and wind potential given favorable time of day, and sufficient
deep-layer shear to sustain storms for several hours.
..Jewell/Cook.. 08/09/2019
Read more
6 years ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CENTRAL OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely over parts of the Northern Plains and over
parts of Oregon. A few strong to severe storms are also possible
over parts of the Mid Atlantic and central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with
upper troughs over the West Coast and from the Great Lakes into
Northeast. A surface low will develop from SD southward across the
High Plains, with a stationary front extending east from the SD low
across the MO and OH Valleys. A moist air mass will remain over much
of the Plains, and will result in unstable conditions especially
over SD and NE where minor disturbances will round the upper ridge,
enhancing shear and lift. Farther east, the primary synoptic
boundary will move east as a cold front across VA and the Delmarva,
providing a focus for storms.
To the west, cooling aloft will aid destabilization over OR and
western ID, with increasing winds aloft aiding in severe potential
during the afternoon and evening.
...Northern Plains...
A few storms are possible early in the day moving from west to east
across SD in a zone of low-level warm advection with 30 kt southerly
winds at 850 mb. In the wake of this activity, strong heating will
occur across WY and western NE, with the low-level lapse rate plume
extending into southwest SD. Heating combined with a plume of mid
60s F dewpoints will lead to areas of strong instability, beneath
modest westerly midlevel winds. Storms are expected to initiate by
21Z along a line from west-central SD into parts of the NE
Panhandle, and few could be supercells. Lapse rates aloft will not
be particularly steep due to warming aloft but large hail is still
likely given cellular storm mode. A brief tornado or two cannot be
ruled out as effective SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 east of where
storms initiate.
...Oregon...
Strong heating beneath cooling profiles aloft will lead to very
steep lapse rates through a deep layer, while winds aloft also
increase with the approaching upper trough. Storms are expected to
initiate over southern OR by afternoon in a zone of increasing
differential divergence, and will spread northward across the state,
and possibly into western ID as well. A few storms may contain small
hail but the main threat is expected to be damaging outflow winds.
...Mid Atlantic...
Relatively strong northwest flow aloft will remain over the region
with the main upper trough over the Northeast. Strong heating will
occur ahead of the cold front, with storms initiating after 18Z over
central VA, spreading southeastward during the afternoon. Although
storm coverage may remain isolated, any storms will have both hail
and wind potential given favorable time of day, and sufficient
deep-layer shear to sustain storms for several hours.
..Jewell/Cook.. 08/09/2019
Read more
6 years ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2019
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CENTRAL OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely over parts of the Northern Plains and over
parts of Oregon. A few strong to severe storms are also possible
over parts of the Mid Atlantic and central High Plains.
...Synopsis...
An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with
upper troughs over the West Coast and from the Great Lakes into
Northeast. A surface low will develop from SD southward across the
High Plains, with a stationary front extending east from the SD low
across the MO and OH Valleys. A moist air mass will remain over much
of the Plains, and will result in unstable conditions especially
over SD and NE where minor disturbances will round the upper ridge,
enhancing shear and lift. Farther east, the primary synoptic
boundary will move east as a cold front across VA and the Delmarva,
providing a focus for storms.
To the west, cooling aloft will aid destabilization over OR and
western ID, with increasing winds aloft aiding in severe potential
during the afternoon and evening.
...Northern Plains...
A few storms are possible early in the day moving from west to east
across SD in a zone of low-level warm advection with 30 kt southerly
winds at 850 mb. In the wake of this activity, strong heating will
occur across WY and western NE, with the low-level lapse rate plume
extending into southwest SD. Heating combined with a plume of mid
60s F dewpoints will lead to areas of strong instability, beneath
modest westerly midlevel winds. Storms are expected to initiate by
21Z along a line from west-central SD into parts of the NE
Panhandle, and few could be supercells. Lapse rates aloft will not
be particularly steep due to warming aloft but large hail is still
likely given cellular storm mode. A brief tornado or two cannot be
ruled out as effective SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 east of where
storms initiate.
...Oregon...
Strong heating beneath cooling profiles aloft will lead to very
steep lapse rates through a deep layer, while winds aloft also
increase with the approaching upper trough. Storms are expected to
initiate over southern OR by afternoon in a zone of increasing
differential divergence, and will spread northward across the state,
and possibly into western ID as well. A few storms may contain small
hail but the main threat is expected to be damaging outflow winds.
...Mid Atlantic...
Relatively strong northwest flow aloft will remain over the region
with the main upper trough over the Northeast. Strong heating will
occur ahead of the cold front, with storms initiating after 18Z over
central VA, spreading southeastward during the afternoon. Although
storm coverage may remain isolated, any storms will have both hail
and wind potential given favorable time of day, and sufficient
deep-layer shear to sustain storms for several hours.
