Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A severe storm or two remains possible across the northern High Plains for a few more hours this evening, and overnight in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Northern High Plains... Thunderstorms ongoing across eastern MT into western SD/ND have produced several reports of 50+ mph wind gusts, with two severe gusts measuring 67 and 72 mph across western SD in the past couple of hours. This threat will continue to shift northeast across eastern MT and western ND over the next few hours before storms cross the international border. ...Upper Midwest Vicinity... Thunderstorms have developed across central SD in weak low level convergence along the surface dryline/effective cold front. Convection is expected to continue northeast and increase in coverage toward eastern SD into parts of MN and northwest IA overnight as a low level jet increases and modest forcing associated with the shortwave trough over MT/WY glances the region. Most of this activity will likely be elevated given convection is not expected until after 03z, but modest lapse rates in a favorable shear environment could produce some isolated, marginal severe hail with the strongest cells. There is a small chance that an isolated cell could become nearly surface-based along the immediate frontal boundary from central MN into northwest IA. If this occurs, strong gusts be possible. Furthermore, while very low, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given higher-quality moisture with eastward extent and backed low level flow enhancing 0-1 km SRH. ...Upper TX Coast to Southwest LA coast... Heavy rain is the main concern with Tropical Depression Imelda overnight. While backed low level flow in a moist and weakly unstable tropical airmass will result in effective SRH approaching 100-150 m2/s2 over the next 6 hours or so, stronger cells from Chambers County TX to Cameron Parish LA have only shown very weak cyclonic shear. Shear will become less favorable after around 06-09z and the threat for any tropical cyclone-related tornadoes appears negligible. ..Leitman.. 09/18/2019 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 17 22:31:02 UTC 2019.

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 17 22:31:02 UTC 2019.

MD 1981 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST WY...FAR SOUTHEAST MT...NORTHWEST SD...FAR SOUTHWEST ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1981 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Areas affected...far northeast WY...far southeast MT...northwest SD...far southwest ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172045Z - 172145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe gusts (60-70mph), associated with high-based thunderstorms, are possible this afternoon as storms move northeast into western parts of the Dakotas. The expected coverage/intensity of the severe risk will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A compact, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough, is moving northeast across central WY this afternoon. High-based, skeletal convection over central WY has gradually moved east into the western part of a low-level moisture/instability plume located over the Dakotas. Ample deep-layer shear will provide support for some storm organization. Coupled with evaporative cooling, the intensification of the background wind field is becoming more favorable for momentum transfer of stronger flow to the surface with the stronger downdrafts. A 53kt gust measured by the Gillette, WY ASOS at 2008z is probably indicative of gust potential with the strongest cores for at least the next several hours. Yet, the smaller storm size will probably confine the severe risk to isolated coverage before the risk gradually wanes later this evening as storms move northeast into west-central and northwest ND. ..Smith/Grams.. 09/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 44970510 46680411 46870329 46580255 46120223 43690356 43940450 44970510 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE MINNESOTA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A severe storm or two remains possible across the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening, and overnight in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments, no changes appear necessary to the outlook areas and supporting meteorological reasoning, at this time. ..Goss.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Northern High Plains... A vigorous shortwave trough over southeast ID will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclone near the ND/MT/SK border area will slowly move east into southern MB. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the shortwave trough within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet, but lingering convective inhibition and meager MLCAPE will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support isolated severe wind gusts from eastern WY/western SD during the late afternoon into western ND this evening. ...Upper Midwest... East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50-60 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. One or more pre-frontal convective clusters are expected to form within the warm conveyor near the SD/MN/IA/NE border area and spread northeast. Deep-layer flow will be decreasing with height, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize and the hail threat should be limited. However, an enlarged low-level hodograph may compensate for pronounced MLCIN and support a risk of locally damaging wind. ...Upper TX Coast... A weak tropical low east of Matagorda Bay will drift northward towards Houston through early Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection yielding very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE MINNESOTA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A severe storm or two remains possible across the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening, and overnight in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments, no changes appear necessary to the outlook areas and supporting meteorological reasoning, at this time. ..Goss.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Northern High Plains... A vigorous shortwave trough over southeast ID will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclone near the ND/MT/SK border area will slowly move east into southern MB. