Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave will move from northern Nevada into Wyoming today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Great Basin and be present from southwest Wyoming southwestward into northwest Arizona by the afternoon. Deep mixing ahead of this cold front will transport stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in central Wyoming. Relative humidity in this region should be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are likely from northeast Arizona into central Wyoming and an elevated delineation highlights this area. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave will move from northern Nevada into Wyoming today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Great Basin and be present from southwest Wyoming southwestward into northwest Arizona by the afternoon. Deep mixing ahead of this cold front will transport stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in central Wyoming. Relative humidity in this region should be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are likely from northeast Arizona into central Wyoming and an elevated delineation highlights this area. ..Bentley.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, with strong upper-level southwesterlies and cooling aloft approaching the Rocky Mountains into Thursday morning. Ahead of this trough, a fast-moving, compact shortwave trough will move from MN into Ontario while an upper ridge remains over the mid and lower MS Valley. Beneath the upper ridge, a warm core disturbance is forecast to move into southeast TX, providing heavy precipitation. At the surface, a weak front will stall over the northern Plains behind the leading wave, with a moist air mass extending southwest to the Gulf of Mexico. ...Eastern NE into western WI... Storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning associated with a low-level jet and warm advection from IA into MN and northwest WI. Shear will be weak but plenty of instability will support heavy rain, gusty winds. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a locally strong wind gust or marginal hail report cannot be ruled out during the afternoon as isolated storms regenerate along the weak boundary. ...Upper TX Coast... A disturbance in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move northwestward into southeast TX, with the primary concern very heavy rainfall. Predictability is low regarding wind fields and thus tornado risk. Should the system become stronger than currently forecast, shear profiles may necessitate low tornado probabilities in later outlooks. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Jewell.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, with strong upper-level southwesterlies and cooling aloft approaching the Rocky Mountains into Thursday morning. Ahead of this trough, a fast-moving, compact shortwave trough will move from MN into Ontario while an upper ridge remains over the mid and lower MS Valley. Beneath the upper ridge, a warm core disturbance is forecast to move into southeast TX, providing heavy precipitation. At the surface, a weak front will stall over the northern Plains behind the leading wave, with a moist air mass extending southwest to the Gulf of Mexico. ...Eastern NE into western WI... Storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning associated with a low-level jet and warm advection from IA into MN and northwest WI. Shear will be weak but plenty of instability will support heavy rain, gusty winds. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a locally strong wind gust or marginal hail report cannot be ruled out during the afternoon as isolated storms regenerate along the weak boundary. ...Upper TX Coast... A disturbance in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move northwestward into southeast TX, with the primary concern very heavy rainfall. Predictability is low regarding wind fields and thus tornado risk. Should the system become stronger than currently forecast, shear profiles may necessitate low tornado probabilities in later outlooks. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Jewell.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, with strong upper-level southwesterlies and cooling aloft approaching the Rocky Mountains into Thursday morning. Ahead of this trough, a fast-moving, compact shortwave trough will move from MN into Ontario while an upper ridge remains over the mid and lower MS Valley. Beneath the upper ridge, a warm core disturbance is forecast to move into southeast TX, providing heavy precipitation. At the surface, a weak front will stall over the northern Plains behind the leading wave, with a moist air mass extending southwest to the Gulf of Mexico. ...Eastern NE into western WI... Storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning associated with a low-level jet and warm advection from IA into MN and northwest WI. Shear will be weak but plenty of instability will support heavy rain, gusty winds. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a locally strong wind gust or marginal hail report cannot be ruled out during the afternoon as isolated storms regenerate along the weak boundary. ...Upper TX Coast... A disturbance in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move northwestward into southeast TX, with the primary concern very heavy rainfall. Predictability is low regarding wind fields and thus tornado risk. Should the system become stronger than currently forecast, shear profiles may necessitate low tornado probabilities in later outlooks. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Jewell.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms are expected across the northern high Plains area afternoon/early evening, and may evolve overnight into the Upper Midwest. Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... A shortwave impulse over SD early this morning will continue to lift northeast across MN. Ongoing convection associated with this feature will spread across MN through midday and should remain elevated. This activity is not expected to be severe given the elevated nature of convection. Further southwest, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Great Basin to the eastern Dakotas/western MN by Wednesday morning. A surface low near the eastern MT/western ND/SK border will deepen during the afternoon as height falls begin to overspread the region. a surface trough/dryline will extend southward through the northern/central High Plains while a cold front shifts east across eastern MT by 00z. Deep layer flow will strengthen considerably as a mid/upper level jet streak overspreads the central High Plains and steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization by late afternoon. However, coverage/intensity of storms remains somewhat uncertain given a considerable dry slot and capping on the western fringes of the Midwestern upper ridge. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected near the triple point over eastern MT into northeast WY. Strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with the strongest cells as they shift east/northeast. Additional storms are expected to develop over eastern SD into MN after 03z ahead of the eastward-surging cold front. Storms should quickly grow into clusters or line segments as a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet increases. Strong gusts will be possible with the strongest cells, though forecast soundings suggest convection may remain elevated. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms are expected across the northern high Plains area afternoon/early evening, and may evolve overnight into the Upper Midwest. Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... A shortwave impulse over SD early this morning will continue to lift northeast across MN. Ongoing convection associated with this feature will spread across MN through midday and should remain elevated. This activity is not expected to be severe given the elevated nature of convection. Further southwest, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Great Basin to the eastern Dakotas/western MN by Wednesday morning. A surface low near the eastern MT/western ND/SK border will deepen during the afternoon as height falls begin to overspread the region. a surface trough/dryline will extend southward through the northern/central High Plains while a cold front shifts east across eastern MT by 00z. Deep layer flow will strengthen considerably as a mid/upper level jet streak overspreads the central High Plains and steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization by late afternoon. However, coverage/intensity of storms remains somewhat uncertain given a considerable dry slot and capping on the western fringes of the Midwestern upper ridge. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected near the triple point over eastern MT into northeast WY. Strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with the strongest cells as they shift east/northeast. Additional storms are expected to develop over eastern SD into MN after 03z ahead of the eastward-surging cold front. Storms should quickly grow into clusters or line segments as a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet increases. Strong gusts will be possible with the strongest cells, though forecast soundings suggest convection may remain elevated. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms are expected across the northern high Plains area afternoon/early evening, and may evolve overnight into the Upper Midwest. Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible. ...Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... A shortwave impulse over SD early this morning will continue to lift northeast across MN. Ongoing convection associated with this feature will spread across MN through midday and should remain elevated. This activity is not expected to be severe given the elevated nature of convection. Further southwest, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to lift northeast from the Great Basin to the eastern Dakotas/western MN by Wednesday morning. A surface low near the eastern MT/western ND/SK border will deepen during the afternoon as height falls begin to overspread the region. a surface trough/dryline will extend southward through the northern/central High Plains while a cold front shifts east across eastern MT by 00z. Deep layer flow will strengthen considerably as a mid/upper level jet streak overspreads the central High Plains and steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization by late afternoon. However, coverage/intensity of storms remains somewhat uncertain given a considerable dry slot and capping on the western fringes of the Midwestern upper ridge. Nevertheless, at least a few storms are expected near the triple point over eastern MT into northeast WY. Strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible with the strongest cells as they shift east/northeast. Additional storms are expected to develop over eastern SD into MN after 03z ahead of the eastward-surging cold front. Storms should quickly grow into clusters or line segments as a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet increases. Strong gusts will be possible with the strongest cells, though forecast soundings suggest convection may remain elevated. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk will remain limited overnight. ...01z Update... Adjustments to the general thunderstorm lines have been made based on latest observations and trends. The biggest change is the removal of thunder altogether across the lower Ohio Valley. Otherwise, thunderstorms will remain possible along the TX and LA Gulf Coasts as thunderstorms associated with a weak low continue to shift westward overnight. Additional isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms associated with the upper shortwave trough moving across into the Great Basin will continue through the overnight hours. Some strong gusts could occur across parts of the Great Basin given the strong background flow over the region, but convection itself should remain weak. Additional thunderstorms will develop in warm advection regime as a shortwave impulse/MCV lifts northeast across the eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest. ..Leitman.. 09/17/2019 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 16 22:46:01 UTC 2019.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 16 22:46:01 UTC 2019.

