Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough will continue moving east across the northern Rockies/Great Basin today, with a modest downstream upper-level ridge shifting east over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A surface warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern MO tonight, with strong low-level warm advection expected to develop after 06z over southern WI/northern IL vicinity. RAP/NAM soundings suggest MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg will be possible in the 09-12z time frame with equilibrium temperatures cold enough to support isolated lightning with deeper updrafts. ...Elsewhere... The General Thunderstorm area along the immediate coast has been removed as the upper trough has shifted inland and the risk for additional lightning appears minimal. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will move eastward across the western CONUS through tonight. One of the embedded shortwaves is forecast to evolve into a deep-layer cyclone near the ND/Canadian border by this evening, while the southern portion of the trough moves across the Great Basin. A warm front is forecast to develop northward across the mid MS Valley and southwest Great Lakes this evening into the overnight. A strengthening low-level warm-air advection regime overnight may result in a few weak thunderstorms developing in the area centered over southern WI. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible near the immediate OR/northern CA coast early this morning before this activity wanes as the primary mid/upper-level trough moves inland across the West. ..Smith.. 11/07/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that the upper pattern will remain relatively progressive on D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave is forecast to move from the Southwest eastward across the southern and central Plains on D4/Friday, losing amplitude as it encounters the more confluent flow east of the Plains. Another shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of this lead wave, moving across the western CONUS on D4/Friday and the Plains on D5/Saturday. As this shortwave continues across the eastern CONUS on D6/Sunday, upper ridging will build in its wake across the Plains, amplifying the overall upper pattern. This amplified upper pattern is then expected to move eastward on D7/Monday, with the upper ridging moving across the Plains and MS Valley and a southern-stream shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico and into TX. Throughout this period, low-level moisture will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast, with stable conditions across the rest of the CONUS through the period. Thunderstorms are possible across southeast TX on D4/Friday. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated, but modest buoyancy will temper severe potential. After D4/Friday, any stronger mid/upper flow will be displaced north of the moisture along the Gulf Coast, limiting the severe potential. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Arklatex region as well as south Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely feature a southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Rockies through southern CA. This shortwave is forecast to progress gradually eastward, ending the period over the AZ/NM border. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to precede this deeper shortwave, moving quickly across TX and the Mid-South during the period. Evolution of this lead wave will aid in the modest surface cyclogenesis over the TX Coastal Plain, which will then aid in pushing the front farther south into the TX Gulf Coast. By early Friday morning, a weak surface low will likely be over the lower Sabine Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front from Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Arklatex vicinity where modest buoyancy could support a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning across south TX, where modest destabilization is anticipated amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the front. In both areas, vertical shear should be strong enough for organized storm structures. However, limited buoyancy will likely temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the severe thunderstorm potential low. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Arklatex region as well as south Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely feature a southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Rockies through southern CA. This shortwave is forecast to progress gradually eastward, ending the period over the AZ/NM border. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to precede this deeper shortwave, moving quickly across TX and the Mid-South during the period. Evolution of this lead wave will aid in the modest surface cyclogenesis over the TX Coastal Plain, which will then aid in pushing the front farther south into the TX Gulf Coast. By early Friday morning, a weak surface low will likely be over the lower Sabine Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front from Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Arklatex vicinity where modest buoyancy could support a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning across south TX, where modest destabilization is anticipated amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the front. In both areas, vertical shear should be strong enough for organized storm structures. However, limited buoyancy will likely temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the severe thunderstorm potential low. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Arklatex region as well as south Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely feature a southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Rockies through southern CA. This shortwave is forecast to progress gradually eastward, ending the period over the AZ/NM border. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to precede this deeper shortwave, moving quickly across TX and the Mid-South during the period. Evolution of this lead wave will aid in the modest surface cyclogenesis over the TX Coastal Plain, which will then aid in pushing the front farther south into the TX Gulf Coast. By early Friday morning, a weak surface low will likely be over the lower Sabine Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front from Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Arklatex vicinity where modest buoyancy could support a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning across south TX, where modest destabilization is anticipated amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the front. In both areas, vertical shear should be strong enough for organized storm structures. However, limited buoyancy will likely temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the severe thunderstorm potential low. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Arklatex region as well as south Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely feature a southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Rockies through southern CA. This shortwave is forecast to progress gradually eastward, ending the period over the AZ/NM border. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to precede this deeper shortwave, moving quickly across TX and the Mid-South during the period. Evolution of this lead wave will aid in the modest surface cyclogenesis over the TX Coastal Plain, which will then aid in pushing the front farther south into the TX Gulf Coast. By early Friday morning, a weak surface low will likely be over the lower Sabine Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front from Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Arklatex vicinity where modest buoyancy could support a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning across south TX, where modest destabilization is anticipated amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the front. In both areas, vertical shear should be strong enough for organized storm structures. However, limited buoyancy will likely temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the severe thunderstorm potential low. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Arklatex region as well as south Texas on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Upper pattern early Thursday will likely feature a southern-stream shortwave trough extending from the central Rockies through southern CA. This shortwave is forecast to progress gradually eastward, ending the period over the AZ/NM border. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to precede this deeper shortwave, moving quickly across TX and the Mid-South during the period. Evolution of this lead wave will aid in the modest surface cyclogenesis over the TX Coastal Plain, which will then aid in pushing the front farther south into the TX Gulf Coast. By early Friday morning, a weak surface low will likely be over the lower Sabine Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward along the TX Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front from Thursday morning through the afternoon in the Arklatex vicinity where modest buoyancy could support a few deeper updrafts capable of lightning. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning across south TX, where modest destabilization is anticipated amid mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of the front. In both areas, vertical shear should be strong enough for organized storm structures. However, limited buoyancy will likely temper updraft strength and duration, keeping the severe thunderstorm potential low. ..Mosier.. 11/07/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of high pressure will build into the Inter-Mountain West. This will bring cool conditions to most of the region with some windy conditions across the Plains in the wake of a southward moving cold front. As high pressure builds into the Great Basin, moderate Santa Ana winds are expected to develop across southern California. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added for Los Angeles, Ventura, and Riverside counties for this fire weather threat on Wednesday. Otherwise, low dewpoints across the Southeast into the southern Appalachians will continue to dry fuels in the region, but winds remain too light for any fire weather highlights. ..Bentley.. 11/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more