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the shortwave trough within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet, but lingering convective inhibition and meager MLCAPE will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support isolated severe wind gusts from eastern WY/western SD during the late afternoon into western ND this evening. ...Upper Midwest... East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50-60 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. One or more pre-frontal convective clusters are expected to form within the warm conveyor near the SD/MN/IA/NE border area and spread northeast. Deep-layer flow will be decreasing with height, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize and the hail threat should be limited. However, an enlarged low-level hodograph may compensate for pronounced MLCIN and support a risk of locally damaging wind. ...Upper TX Coast... A weak tropical low east of Matagorda Bay will drift northward towards Houston through early Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection yielding very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE MINNESOTA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A severe storm or two remains possible across the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening, and overnight in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments, no changes appear necessary to the outlook areas and supporting meteorological reasoning, at this time. ..Goss.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Northern High Plains... A vigorous shortwave trough over southeast ID will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclone near the ND/MT/SK border area will slowly move east into southern MB. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the shortwave trough within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet, but lingering convective inhibition and meager MLCAPE will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support isolated severe wind gusts from eastern WY/western SD during the late afternoon into western ND this evening. ...Upper Midwest... East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50-60 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. One or more pre-frontal convective clusters are expected to form within the warm conveyor near the SD/MN/IA/NE border area and spread northeast. Deep-layer flow will be decreasing with height, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize and the hail threat should be limited. However, an enlarged low-level hodograph may compensate for pronounced MLCIN and support a risk of locally damaging wind. ...Upper TX Coast... A weak tropical low east of Matagorda Bay will drift northward towards Houston through early Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection yielding very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE MINNESOTA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A severe storm or two remains possible across the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and evening, and overnight in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments, no changes appear necessary to the outlook areas and supporting meteorological reasoning, at this time. ..Goss.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Northern High Plains... A vigorous shortwave trough over southeast ID will eject northeastward to ND tonight. Surface cyclone near the ND/MT/SK border area will slowly move east into southern MB. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the shortwave trough within the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet, but lingering convective inhibition and meager MLCAPE will tend to limit storm coverage/intensity. Still, there will be enough downdraft and momentum transfer potential to support isolated severe wind gusts from eastern WY/western SD during the late afternoon into western ND this evening. ...Upper Midwest... East of the surface cold front moving across the Dakotas tonight, a low-level jet will strengthen to 50-60 kt from NE to MN. This will occur along the low-level moist axis, where moderate buoyancy will persist well into the overnight hours. One or more pre-frontal convective clusters are expected to form within the warm conveyor near the SD/MN/IA/NE border area and spread northeast. Deep-layer flow will be decreasing with height, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize and the hail threat should be limited. However, an enlarged low-level hodograph may compensate for pronounced MLCIN and support a risk of locally damaging wind. ...Upper TX Coast... A weak tropical low east of Matagorda Bay will drift northward towards Houston through early Wednesday. There is some potential for strengthening with this system prior to moving inland, though wind fields are not expected to become strong enough to support a threat for supercells/tornadoes. Otherwise, training convection yielding very heavy rainfall will be the main concern. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Critical fire weather conditions are still anticipated across southern NV, southwest/west-central UT, and far northwest AZ on Wednesday. ..Mosier.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A large amplitude upper-level trough will move into the western CONUS on Wednesday. Strengthening mid-level flow around the base of this trough will overspread the dry airmass in the Great Basin Wednesday. Deep mixing during the afternoon will transport 20 to 25 mph winds to the surface where surface relative humidity is expected to be around 10 to 15 percent. These conditions support a critical fire weather delineation in portions of the southern Great Basin. In addition to these fire weather conditions, this strong upper-level trough will also bring significant rainfall to most of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho which should significantly reduce fire weather threat in these regions for at least a few weeks and could possibly serve as a season ending event for many areas, especially considering the significant rainfall totals across these areas during the past week. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Critical fire weather conditions are still anticipated across southern NV, southwest/west-central UT, and far northwest AZ on Wednesday. ..Mosier.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A large amplitude upper-level trough will move into the western CONUS on Wednesday. Strengthening mid-level flow around the base of this trough will overspread the dry airmass in the Great Basin Wednesday. Deep mixing during the afternoon will transport 20 to 25 mph winds to the surface where surface relative humidity is expected to be around 10 to 15 percent. These conditions support a critical fire weather delineation in portions of the southern Great Basin. In addition to these fire weather conditions, this strong upper-level trough will also bring significant rainfall to most of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho which should significantly reduce fire weather threat in these regions for at least a few weeks and could possibly serve as a season ending event for many areas, especially considering the significant rainfall totals across these areas during the past week. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Critical fire weather conditions are still anticipated across southern NV, southwest/west-central UT, and far northwest AZ on Wednesday. ..Mosier.