MD 1980 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1980 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0422 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Areas affected...Southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162122Z - 162245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of multicell thunderstorms is expected to continue for a few more hours with a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Several strong thunderstorm cores have developed in the last hour in southern Arizona with a few 1.5 to 2 inch MESH cores. However, any threat of large hail or damaging winds should be isolated and limited in time due to the relatively unorganized nature of the convection. The 20Z Yuma sounding shows flow less than 20 knots below 8km with effective shear less than 20 knots. Given the weak flow, expect any additional convection to remain unorganized with occasional multicell clusters. Dewpoints from the mid 50s to low 60s and temperatures in the 90s have yielded MLCAPE around 1500 to 2500 J/kg which will continue to support additional robust updraft development for the next 1 to 2 hours, where prior convection has not destabilized the boundary layer. No severe thunderstorm watch is expected. ..Bentley/Edwards.. 09/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 31761239 32271248 32781225 33081178 33081064 32601014 31590968 31290977 31321111 31761239 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk appears likely to remain minimal today and tonight. ...Discussion... No changes to the outlook are required at this time, as prior reasoning and thunder areas continue to reflect the latest thinking. While a briefly strong/possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana, parts of the West, including Arizona, this afternoon, and over the Minnesota vicinity tonight, risk appears too minimal in all areas to require addition of probability area. ..Goss.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin as the trough moves eastward. Elsewhere, multiple shortwave troughs will eject northeastward from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, resulting in the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms from the High Plains today into portions of the Dakotas/Minnesota late tonight. A weak mid/upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf will produce widespread convection, with some of this activity spreading inland into coastal portions of LA/TX later today and tonight. While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out across the Interior Northwest/Great Basin into the Intermountain West, near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, and also across the eastern Dakotas into MN late tonight, the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to generally remain low through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk appears likely to remain minimal today and tonight. ...Discussion... No changes to the outlook are required at this time, as prior reasoning and thunder areas continue to reflect the latest thinking. While a briefly strong/possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana, parts of the West, including Arizona, this afternoon, and over the Minnesota vicinity tonight, risk appears too minimal in all areas to require addition of probability area. ..Goss.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin as the trough moves eastward. Elsewhere, multiple shortwave troughs will eject northeastward from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, resulting in the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms from the High Plains today into portions of the Dakotas/Minnesota late tonight. A weak mid/upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf will produce widespread convection, with some of this activity spreading inland into coastal portions of LA/TX later today and tonight. While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out across the Interior Northwest/Great Basin into the Intermountain West, near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, and also across the eastern Dakotas into MN late tonight, the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to generally remain low through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk appears likely to remain minimal today and tonight. ...Discussion... No changes to the outlook are required at this time, as prior reasoning and thunder areas continue to reflect the latest thinking. While a briefly strong/possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana, parts of the West, including Arizona, this afternoon, and over the Minnesota vicinity tonight, risk appears too minimal in all areas to require addition of probability area. ..Goss.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin as the trough moves eastward. Elsewhere, multiple shortwave troughs will eject northeastward from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, resulting in the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms from the High Plains today into portions of the Dakotas/Minnesota late tonight. A weak mid/upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf will produce widespread convection, with some of this activity spreading inland into coastal portions of LA/TX later today and tonight. While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out across the Interior Northwest/Great Basin into the Intermountain West, near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, and also across the eastern Dakotas into MN late tonight, the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to generally remain low through the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe risk appears likely to remain minimal today and tonight. ...Discussion... No changes to the outlook are required at this time, as prior reasoning and thunder areas continue to reflect the latest thinking. While a briefly strong/possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out over the Gulf Coast of Texas/Louisiana, parts of the West, including Arizona, this afternoon, and over the Minnesota vicinity tonight, risk appears too minimal in all areas to require addition of probability area. ..Goss.