Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 1 22:33:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0181 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE SIERRA IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of the higher terrain over the Sierra in central California Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 011846Z - 020045Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to gradually increase through the afternoon and early evening hours at higher elevations along portions of the Sierra Nevada. Blizzard conditions should also become more widespread as snowfall and winds increase. DISCUSSION...Persistent precipitation continues across the northern half of CA as the primary trough axis associated with an upstream upper wave approaches the West Coast. VWP observations from southern OR to central CA have shown an uptick in mid-level winds over the past couple of hours - particularly within a belt of enhanced mid-level moisture notable in recent IR/water-vapor imagery. This mid-level flow is forecast to continue to increase through the afternoon and early evening hours as the trough approaches, which will bolster orographic ascent along the portions of the Sierra Nevada range. Latest surface observations and web cams continue to show areas of moderate to heavy snowfall ongoing roughly above 5 kft. Further intensification of snowfall rates - as high as 2-3 in/hour by late afternoon/early evening - is anticipated as ascent increases. Although ridge line winds in excess of 100 mph have already been reported at a few locations, wind gusts between 60-75 mph should become more common between 5-8 kft as stronger 800-700 mb winds approach the region. This should promote an increase in coverage of blizzard conditions heading into the late afternoon and evening hours. ..Moore.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 38221929 37951905 37801899 37661897 37541905 37471914 37521936 37751962 38432028 39062067 39572091 39802086 39862059 39752039 39202011 38972004 38531963 38221929 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track. The only changes made to the current forecast were to expand Elevated highlights farther south into Far West Texas, with expansions also made farther east into northwestern Oklahoma. Critical highlights were also expanded farther north into eastern Colorado, and farther east into western Kansas. Expansions were made to reflect the latest guidance consensus in dry and windy conditions supporting wildfire spread tomorrow/Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft crossing the Rockies during the afternoon. At the same time, a lee surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the northern High Plains, while a lee trough and tight surface pressure gradient develop southward along the central/southern High Plains. This evolution will lead to a large area of strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across much of the High Plains, where elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Strong downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing across the central/southern High Plains will support an expansive area of 10-percent minimum RH and temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s despite increasing high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. Here, the tightening surface pressure gradient and mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor widespread 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given drying of fine fuels across the region on D1/Friday, Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern CO, northeast NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, far western OK, and far southwest KS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track. The only changes made to the current forecast were to expand Elevated highlights farther south into Far West Texas, with expansions also made farther east into northwestern Oklahoma. Critical highlights were also expanded farther north into eastern Colorado, and farther east into western Kansas. Expansions were made to reflect the latest guidance consensus in dry and windy conditions supporting wildfire spread tomorrow/Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft crossing the Rockies during the afternoon. At the same time, a lee surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the northern High Plains, while a lee trough and tight surface pressure gradient develop southward along the central/southern High Plains. This evolution will lead to a large area of strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across much of the High Plains, where elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Strong downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing across the central/southern High Plains will support an expansive area of 10-percent minimum RH and temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s despite increasing high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. Here, the tightening surface pressure gradient and mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor widespread 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given drying of fine fuels across the region on D1/Friday, Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern CO, northeast NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, far western OK, and far southwest KS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track. The only changes made to the current forecast were to expand Elevated highlights farther south into Far West Texas, with expansions also made farther east into northwestern Oklahoma. Critical highlights were also expanded farther north into eastern Colorado, and farther east into western Kansas. Expansions were made to reflect the latest guidance consensus in dry and windy conditions supporting wildfire spread tomorrow/Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft crossing the Rockies during the afternoon. At the same time, a lee surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the northern High Plains, while a lee trough and tight surface pressure gradient develop southward along the central/southern High Plains. This evolution will lead to a large area of strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across much of the High Plains, where elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Strong downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing across the central/southern High Plains will support an expansive area of 10-percent minimum RH and temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s despite increasing high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. Here, the tightening surface pressure gradient and mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor widespread 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given drying of fine fuels across the region on D1/Friday, Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern CO, northeast NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, far western OK, and far southwest KS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the day on Saturday. Surface low associated with this shortwave will likely be over central NC early Saturday before then moving northeastward in tandem with its parent wave and ending the period just off the southern New England coast. Cold front attendant to this surface low will likely stretch back westward across southern GA and the western FL Panhandle early Saturday before gradually shifting southeastward and becoming increasingly diffuse with time. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within the warm-air advection zone near the low over coastal NC Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected in the vicinity of the front from southern GA and the FL Panhandle through the FL Peninsula. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the central Gulf of Mexico through northern FL Saturday evening into Sunday morning, helping to foster additional thunderstorm development behind the primary frontal zone throughout the evening. In all of these cases, limited buoyancy and weak vertical shear should mitigate the severe thunderstorm potential. Broad upper troughing is expected to deepen across the western CONUS while an embedded shortwave trough progresses within its base from central CA across the Great Basin and central Rockies. Despite relatively cool surface conditions, very cold mid-level temperatures associated with this trough will support steep lapse rates and limited buoyancy, mostly from the Pacific Northwest coast and over the Sacramento Valley. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout the period in these areas. Additionally, a few updrafts may become deep enough along the frontal band as it moves through the Great Basin to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the day on Saturday. Surface low associated with this shortwave will likely be over central NC early Saturday before then moving northeastward in tandem with its parent wave and ending the period just off the southern New England coast. Cold front attendant to this surface low will likely stretch back westward across southern GA and the western FL Panhandle early Saturday before gradually shifting southeastward and becoming increasingly diffuse with time. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within the warm-air advection zone near the low over coastal NC Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected in the vicinity of the front from southern GA and the FL Panhandle through the FL Peninsula. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the central Gulf of Mexico through northern FL Saturday evening into Sunday morning, helping to foster additional thunderstorm development behind the primary frontal zone throughout the evening. In all of these cases, limited buoyancy and weak vertical shear should mitigate the severe thunderstorm potential. Broad upper troughing is expected to deepen across the western CONUS while an embedded shortwave trough progresses within its base from central CA across the Great Basin and central Rockies. Despite relatively cool surface conditions, very cold mid-level temperatures associated with this trough will support steep lapse rates and limited buoyancy, mostly from the Pacific Northwest coast and over the Sacramento Valley. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout the period in these areas. Additionally, a few updrafts may become deep enough along the frontal band as it moves through the Great Basin to produce lightning. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Recent precipitation accumulations across the TX Panhandle vicinity will limit wildfire-spread potential today to some degree. However, the anticipated dry and breezy conditions this afternoon will encourage the priming of fuels, which may support significant wildfire-spread potential this weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a large-scale trough moving ashore over the West Coast, strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow will impinge on the Rockies, favoring a deepening lee trough over the High Plains. This pattern will favor a few areas of dry/breezy conditions along the High Plains during the afternoon. Over portions of eastern WY into western SD/NE, a belt of breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop along the southern periphery of a weak lee cyclone, and these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the overlap of breezy winds and low RH appears too brief/marginal for highlights given marginally receptive fuels. Farther south, breezy/gusty westerly surface winds are expected to coincide with 10-15 percent minimum RH along the central and southern High Plains. For the central High Plains, locally elevated conditions are possible along the I-25 corridor (especially in the gap-flow areas), though these conditions should remain too localized for Elevated highlights. From eastern NM into West TX, a larger area of Elevated meteorological conditions are expected, though recent measurable snowfall should mitigate the fire-weather threat in the short-term -- precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will peak this weekend in parts of the southern High Plains with adjacent portions of the central/southern Plains also seeing some degree of fire weather risk. The primary feature of interest will be a broad, low-amplitude trough in the West that will eventually lift northward by next week. Model variability is relatively high even beginning next Monday. However, fire weather concerns do appear to be less during next week and are not likely to increase until the next trough nears the Plains, which may not occur until late next week. ...Portions of Central/Southern Plains... Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest this weekend in parts of the southern High Plains. Recent snowfall has occurred in parts of eastern New Mexico into West Texas. While short term fuel dryness will be reduced, dry and windy conditions will occur beginning Friday and increase on Saturday and Sunday. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely on Saturday, but until certainty in fuel dryness after snow melt can be assessed probabilities will not be increased. Northern portions of the Texas Panhandle look to have observed much less precipitation making Critical conditions more likely in that area. Sunday will see similar conditions to Saturday. Fuels should have dried sufficiently from Saturday conditions to allow for greater Critical fire weather potential. Critical conditions on Sunday could extend into the Permian Basin, but confidence farther south away from the stronger 850/500 mb winds is lower. Model guidance already significantly diverges by Monday. The ECMWF shows a very flat trough lifting north while the GFS develops a secondary shortwave that pivots into the Southwest. The GFS solution would bring an additional day of critical fire weather for the southern High Plains. However, the GFS solution appears to be an outlier given its own high run-to-run variability and in comparison to the much more consistent signals in the ECMWF. ..Wendt.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more