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A large amplitude upper-level trough will move into the western CONUS on Wednesday. Strengthening mid-level flow around the base of this trough will overspread the dry airmass in the Great Basin Wednesday. Deep mixing during the afternoon will transport 20 to 25 mph winds to the surface where surface relative humidity is expected to be around 10 to 15 percent. These conditions support a critical fire weather delineation in portions of the southern Great Basin. In addition to these fire weather conditions, this strong upper-level trough will also bring significant rainfall to most of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho which should significantly reduce fire weather threat in these regions for at least a few weeks and could possibly serve as a season ending event for many areas, especially considering the significant rainfall totals across these areas during the past week. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Critical fire weather conditions are still anticipated across southern NV, southwest/west-central UT, and far northwest AZ on Wednesday. ..Mosier.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A large amplitude upper-level trough will move into the western CONUS on Wednesday. Strengthening mid-level flow around the base of this trough will overspread the dry airmass in the Great Basin Wednesday. Deep mixing during the afternoon will transport 20 to 25 mph winds to the surface where surface relative humidity is expected to be around 10 to 15 percent. These conditions support a critical fire weather delineation in portions of the southern Great Basin. In addition to these fire weather conditions, this strong upper-level trough will also bring significant rainfall to most of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho which should significantly reduce fire weather threat in these regions for at least a few weeks and could possibly serve as a season ending event for many areas, especially considering the significant rainfall totals across these areas during the past week. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... Amplified flow aloft will continue across the U.S. Wednesday, as a trough shifts slowly southeastward across the western states, and a second lingers near the East Coast. In between, ridging will prevail from the southern Plains northeastward across the Great Lakes, and expand into the Northeast with time. Within the background ridging, T.D. 11 will likely drift northward/inland across the Texas Gulf Coastal Plain (please see the latest forecasts from the NHC for additional information regarding this system). Aside from the Depression, the other surface features of note will be a weakening cold front advancing across the Plains, and a second which is forecast to cross the Intermountain West ahead of the slowly digging western upper trough. An area of weakening convection is forecast across portions of the Upper Midwest ahead of the weakening cold front at the start of the period, with afternoon redevelopment of storms expected. However, while rather robust CAPE may fuel a few stronger storms, weak shear suggests disorganized cells, and thus minimal severe risk. Across eastern Texas and adjacent coastal Louisiana, occasional, weakly rotating cells may evolve, spreading inland from the western Gulf. The risk for a brief/weak tornado appears too low to include areally, at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Goss.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... Amplified flow aloft will continue across the U.S. Wednesday, as a trough shifts slowly southeastward across the western states, and a second lingers near the East Coast. In between, ridging will prevail from the southern Plains northeastward across the Great Lakes, and expand into the Northeast with time. Within the background ridging, T.D. 11 will likely drift northward/inland across the Texas Gulf Coastal Plain (please see the latest forecasts from the NHC for additional information regarding this system). Aside from the Depression, the other surface features of note will be a weakening cold front advancing across the Plains, and a second which is forecast to cross the Intermountain West ahead of the slowly digging western upper trough. An area of weakening convection is forecast across portions of the Upper Midwest ahead of the weakening cold front at the start of the period, with afternoon redevelopment of storms expected. However, while rather robust CAPE may fuel a few stronger storms, weak shear suggests disorganized cells, and thus minimal severe risk. Across eastern Texas and adjacent coastal Louisiana, occasional, weakly rotating cells may evolve, spreading inland from the western Gulf. The risk for a brief/weak tornado appears too low to include areally, at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Goss.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... Amplified flow aloft will continue across the U.S. Wednesday, as a trough shifts slowly southeastward across the western states, and a second lingers near the East Coast. In between, ridging will prevail from the southern Plains northeastward across the Great Lakes, and expand into the Northeast with time. Within the background ridging, T.D. 11 will likely drift northward/inland across the Texas Gulf Coastal Plain (please see the latest forecasts from the NHC for additional information regarding this system). Aside from the Depression, the other surface features of note will be a weakening cold front advancing across the Plains, and a second which is forecast to cross the Intermountain West ahead of the slowly digging western upper trough. An area of weakening convection is forecast across portions of the Upper Midwest ahead of the weakening cold front at the start of the period, with afternoon redevelopment of storms expected. However, while rather robust CAPE may fuel a few stronger storms, weak shear suggests disorganized cells, and thus minimal severe risk. Across eastern Texas and adjacent coastal Louisiana, occasional, weakly rotating cells may evolve, spreading inland from the western Gulf. The risk for a brief/weak tornado appears too low to include areally, at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Goss.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for severe weather appears low. ...Synopsis... Amplified flow aloft will continue across the U.S. Wednesday, as a trough shifts slowly southeastward across the western states, and a second lingers near the East Coast. In between, ridging will prevail from the southern Plains northeastward across the Great Lakes, and expand into the Northeast with time. Within the background ridging, T.D. 11 will likely drift northward/inland across the Texas Gulf Coastal Plain (please see the latest forecasts from the NHC for additional information regarding this system). Aside from the Depression, the other surface features of note will be a weakening cold front advancing across the Plains, and a second which is forecast to cross the Intermountain West ahead of the slowly digging western upper trough. An area of weakening convection is forecast across portions of the Upper Midwest ahead of the weakening cold front at the start of the period, with afternoon redevelopment of storms expected. However, while rather robust CAPE may fuel a few stronger storms, weak shear suggests disorganized cells, and thus minimal severe risk. Across eastern Texas and adjacent coastal Louisiana, occasional, weakly rotating cells may evolve, spreading inland from the western Gulf. The risk for a brief/weak tornado appears too low to include areally, at this time. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5% - None Hail: <5% - None ..Goss.. 09/17/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Northern AZ...Eastern UT...Northwest CO...Central/Eastern WY... Despite some light early morning rain across portions of northeast UT/northwest CO and south-central/central WY, elevated fire weather conditions are still anticipated this afternoon. Sustained winds in this area will likely range from 20 to 35 mph with gusts from 40-45 mph. Highest winds are expected across central WY. Afternoon RH values will likely range from 15-20 percent across northern AZ and eastern UT, with slightly higher values (i.e. 20-25 percent) anticipated farther north across northwest CO and south-central/central WY. Additionally, fast storm motion and limited moisture (i.e. PW values around 0.50-0.60 inch) will likely contribute to limited surface precipitation across southeast WY. As a result, a few dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. ..Mosier.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave will move from northern Nevada into Wyoming today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Great Basin and be present from southwest Wyoming southwestward into northwest Arizona by the afternoon. Deep mixing ahead of this cold front will transport stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in central Wyoming. Relative humidity in this region should be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are likely from northeast Arizona into central Wyoming and an elevated delineation highlights this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Northern AZ...Eastern UT...Northwest CO...Central/Eastern WY... Despite some light early morning rain across portions of northeast UT/northwest CO and south-central/central WY, elevated fire weather conditions are still anticipated this afternoon. Sustained winds in this area will likely range from 20 to 35 mph with gusts from 40-45 mph. Highest winds are expected across central WY. Afternoon RH values will likely range from 15-20 percent across northern AZ and eastern UT, with slightly higher values (i.e. 20-25 percent) anticipated farther north across northwest CO and south-central/central WY. Additionally, fast storm motion and limited moisture (i.e. PW values around 0.50-0.60 inch) will likely contribute to limited surface precipitation across southeast WY. As a result, a few dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. ..Mosier.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave will move from northern Nevada into Wyoming today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Great Basin and be present from southwest Wyoming southwestward into northwest Arizona by the afternoon. Deep mixing ahead of this cold front will transport stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in central Wyoming. Relative humidity in this region should be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are likely from northeast Arizona into central Wyoming and an elevated delineation highlights this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Northern AZ...Eastern UT...Northwest CO...Central/Eastern WY... Despite some light early morning rain across portions of northeast UT/northwest CO and south-central/central WY, elevated fire weather conditions are still anticipated this afternoon. Sustained winds in this area will likely range from 20 to 35 mph with gusts from 40-45 mph. Highest winds are expected across central WY. Afternoon RH values will likely range from 15-20 percent across northern AZ and eastern UT, with slightly higher values (i.e. 20-25 percent) anticipated farther north across northwest CO and south-central/central WY. Additionally, fast storm motion and limited moisture (i.e. PW values around 0.50-0.60 inch) will likely contribute to limited surface precipitation across southeast WY. As a result, a few dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. ..Mosier.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave will move from northern Nevada into Wyoming today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Great Basin and be present from southwest Wyoming southwestward into northwest Arizona by the afternoon. Deep mixing ahead of this cold front will transport stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in central Wyoming. Relative humidity in this region should be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are likely from northeast Arizona into central Wyoming and an elevated delineation highlights this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...Northern AZ...Eastern UT...Northwest CO...Central/Eastern WY... Despite some light early morning rain across portions of northeast UT/northwest CO and south-central/central WY, elevated fire weather conditions are still anticipated this afternoon. Sustained winds in this area will likely range from 20 to 35 mph with gusts from 40-45 mph. Highest winds are expected across central WY. Afternoon RH values will likely range from 15-20 percent across northern AZ and eastern UT, with slightly higher values (i.e. 20-25 percent) anticipated farther north across northwest CO and south-central/central WY. Additionally, fast storm motion and limited moisture (i.e. PW values around 0.50-0.60 inch) will likely contribute to limited surface precipitation across southeast WY. As a result, a few dry thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. ..Mosier.. 09/17/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019/ ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave will move from northern Nevada into Wyoming today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Great Basin and be present from southwest Wyoming southwestward into northwest Arizona by the afternoon. Deep mixing ahead of this cold front will transport stronger mid-level flow toward the surface with winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph with the strongest winds in central Wyoming. Relative humidity in this region should be in the 15 to 20 mph range. Therefore, a narrow corridor of elevated fire weather conditions are likely from northeast Arizona into central Wyoming and an elevated delineation highlights this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more