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel trough, with associated cool midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates, will continue to progress inland over the Pacific Coast today and the Great Basin tonight. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin as the trough moves eastward. Elsewhere, multiple shortwave troughs will eject northeastward from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains, resulting in the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms from the High Plains today into portions of the Dakotas/Minnesota late tonight. A weak mid/upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf will produce widespread convection, with some of this activity spreading inland into coastal portions of LA/TX later today and tonight. While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out across the Interior Northwest/Great Basin into the Intermountain West, near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, and also across the eastern Dakotas into MN late tonight, the potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to generally remain low through the period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z A few adjustments were made to the previous forecast. First, the elevated area across portions of northern Arizona was reduced slightly based on indications that RH values will remain too high to warrant elevated fire-weather potential for parts of this region. Secondly, the elevated area was expanded into portions of central and east-central Wyoming, where it appears a negatively tilted short-wave trough will quickly pivot through the region, providing enhanced flow that, in the immediate wake of this feature, should mix toward the surface and result in dry/breezy downslope conditions within a focused corridor along the front range amidst marginally receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough over the western CONUS is expected to deamplify and move northeastward on Tuesday. This will weaken mid-level flow, however, some stronger flow will remain in eastern portions of the Great Basin. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions will be possible ahead of the surface cold front on Tuesday where wind speeds are expected to be 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity is expected to be 15 to 20 percent. Elsewhere, more moist conditions and lighter winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z A few adjustments were made to the previous forecast. First, the elevated area across portions of northern Arizona was reduced slightly based on indications that RH values will remain too high to warrant elevated fire-weather potential for parts of this region. Secondly, the elevated area was expanded into portions of central and east-central Wyoming, where it appears a negatively tilted short-wave trough will quickly pivot through the region, providing enhanced flow that, in the immediate wake of this feature, should mix toward the surface and result in dry/breezy downslope conditions within a focused corridor along the front range amidst marginally receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough over the western CONUS is expected to deamplify and move northeastward on Tuesday. This will weaken mid-level flow, however, some stronger flow will remain in eastern portions of the Great Basin. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions will be possible ahead of the surface cold front on Tuesday where wind speeds are expected to be 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity is expected to be 15 to 20 percent. Elsewhere, more moist conditions and lighter winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z A few adjustments were made to the previous forecast. First, the elevated area across portions of northern Arizona was reduced slightly based on indications that RH values will remain too high to warrant elevated fire-weather potential for parts of this region. Secondly, the elevated area was expanded into portions of central and east-central Wyoming, where it appears a negatively tilted short-wave trough will quickly pivot through the region, providing enhanced flow that, in the immediate wake of this feature, should mix toward the surface and result in dry/breezy downslope conditions within a focused corridor along the front range amidst marginally receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough over the western CONUS is expected to deamplify and move northeastward on Tuesday. This will weaken mid-level flow, however, some stronger flow will remain in eastern portions of the Great Basin. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions will be possible ahead of the surface cold front on Tuesday where wind speeds are expected to be 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity is expected to be 15 to 20 percent. Elsewhere, more moist conditions and lighter winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z A few adjustments were made to the previous forecast. First, the elevated area across portions of northern Arizona was reduced slightly based on indications that RH values will remain too high to warrant elevated fire-weather potential for parts of this region. Secondly, the elevated area was expanded into portions of central and east-central Wyoming, where it appears a negatively tilted short-wave trough will quickly pivot through the region, providing enhanced flow that, in the immediate wake of this feature, should mix toward the surface and result in dry/breezy downslope conditions within a focused corridor along the front range amidst marginally receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 09/16/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough over the western CONUS is expected to deamplify and move northeastward on Tuesday. This will weaken mid-level flow, however, some stronger flow will remain in eastern portions of the Great Basin. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions will be possible ahead of the surface cold front on Tuesday where wind speeds are expected to be 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity is expected to be 15 to 20 percent. Elsewhere, more moist conditions and lighter winds will limit the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more