..Jewell/Cook.. 08/09/2019
Read more
6 years ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley,
and over parts of the Central Plains through evening.
...Ohio Valley...
Scattered storms persist near the cold front, from southern IN
across central OH and into WV. These cells may produce marginally
severe hail, with storm longevity aided by long, straight
hodographs. Ample moisture and instability remains mainly north of
the OH River, in part due to cool temperatures aloft, and will
support strong storms for a few hours before the boundary layer
cools and stabilizes.
...Central Plains...
Widely spaced storms persist across the central High Plains, along
with isolated cells into central NE and eastern OK. Given that the
area is beneath the upper ridge, the loss of heating should result
in a downward trend in storm strength. Marginal hail or wind gusts
are possible with the strongest storms through early evening.
Additional storms are possible this evening and overnight near an
east-west stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across OK
and into AR. While shear will remain weak, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
along with nocturnal warm advection with southwesterly 850 mb flow
will support scattered storms through early morning. A few strong
wind gusts cannot be ruled out with rather disorganized convection.
..Jewell.. 08/09/2019
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6 years ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 8 23:30:06 UTC 2019.
6 years ago
WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE ABE
TO 30 N EWR TO 35 E POU TO 20 NNE BAF TO 20 N EEN.
..COOK..08/08/19
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-003-007-009-013-090040-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD HARTFORD MIDDLESEX
NEW HAVEN TOLLAND
MAC011-013-015-090040-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE
NJC003-031-090040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN PASSAIC
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6 years ago
WW 563 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA VT 082040Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
western and central Connecticut
western Massachusetts
northern New Jersey
southeastern New York
parts of eastern Pennsylvania
southern Vermont
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight
EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across southeast New York/northeast
Pennsylvania and vicinity at this time will continue eastward over
the next few hours, accompanied by a risk for locally damaging
winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast
of Keene NH to 60 miles southwest of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 562...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Goss
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6 years ago
WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 562
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE PKB
TO 10 W PIT TO 15 NNW LBE TO 5 WSW UNV TO 20 ESE AVP TO 30 SSW
PSF TO 10 N PSF TO 10 SW RUT.
..COOK..08/08/19
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BGM...BUF...BTV...ALY...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC023-082340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARRETT
NYC027-082340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUTCHESS
PAC003-009-013-021-037-051-059-061-069-079-087-093-097-103-109-
111-119-125-129-082340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY BEDFORD BLAIR
CAMBRIA COLUMBIA FAYETTE
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6 years ago
WW 562 SEVERE TSTM MD NY OH PA WV LO 081635Z - 090000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
far western Maryland
central and northern New York
parts of eastern Ohio
a large portion of Pennsylvania
the western panhandle of West Virginia
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM
until 800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A band of strong/locally severe thunderstorms continues to
organize as it moves across western New York/northern Pennsylvania,
with other/more isolated storms to continue increasing from eastern
Ohio eastward across Pennsylvania. Locally damaging winds will
occur with the strongest storms, along with some hail risk.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast
of Utica NY to 45 miles southwest of Latrobe PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Goss
Read more
6 years ago
WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 562
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ZZV TO
5 NW PIT TO 25 S DUJ TO 30 NW AVP TO 20 WNW MSV TO 40 NE MSV TO
15 SW ALB TO 30 NW ALB TO 30 SSE SLK.
..COOK..08/08/19
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BGM...BUF...BTV...ALY...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC023-082240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARRETT
NYC001-021-027-039-083-091-093-105-111-113-115-082240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY COLUMBIA DUTCHESS
GREENE RENSSELAER SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY SULLIVAN ULSTER
WARREN WASHINGTON
OHC013-019-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-082240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
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6 years ago
WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COOK..08/08/19
ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-003-005-007-009-013-082240-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD
MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN TOLLAND
MAC003-011-013-015-082240-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE
NJC003-031-037-041-082240-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN PASSAIC SUSSEX
WARREN
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6 years ago
WW 0562 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 562
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE PIT TO
35 NNE IPT TO 35 N MSV TO 40 N UCA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1676
..SMITH..08/08/19
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...BGM...BUF...BTV...ALY...CTP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC023-082130-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARRETT
NYC001-021-025-027-033-035-039-041-043-057-083-089-091-093-095-
105-111-113-115-082130-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY COLUMBIA DELAWARE
DUTCHESS FRANKLIN FULTON
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
MONTGOMERY RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE
SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE
SULLIVAN ULSTER WARREN
WASHINGTON
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Checked
5 years 10 months ago
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