Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from around 1000-2000 J/kg. While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to remain north of the international border, but the cold front should provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity. However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer to the surface low, a tornado or two. ...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts. Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday. ...Northeast... A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from around 1000-2000 J/kg. While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to remain north of the international border, but the cold front should provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity. However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer to the surface low, a tornado or two. ...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts. Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E GRI TO 25 ESE OLU TO 30 SE SUX TO 20 WNW FRM. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-093-129-133-155-160540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON IDA MILLS MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE KSC089-183-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL SMITH NEC021-023-025-035-055-059-067-081-095-097-109-127-129-131-133- 151-153-155-159-169-177-181-185-160540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT BUTLER CASS CLAY DOUGLAS FILLMORE Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E GRI TO 25 ESE OLU TO 30 SE SUX TO 20 WNW FRM. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-093-129-133-155-160540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON IDA MILLS MONONA POTTAWATTAMIE KSC089-183-160540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL SMITH NEC021-023-025-035-055-059-067-081-095-097-109-127-129-131-133- 151-153-155-159-169-177-181-185-160540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT BUTLER CASS CLAY DOUGLAS FILLMORE Read more

MD 1683 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516... FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...southwestern Iowa...northeastern Kansas...northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516... Valid 160345Z - 160545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516 continues. SUMMARY...The ongoing cluster of storms has been generally weakening, but continues to promote strong surface gusts, which could still sporadically approach or exceed severe limits. This will continue to spread southeastward through Midnight-2 AM CDT, particularly across the southeast Nebraska vicinity. It is not clear that a new severe weather watch will be needed downstream, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Notable surface pressure rises (2-4+ mb 2-hourly) have been maintained within the cold pool on the southwestern flank of the forward propagating convective system, supporting the southeastward and southward advancement of the cold pool across the Norfolk, Columbus, Grand Island, Hastings, Kearney and Lexington vicinities of Nebraska. The more intense leading edge of the convection has become a bit more displaced above/to the cool side of the gust front, and now appears generally focused within forcing associated with warm advection, on the nose a strengthening southerly low-level jet associated with nocturnal boundary-layer decoupling. However, with increasing inhibition associated with the boundary-layer cooling, coupled with warmer mid-level temperatures with southeastward extent across the Missouri Valley and central Great Plains, it remains unclear how much longer near surface updraft inflow will be sufficient to maintain vigorous thunderstorm development. Based on the latest objective analysis, a corridor of better low-level moisture flanking the Missouri River vicinity might promote the best potential for lingering stronger thunderstorm development into 05-07Z time frame, which may be accompanied by a continuing potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40769781 41249726 41469664 41779617 42099594 41709482 40689486 40239492 39579573 39949661 40029745 40139852 40769781 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CPR TO 20 E CPR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 515 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/04Z. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC025-160400- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NATRONA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CPR TO 20 E CPR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 515 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/04Z. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC025-160400- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NATRONA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CPR TO 20 E CPR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 515 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/04Z. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC025-160400- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NATRONA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CPR TO 20 E CPR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 515 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/04Z. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC025-160400- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NATRONA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0515 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CPR TO 20 E CPR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 515 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/04Z. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 515 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC025-160400- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NATRONA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 515 SEVERE TSTM WY 152230Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms will likely intensify while moving eastward across central Wyoming, with the potential to produce severe outflow gusts up to 70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Riverton WY to 45 miles north northeast of Casper WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...WW 514... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0516 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE GRI TO 15 NW TQE TO 30 WNW SLB TO 30 SSW OTG TO 25 ENE FSD. ..KERR..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 516 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-071-085-093-129-133-141-143-155-160440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE FREMONT HARRISON IDA MILLS MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA POTTAWATTAMIE KSC089-183-160440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL SMITH MNC101-105-133-160440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MURRAY NOBLES ROCK Read more

MD 1682 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0819 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwestern Minnesota...southeastern South Dakota...northwestern Iowa...southern and eastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514... Valid 160119Z - 160245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...An organized convective system probably will maintain intensity with a continuing risk for strong to severe gusts as it propagates southeastward through 9-11 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Convection has grown upscale into an organizing convective system, including the evolution of a couple of notable embedded meso-beta scale cyclonic circulations. One associated southeastward cold pool surge is ongoing across/southeast of the Yankton SD vicinity, at a forward propagation around 30 kt. To the southwest, another southeastward surge across and southeast of Broken Bow NE is a bit slower, around 20 kt, but the nose of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet (in excess of 30 around 850 mb) may begin interacting with this portion of the QLCS by 03-04Z. Inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE appears likely to be maintained through this time frame, and perhaps a bit beyond. ..Kerr.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41259929 42069883 42109859 42729694 43849689 43699553 42899504 41149703 40319902 40800064 41259929 Read more