Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The only changes to the outlook with the 20z update were to remove general thunderstorm probabilities from Lower MI. Thunderstorm activity has shifted east into southern Ontario, and may persist across the lower Great Lakes into adjacent parts of OH/PA/NY through evening. Thunderstorm probabilities have also been removed from parts of central OR and WA based on latest forecast guidance. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon, aided by deep boundary-layer mixing into enhanced flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient. However, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather threat today. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon, aided by deep boundary-layer mixing into enhanced flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient. However, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather threat today. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon, aided by deep boundary-layer mixing into enhanced flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient. However, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather threat today. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon, aided by deep boundary-layer mixing into enhanced flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient. However, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather threat today. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon, aided by deep boundary-layer mixing into enhanced flow aloft and a tightening pressure gradient. However, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather threat today. ..Weinman.. 11/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong 500mb jet will drift slowly south through the day across the Southwest. As this occurs, some stronger mid-level flow may overlap a dry and well-mixed airmass across portions of the Southwest. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, but given fuel states still appear to be somewhat marginal, no Elevated delineation will be added. Relative humidity in the teens with 15 to 20 mph winds will continue to cure fine fuels in the region which may lead to greater severe weather concern later in the week. Additionally, dry conditions will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, winds will remain light in this region. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but large fire potential is somewhat muted by the light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the eastern/central CONUS while a shortwave upper trough develops south and east across the western U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will develop east/northeast across Quebec, with an attendant cold front shifting east across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A warm front will lift northward a bit across the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys. Modest surface low development is expected over the central Plains and southerly low-level flow will allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to the south of the warm front. While this low-level warm advection regime will persist, and some convergence along the warm front will be present, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm development. Elsewhere, dry and/or stable conditions will prevail and thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will continue moving quickly eastward across the Great Lakes today. A forced band of elevated convection tied to ascent with this shortwave trough and strong low-level warm advection will also advance eastward across MI today. Modest MUCAPE (generally 500 J/kg or less) and mainly linear mode should keep any hail threat very isolated at best. ...Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms appear possible through tonight across a broad part of WA/OR into northern CA, ID, and western MT as an upper trough progresses eastward across these areas through the period. Even with the presence of rather strong mid/upper-level flow and related deep-layer shear, weak instability should hinder the threat for organized severe thunderstorms. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust updrafts. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level flow regime will characterize the pattern today/tonight across the northern half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes quickly moving east. This disturbance will rotate through the base of a larger amplifying trough centered over southeastern Canada during the period. Weak elevated buoyancy (reference 12z Davenport, IA raob) atop a cool/stable boundary layer will result in a forced band of thunderstorms continuing east across mainly the northern 2/3rds of Lower MI through early afternoon. Farther west, a mid-level trough with a series of perturbations will move from the eastern Pacific into the northwestern CONUS during the period. Scant buoyancy will limit both storm coverage and intensity from the CA/OR/WA coast inland into the northern Rockies. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 11/06/2023 Read more